Last week we looked at who would qualify for the Paris Olympic Games if the slots were allocated now. That made us wonder: is there any benefit to being ranked higher in the qualification rankings or is there an advantage to chasing?
More than anything, this is a question of psychology.
The rankings are a crucial piece of the Olympic puzzle. They form an important part of the individual qualification process as well as informing particular national selection policies. Spain, for example, have criteria that are explicitly tied to the world rankings. For a large number of athletes, points are what earns the golden ticket to the Games.
Some athletes will thrive on the prospect of hunting down those ahead. Others will benefit from the security that points in the bank provides.
In a way, the scenario is analogous to trying to win a title versus defending it. That being, the difference in the Olympic scenario is that neither athlete has yet won, one simply has a head start.
Within races, researchers like Greg Whyte, professor of applied sport and exercise science at Liverpool John Moores University, have suggested a preference for chasing or being chased comes down to the individual.
The most significant element in that sense seems to be psychological momentum which is notoriously hard to quantify.
If we look at Gwen Jorgensen as an example, she does not have the points to qualify for Paris. For a moment take out the vagaries of the USA team selection policy. Jorgensen is a long way back from qualifying. Some athletes would struggle with that reality. Jorgensen might not. After all, she has considerable experience to call upon to guide her.
The decisive moment comes when the number of points shifts. When an athlete like Jorgensen’s gap to the field closes, they gain psychological momentum. Similarly, an athlete that looks over their shoulder during the season to see their Olympic qualifying cushion has halved will come under psychological pressure.
The opposite is also true. If an athlete that is already ahead extends their lead, the momentum shifts even more decisively in their favour.
Why, then, might an athlete prefer to chase or be chased?
For starters, the security of being ahead and one foot into the Games will provide assurance to a lot of athletes. Some, though, may equally find that uncomfortable given it may trigger a risk of complacency.
On the flip side, chasing has the converse sensation of insecurity. For some, though, that will be energising whereas for others it may be paralysing.
Ultimately, the personality and preferences of the athlete will be vital.
In the coming year, we may see a number of athletes over-perform or under-perform as the pressure of their rankings begins to play a psychological role in their performance levels.
With the qualification window closing in May 2024, missteps will only become more costly.
So, if you were in the athletes’ shoes and trying to secure Olympic qualification, would you rather chase or be chased?
