This race originally felt a little obvious. We had all the arguments worked out for how the race would unfold but now there is a little bit of doubt.
The 2022 WTCS has boiled down to a two-horse race between Olympic silver medallist Alex Yee and Olympic bronze medallist Hayden Wilde. As has been the case more often than not in 2022, it can be expected that Abu Dhabi will result in another closely fought race for the win between the two men.
The obvious point that jumped out was that Yee has not yet lost a top level race to Wilde. When they went up against one another at WTCS Yokohama and WTCS Montreal, Yee came out on top. Moreover, while a penalty against Wilde was involved, Yee also took the win at the Commonwealth Games in Birmingham in July.
Wilde does have two WTCS wins to his name this year, in Leeds and Hamburg. However, in Leeds Yee fell foul of a bike crash that ended his race. He also did not take the start line in Hamburg.
After taking the win at WTCS Cagliari, Yee has also won an Olympic distance race more recently of the two, although that is a tad misleading given Wilde has not yet won an Olympic distance race in the World Triathlon Championship Series.
Looking further back to previous editions of WTCS Abu Dhabi is also instructive. In 2021, Wilde did not have a great race by his new lofty standards, finishing in 8th. Yee, meanwhile, has fond memories of finishing 2nd in Abu Dhabi in 2019 on his WTCS debut.
Going by form, then, the omens seemed to be in Yee’s favour.
However, Yee’s race at WTCS Bermuda, where he placed 5th, changed things. Now Wilde will go into the Final ahead in the Series by 118 points. The win in Abu Dhabi is worth 1250 points while second place is worth 7.5% fewer points, or 93.75 fewer points. Therefore, if Wilde comes second, even a Yee win will not be enough for him to take the Series. You can use our simulator to see how every possible Yee-Wilde result could look.
Wilde has based himself in Abu Dhabi for the past few weeks, focusing on this race. The weight of the world title will also mean Yee has to race more aggressively, potentially opening the door for Wilde to counter. Although Wilde has not beaten Yee before, what better time to start than now.
Beyond the Series Win
Abu Dhabi will not be a simple race between Yee and Wilde though. The Tokyo Olympic gold medallist, Kristian Blummenfelt of Norway, is back. Blummenfelt has spent much of the season focused on long distance triathlon, culminating in his podium finish at the Ironman World Championships in Hawaii and his Ironman 70.3 World Championships win.
Blummenfelt has nevertheless dabbled in World Triathlon racing this season with a World Cup podium in his home town of Bergen and finished 6th earlier this month at WTCS Bermuda.
On his day, he may just be the pound-for-pound best triathlete in the world and it would certainly be a statement to the triathlon world if he could take down both Yee and Wilde. It is hard to see that happening given the stellar seasons Yee and Wilde have had. And yet, Blummenfelt went into Bermuda only a week removed from his World 70.3 Championships win and hung with Yee for the whole race. Given a few more weeks of rest and preparation, he could be lethal.
There are further challengers that could take the win in Abu Dhabi, most notably with the race winner from 2021, Jelle Geens. Geens is one of the best runners in the sport and comes off a difficult 18 months that included being forced to miss the Tokyo Olympics due to a COVID positive test. He bounced back with 4th in Bermuda, though, and given his history in Abu Dhabi, Geens could be a threat.
This season, he is in a tight contest for 3rd in the Series with Leo Bergere. Bergere has really stepped up his game this year and has consistently medalled on the WTCS circuit. He has shown some tactical nous, such as his bike breakaway in Leeds that helped him to silver that day, and it is hard to see any real fault in his armour. By contrast, Geens does have a weakness in the swim, which could hurt his chances. That being said, his swim did not stop him last year in Abu Dhabi.
The other two medallists from Abu Dhabi last year also return this year through Vincent Luis and Bence Bicsak. Bicsak has not yet hit the same heights in 2022 while Luis has suffered injury and heart issues.
However, Luis made a stunning return to the top of the podium in Bermuda. He could therefore be a dark horse to take another win in Abu Dhabi.
When it comes to WTCS medallists this season, there are two athletes that could have outside chances in Abu Dhabi. Lasse Luhrs and Manoel Messias have each won their first WTCS medal this season (Luhrs in Leeds and Messias in Cagliari), while Luhrs also came 4th in Cagliari.
Both men are coming off breakout years and have both the momentum and the running ability to mix with the front of the race.
The question is whether they can really challenge Yee and Wilde on the crucial leg of the run? In Abu Dhabi, it feels like they’re more in the fight for bronze with Geens and Bergere than the fight for gold and that next year they could be more of a threat.
Looking further down the start list, Pierre Le Corre took silver the European Championships in Munich and won the World Long Distance Triathlon Championships this year.
Jawad Abdelmoula has also been on the rise and came 3rd in WTCS Hamburg. However, as with some of the other men mentioned already, it feels like he and Le Corre will be competing for a bronze.
The course itself will likely be a factor as Abu Dhabi has not regularly been a venue geared towards aggressive racing and a running race is the most likely outcome. In such an event, it is hard to look past Yee to take the win. However, we predict Wilde will take second behind Yee and in doing so win this season’s title.
TriStats Predictions
- Alex Yee
- Hayden Wilde
- Kristian Blummenfelt
- Jelle Geens
- Leo Bergere
