After Oceania failed to earn a New Flag slot at the Tokyo Olympic Games, the situation looks different in the women’s event ahead of the Paris Olympics.
Manami Iijima of Guam is slated to take the Oceania New Flag slot after two recent Asia Cup medals pushed her up the world rankings. First came her 2nd place at the Asia Cup in Kota Kinabalu. A week later, she repeated the trick with a 2nd place at the Asia Cup in Hong Kong.
Those two results have lifted her to 161st in the world with 853 points (rounded to the nearest integer). With Australia and New Zealand all but guaranteed places in Paris, Iijima has no continental rivals for the Oceania New Flag slot. As such, her future is entirely in her hands.
One factor IIjima will have to be aware of is the the criterion of being in the top-180. That position is held by Margot Garabedian of Cambodia with 758 points. While Garabedian is not a competitor for the New Flag, the gap is 180th in the world is one of which Iijima will need to remain cognizant.
Based on her recent form, though, she has been trending in only one direction and will likely have no difficulties remaining in the top-180.
On the other hand, IIjima will lose three of her six “current” period scores to the “previous” period before the end of the Olympic qualifying window. So long as she replaces those scores, she will almost certainly claim the New Flag place. Her recent Asia Cup form means that she should have few issues in that regard.
On the chance that Iijima does slip out of top-180 in the world rankings, though, the Oceania New Flag would roll down to the Olympic rankings.
As things stand, Tereza Zimovjanova will be the last woman into the Games through the individual Olympic rankings. She is ranked 66th in that regard. As a fun aside Zimovjanova is actually ranked 100th in world rankings, which goes to show how different the two systems can be.
With Zimovjanova currently due to qualify for the Games, the Oceania New Flag place would roll down to Tilda Månsson in 67th. Månsson has 1847 points however that represents a minor advantage over the next eligible athlete, Zuzana Michalickova of Slovakia. Ranked 69th, Michalickova has 1811 points.
Both Månsson and Michalickova are also in the hunt for the European New Flag place which could also eliminate them from contention with respect to the Oceania New Flag.
Paulina Klimas (71st), Romana Gajdošová (82nd) and Ivana Kuriackova (83rd) will also have an eye on the roll down Oceania slot should Iijima fall out of the top-180 in the world rankings.
On balance, though, it does not feel likely that she will. So long as she stays injury-free over the coming months and can maintain her current performance levels, Iijima should be able to fly to flag for Guam at next year’s Olympic Games.
