Earlier this week, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) confirmed that Russia will be allowed to race under neutral colours at the 2024 Paris Olympic Games. Strict eligibility conditions will be in place. For example, any athlete that has actively supported the war in Ukraine will not be allowed the compete.
In the wider picture, though, Russian and Belarusian athletes will be at the Games next summer. The question to be asked here is what this means for triathlon.
In April of this year, World Triathlon lifted its ban on Russian and Belarusian athletes. This came after the recommendation of the IOC, which itself laid the groundwork for the participation of said athletes at the Olympics.
Ostensibly, then, there are few barriers holding Russian or Belarusian athletes back from competing in the triathlon events in Paris. In reality, though, the situation is rather rocky.
Based purely on the World Triathlon qualification criteria, it is possible for Russian athletes to still qualify for Paris.
The first port of call would be the Mixed Team Relay. If Russia are allowed to race at the Mixed Team Relay Qualification Event in Huatulco in May, they could conceivably qualify a relay for the Games with a successful race. That would earn two male and two female slots in Paris.
However, one key condition for the neutral Russian and Belarusian athletes in Paris is that “teams of athletes with a Russian or Belarusian passport will not be considered”. A reading of this rule would preclude any Russian or Belarusian Mixed Team Relay given the team component.
Even if a team was permitted, it would be a challenge to come out on top at the relay qualification event. One issue would be the doping ban of Valentina Riasova. After storming performances in the French Grand Prix she would have been an integral part of any Russian tea. However, she is now serving a doping ban.
Other Russian athletes that have been banned include Igor Polyanskiy and Alexander Bryukhankov.
The next step in Olympic qualification is of individuals earning their slot through the Olympic rankings. Given that no Russian or Belarusian athletes have scored points in the Olympic qualification window, it is unlikely that any will make it through this channel.
At the same time, on paper an athlete could race at eight World Cup or WTCS races before the end of May and propel themselves into contention. It is mathematically possible, albeit in a highly improbable way.
Earning a New Flag place will also be difficult. As things stand the European New Flag slots are due to be claimed by Felix Duchampt and Ivana Kuriackova for Romania and Slovakia, respectively. Duchampt has 1681 points in the world rankings and Kuriackova has 1793 points.
Meanwhile, the top Russian man is Denis Kolobrodov. He has 65 points from an Asia Cup in 2021 and has not raced internationally since. His world ranking is thus 728th, which is some way from being inside the top-180 of the world rankings, as per New Flag rules.
The top Russian woman is Yuliya Golofeeva with 71 points (ranked 517th).
In addition, like New Flag places, any athlete hoping to receive a Universality place (upon invitation from the Tripartite Commission) will also need to be inside the top-180 of the world rankings. Making up the ground is not an impossible task but it will be a tall order.
Aside from the difficulty in gaining the necessary ranking to earn New Flag or Universality slots, there is a practical consideration to note. If World Triathlon was to offer a Universality place to a Russian or Belarusian athlete, they would face uproar from other federations, particularly among those in Europe and America.
Moreover, Russian triathletes were banned for doping offences at the previous Olympic Games. It would be incongruous to say the least for World Triathlon to now welcome the country back with open arms. Instead, a distant, awkward handshake may suffice.
Rather than face that uncomfortable situation, there are more diplomatic choices World Triathlon can make. With that in mind, it is highly unlikely that any neutral Russian or Belarusian athletes will be invited to participate in the triathlon events in Paris.
Although Russia has technically been allowed into the Olympic Games, as things stand precious few Russian athletes will realistically qualify. Triathlon is no different. With stringent qualification criteria to surmount and diplomatic factors to take into account, any neutral athlete will have plenty of obstacles to overcome in the next half year.
Thus, at this point, it is unlikely any Russian athletes will be racing in Paris.
