New Zealand is famously a country without natural predators on land. Notwithstanding the few birds of prey that are indigenous to the region, the majority of the threats to native fauna have been imported.
In many ways, the New Zealand triathlon scene is similar.
Being a smaller country in the grand scheme of things, the New Zealand team has to carefully nature the few birds of prey that come its way. Last season, Nicole Van Der Kaay took the win at the New Plymouth World Cup and gave a clear example of the threat the home team can pose. However, at this year’s Napier World Cup, Van Der Kaay will be absent.
Among the top local threats will be Ainsley Thorpe, the silver medallist from New Plymouth last season, and without Van Der Kaay she has a clear run at the gold medal this time.
Beyond Thrope, a large home contingent will take on the women’s race in Napier in an early chance to assert themselves at the top of the domestic food chain. Generally, though, aside from its few birds of prey, New Zealand has an absence of world level contenders, or apex predators, particularly when Van Der Kaay and Thorpe are moved out of the mix. (With several yoiung prospects coming through the ranks, this could change, but no one else is yet a World Cup medallist.)
Rather, the biggest dangers to the podium may be those arriving in Napier from overseas.
Ilaria Zane, a double World Cup medallist in 2023, heads up the Italian team and will be a threat for another World Cup podium. Zane also won the Wanaka Oceania Cup last weekend and so has already proven herself on the New Zealand hunting grounds this season.
Erica Hawley and Gina Sereno are two further World Cup medallists that cannot be overlooked.
Looking to some of the younger faces in the field, Maria Tomé, the World U23 Championships silver medallist, could be a dark horse for the win. Should the field stay together, Tomé has the running speed to threaten anyone in the race. While Thorpe may be the best runner of the home team, the likes of Zane, Sereno, Tomé and more will be tough to beat.
Then there is Maria Carolina Velasquez Soto. The Colombian athlete finished 10th at WTCS Montreal last year and has one of the best recent WTCS results of the field. One question mark hanging over her, as with plenty of the foreign participants, it the impact of the travel to the race. In that respect, the home team certainly has the upper hand.
At the same time, athletes such as Zane that have already been in New Zealand for a longer stint will not have any such problems.
Velasquez is one of several athletes to bring real power on the bike. Xinyu Lin of China is another athlete cut from a similar cloth and the pair could shape the second discipline.
Likewise, athletes like Emma Jeffcoat, Desirae Ridenour and Yifan Yang could pile on the pressure in the swim and break the race up. Moreover, someone like Zsanett Kuttor-Bragmayer, who also achieved a WTCS top-10 finish in Montreal last season, could take advantage of any fracture in the swim or bike.
Across the board, then, it is clear that plenty of threats from overseas will be arriving in Napier and any of them could disturb the local status quo.
Equally, there is a lot of talent and young promise in the home team. The Napier World Cup may therefore prove a chance to find out whether they have some claws of their own or if the predators from overseas threats overwhelm them.
TriStats Predictions
- Ainsley Thorpe
- Ilaria Zane
- Maria Tomé
- Maria Carolina Velasquez Soto
- Xinyu Lin
