As things stand in the men’s WTCS, the world title looks like it will be decided in a straight shoot-out between Alex Yee and Hayden Wilde.
Yee has three wins (Abu Dhabi, Cagliari, Paris) to his name as well as a bronze medal from WTCS Hamburg. Meanwhile, Wilde has wins in Yokohama and Hamburg under his belt to go with a silver medal from WTCS Cagliari and a bronze medal from WTCS Sunderland.
With 57 points separating the two, the athlete that crosses the line first at the Final in Pontevedra should take the championship.
However, one man is poised to play spoiler.
In 2023, Vasco Vilaca has won silver medals in Abu Dhabi, Hamburg and Paris. He also added a bronze medal at WTCS Yokohama. He therefore stands 215 points behind Yee. As a result, if he wins in Pontevedra, Yee misses the podium and Hayden Wilde finishes 3rd, Vilaca can become world champion.
If that sounds faintly familiar, that might be because it is almost exactly how Leo Bergere won the world title last year.
Heading into the 2022 Final, Bergere had results of 2nd in Leeds, 3rd in Hamburg (2021), 3rd in Yokohama and 3rd in Montreal to his name. That left him 3493 points, putting him 239 points behind Yee and 357 points behind Wilde, the then Series leader.
In a stunning finale to the season, Bergere won the Final, Yee slipped the 3rd place and Wilde ended up in 6th place.
Vilaca is therefore closer to the leader this time than Bergere was and has demonstrated even better WTCS form. Bergere did claim the European crown in 2022 which highlighted his prowess as a single day racer. Given his smaller deficit and greater number of silver medals, though, Vilaca has much more favourable odds of over-turning his deficit.
History could thus repeat itself and Vasco Vilaca could be this season’s Leo Bergere.
If it is possible for Vilaca to win, the question that follows will concern how he can make it happen.
Following the terrific running performances Yee and Wilde have produced this year, there is one strategy that strands out. Even though Vilaca is a wonderful runner and actually out-split both in Hamburg, over 10km he does not yet appear to be at their level.
As such, Vilaca will need to deploy the same approach used by Bergere last year. He will need to wholeheartedly commit to a breakaway from the first second of the race and hope that it sticks. Recent history suggests Vilaca has the ability to make it into such an attack.
At WTCS Bermuda 2022, he made the front pack led by Vincent Luis. His run did not hold up in the end but Vilaca is a more mature athlete now. In addition, the course in Pontevedra is not quite as testing on the legs as that in Bermuda.
If Vilaca emerges from the swim alongside Yee or Wilde or both, his chances of winning the world title are slim. At the same time, he could secure 3rd place overall with a sensible performance. Not only would that be a major step forward in his young career, but it would essentially guarantee his place on the Portuguese Olympic team.
There are reasons for Vilaca to not risk everything. And yet, the world title may be calling.
If he fully commits to an aggressive swim, he could perhaps find himself in a breakaway and put Yee and Wilde on the back foot. If it does not come off, he can try to recover on the bike.
Bergere did the impossible last year when he won the world title yet only a year later another talented athlete occupies the same position.
Lightning does not usually strike twice. But it could for Vilaca.
