In a little of a fortnight, the 2024 WTCS will kick off in Abu Dhabi. However, one of the most illustrious athletes in the Series will not be in attendance.
Indeed, four-time world champion Flora Duffy may not actually start at any WTCS events this year. While her attempt to become the first woman to defend an Olympic title appears to be very much on the agenda, the WTCS may fall by the wayside.
Notwithstanding Duffy’s dabbling with long distance triathlon, which forms a separate focus, her absence from the WTCS might not necessarily be a choice, but rather an outcome forced upon her season.
WTCS start lists are governed by the world rankings. The higher an athlete’s world ranking is, the easier it is to get on the start list. It is for this reason, for example, that Ivana Kuriackova embarked on a long-winded campaign of Continental Cup races in early 2023 in an attempt to boost her world ranking. She succeeded and soon after made her return to the Series.
Relying upon the world rankings offers a mostly impartial way of allocating slots to those that have earned it. However, it can punish athletes that had endured long-term absences. It is here that Duffy comes in.
Generally a place in the top-50 is enough to make it into the WTCS. However, Duffy is ranked 89th in the world. She has 1442 points and faces the obstacle of making up the best part of 500 points. As things stand, Ekaterina Shabalina is ranked 50th with 1928 points.
Even a World Cup win over the Sprint distance would not close the gap on its own, although an Olympic distance World Cup win should be enough.
The 2021 and 2022 world champion, Duffy has not raced since November 2022 due to injury. To win her first race back after such a lengthy absence could thus prove a challenge. Notably, under World Triathlon’s maternity policy, Duffy would have enjoyed a frozen world ranking had her absence been for pregnancy as opposed to injury. However, as things stand, there is no such frozen ranking for other long-term absences.
Duffy’s task of boosting her world ranking is also not aided by the upcoming World Cups, as they do not fully suit her points requirement. She is not due to race in Napier this weekend while the two events in March – Hong Kong and Lievin – will not realistically offer enough points (unless she finishes on the podium in both). The Olympic champion is also not on the Hong Kong start list anyway.
Thereafter, the two April World Cups in Wollongong and Chengdu come too late to secure entry for WTCS Yokohama. Chengdu falls on 29th April, less than a month out from WTCS Cagliari and so would likely not be useful on that front either. Wollongong will take place on 20th April which would be in time for Cagliari.
Assuming Duffy does not secure her two World Cup medals (or equivalent world ranking points), that would leave only WTCS Hamburg in July as a final Series stop before the Olympic Games. Given it has been so long since Duffy last raced, we simply do not know when she will start her 2024 season. Equally, we do not know what kind of form she will be in.
At her best, making up the 500 point gap would be child’s play. Furthermore, there will be ample time to get onto the Hamburg start lists with World Cups across April and May. After that, though, there will be one final WTCS stop (in Montreal) before the Final in Malaga.
As a result, there is a remote possibility right now of Duffy competing for the world title. Without the right combination of race results, there is also a chance she does not appear in the Series until Hamburg. Moreover, with Hamburg being only a fortnight before the Paris Olympics, she might eschew that race too in favour of final preparation.
Duffy has essentially locked up Olympic qualification and will be dialled in on her quest for a second gold. Should she achieve it, she will have a minimal incentive to return to the remainder of the WTCS season, not least as she will be out of contention for the title.
Beyond 2024 is also too far into the future to forecast with any real confidence but new challenges could also lead Duffy away from the WTCS after Paris.
Given that she will realistically be out of contention for the Series crown, will have limited scope to get into the May start lists (although it is not impossible by any means), and faces a potential Hamburg stop that might not suit her Paris preparation, one clear thread becomes clear.
There is a very real chance that we might not see Flora Duffy race in the WTCS again.
