As things stand, Team New Zealand are in line to qualify two men and two women to the Paris Olympic Games in 2024. As with the British and American teams, they will arrive in Paris with a defending Olympic medallist in their ranks after Hayden Wilde won individual bronze in Tokyo.
As a result, there is a strong likelihood they will be looking to pick up at least one medal in Paris. Indeed, from their selection policy, it is clear Triathlon New Zealand are gunning for more hardware.
How will the athletes be picked?
There are three criteria that an athlete can fulfil to earn selection for Paris by Triathlon New Zealand.
The first and most important is attaining a top-3 finish and being the highest finishing New Zealander of their gender at the Paris Test Event in August 2023. Any athlete that meets this criteria will have first priority for any team selection. It is for this reason that Hayden Wilde has made Paris a priority in his 2023 season.
The second criteria applies to any athlete that has achieved two or more top-8 placings at Nomination Events. What are Nomination Events, you might ask. As per the selection policy, a Nomination Event is either the Paris Test Event or an individual WTCS event during the Olympic qualification period.
The policy also states, in “the event that there are more athletes that meet the Secondary Criteria (two or more WTCS top-8s) than quota places available, the provisions of primary criteria (the Test Event) will apply”. That reinforces the value of the Test Event to any New Zealander looking to book their Olympic triathlon ticket.
The third and final criteria is entirely discretionary and enables the selectors to pick any eligible athlete that they feel can help the Mixed Team Relay to a top-8 finish in Paris or can achieve an individual top-16 finish in Paris. The relay takes priority in selection so if one athlete looks like they could finish 15th individually but another athlete looks like they can help the relay to a top-8 finish, the relay specialist will get the nod.
Who does the policy favour?
Hayden Wilde already has more than two WTCS top-8 finishes in the nomination period courtesy of his medals in Yokohama, Leeds, Montreal and Hamburg in 2022. In the event that no man earns a top-3 finish in Paris, he will almost certainly be the first man to be selected for New Zealand.
Currently, the next best male WTCS finish for New Zealand in the Qualification Period is Taylor Reid’s 17th from Montreal 2022. As such, there is no second New Zealand man that can be picked under the second criteria and that slot will very likely be discretionary.
On the women’s side, no New Zealand athlete has a top-8 WTCS finish since May 2022 (the start of the Qualification Period). As it stands, both women’s slots will be picked on a discretionary basis. With the emphasis on the Mixed Team Relay in the discretionary selection, though, the women that are better over the Olympic distance may had a slightly more uphill battle to be nominated.
Way too early team predictions
Hayden Wilde will be picked for the men’s team. That much is sure. Even if his plans at the Paris Test Event go awry, he has already done enough based on the policy to have earned selection and, as New Zealand’s best hope of an individual medal, he will go to Paris.
Taylor Reid is our bet for the second men’s pick. His selection will likely be discretionary at this rate but he has been a key player in the Mixed Team Relay for New Zealand.
Of course, someone young like Dylan McCullough or Saxon Morgan could break through. If any of them can achieve multiple WTCS top-8s in the next 16 months, then they will be in a strong position to claim the second men’s slot. Right now, though, we’re leaning towards Reid as the tried and trusted option. All things being equal, it will come down to Triathlon New Zealand picking in the interests of the Mixed Team Relay. With that in mind, Reid fits the bill.
The picture is a little harder to call on the women’s side.
Ainsley Thorpe is the front-runner. She is not yet a contender for a medal at the Paris Test Event but with a 6th at the Tongyeong World Cup and a 19th at WTCS Montreal, she could be developing towards those all-important WTCS top-8 finishes. As with Reid, though, it will require a bit of a jump and right now she seems likelier to receive a discretionary selection.
Nicole Van Der Kaay has a WTCS medal from Hamburg 2021. Although she did not attain that height again in 2022, she could bounce back this year. On paper, she would be one of the favourites to make the team.
Still, Eva Goodisson has some good World Cup results, while Andrea Hansen has all the experience in the world. It will likely be a very tight decision. To pick the New Zealand team way too far in advance, though, our gut says Wilde, Reid, Thorpe and Van Der Kaay will be in Paris.
You can view the full Triathlon New Zealand document below.
