Mexico have a fabulous squad of athletes slated to race at the Huatulco World Cup. On the women’s side, they have several that can fight for the win.
The obvious place to start is with Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal after her outstanding silver medal at WTCS Yokohama.
Her run in Japan was so good that it is hard to see anyone being able to overpower her on the final discipline this weekend. Moreover, given that she made the breakaway in Yokohama, she should be untroubled on the swim and bike. She also made it into the break on her way to 4th place at the New Plymouth World Cup
Although she missed the breakaway in Cagliari, she nonetheless performed well to take 10th. In what maybe was her third-best result of the season, Tapia produced a finish that almost no one else in the field can claim to have gotten close to in 2023.
Notwithstanding a mechanical or some other problem, she can be confident of another high finish. However, a medal is by no means a given. There are too many rivals on the Mexican team alone for that to be the case.
Perhaps the biggest threat is Anahi Alvarez Corral, the silver medallist at last year’s Valencia World Cup. We have mentioned her running ability on numerous occasions and, already this year, she has silver medals from the Americas Cup races in Punta Cana and Ixtapa.
Her swim is still a weak point and if she gives Tapia any space to escape in Huatulco it will be hard to come back. Alvarez could still potentially run through to take a medal or a top-5 in such a situation, but the win would be unlikely. On the other hand, if she can stay with her compatriot, then she will be able to unleash her full running speed. As one of the best runners in the sport, it will be hard to bet against Alvarez if she makes the front group. How she fares in the water, then, will likely shape her day.
At the same time, Cecilia Perez has already beaten Alvarez in Ixtapa. The experienced Mexican athlete also won in Salinas and won’t be easy to beat. Similarly Luisa Daniela Baca Vargas won the South American Champs in Lima and will be a threat.
As much as there are several fantastic runners in the Mexican set-up, Lizeth Rueda Santos will set a punishing pace in the swim. Based on pure pool times, Rueda Santos is among the very best swimmers in the sport. The chances of a breakaway could therefore be heavily influenced by her.
We mentioned Junior challengers in the men’s preview for Huatulco and the same is true here. Jimena Renata De La Peña Schott won both the North American Junior Championships and the Americas Junior Qualification Event in Punta Cana. At both races, her running ability was on full display. She is still very young so it is hard to gauge how she will cope at such a high level. If she can keep within striking distance out of T2, though, she will have a great shot at surprising a few people.
Before we get carried away and suggest Mexico could lock out the top-5, let’s also mention the other heavy-hitters.
When it comes to running speed, there are few with reputations as fearsome as Gwen Jorgensen. While WTCS Cagliari was not her day, Huatulco presents a different challenge. For starter’s the racing will be over the Sprint distance and the swim wil llikely be a little less intense than the WTCS level. After not having the race she wanted to in Sardinia, a reaction can be expected from the former Olympic champion.
Perhaps the best American shot at gold, though, comes from Gina Sereno. Sereno is a classy racer who won a silver medal at the Viña del Mar World Cup last year. She has the highest recent World Cup finish of any starting American and has the skillset to contend in almost any circumstance.
Another challenger will be Katie Zaferes. The 2019 world champion has wins from the Americas Cups in St. Peters and Punta Cana to her name already. Most significantly, she won both on the back of solo breakaways.
Zaferes beat Jorgensen with her breakaway tactic in St. Peters. Furthermore Jorgensen missed the breakaway at the New Plymouth World Cup, so there is a chance Zaferes and Tapia try to push the swim to gain time over her.
Following a 12th place in Cagliari, Zaferes looks like she is getting back to her best and should be in the mix for a medal this weekend.
Amber Schlebusch beat Zaferes earlier in the year on her way to a win at the Americas Cup in Sarasota. Zaferes has improved considerably since so their match-up will be a good marker to see where both are at.
When it comes to form, it is impossible to look past Maria Carolina Velasquez Soto. The Colombian athlete is on a four race winning streak since taking bronze in Viña del Mar. While she has shown herself to be strong runner, her cycling has probably been the most impressive facet of her racing this year.
Given she has such a hot hand, a medal seems highly likely.
Likewise, Anqi Huang won the Asia Cup races in Dexing and Taizhou. The big question mark over Huang, though, will be how she gets on in her first world level race. Indeed she has not raced internationally outside of Asia before so the elements of travel and inexperience could come into play.
Whereas Velasquez has spent her season racing in the region and so will be accustomed to the conditions, Huang has the hallmarks of an athlete that will probably do well although it would be fair if she needed a race to adapt.
Finally Djenyfer Arnold will also be a threat as she seeks to push herself into the top-30 of the Olympic rankings.
The outcome will ultimately come down to the nature of the race. If Zaferes and Tapia can find partners in the swim and on the bike, they will be able to shut down the likes of Alvarez and Jorgensen. Ivana Kuriackova has raced a lot this year and has a handful of wins to her name; she is an obvious candidate to help in the water. In addition Yifan Yang is a great swimmer and could potentially lead into T1.
The potential therefore exists to set up a breakaway.
If a breakaway fails to stick, that will open the door for speedsters like Marta Pintanel Raymundo.
With so many athletes capable of doing something special, though, it could be a day to remember for the Mexican team.
TriStats Predictions
- Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal
- Katie Zaferes
- Maria Carolina Velasquez Soto
- Anahi Alvarez Corral
- Gina Sereno
