The men’s WTCS finds itself at a crunch point.
Notwithstanding the Paris Olympic Test Event that has been shoehorned in as an extra scoring race, WTCS Cagliari will be the last Olympic distance race of the Series until the Final in Pontevedra. At 1000 points, it is a prime opportunity to make a move in the overall Series.
Going into Cagliari, the two favourites will inevitably be the winners of the opening rounds in Abu Dhabi and Yokohama, Alex Yee and Hayden Wilde.
At Yokohama, Hayden Wilde won an Olympic distance race for the first time in his career. He enjoyed one of his best ever swims, commanded the front pack on the bike and capped his day with a brilliant run. Across his display, it was hard to find any real faults. With the Olympic distance win ticked off, now he can turn to the other minor blemish on his record: a long-awaited win over Alex Yee.
To date, Wilde has not beaten Yee head-to-head on the big stage.
With that in mind, it is hard to forget how good Yee looked at WTCS Abu Dhabi. Recency bias would dictate that Wilde is going to win this weekend. However, Yee was spectacular at the season opener.
Even with Wilde’s improved swim in Yokohama, Yee out-swam him in Abu Dhabi and could find himself in a similar position arriving into T1.
Typically Yee has had most joy over the Olympic distance as it gives him the most space to utilise his advantage on the run. As much as Wilde has closed that advantage, Yee is probably still the better runner over 10km (over 5km that is a much tighter call).
At some point, Wilde is going to beat Yee. It is coming. The bigger questions realistically are where and when it will happen.
Yet Yee is still up there. And the results of his fellow Loughborough training partners (such as Sophie Coldwell, Connor Bentley and Ben Dijkstra) have been impressive. It would be weird if Yee was not similarly on top of his game.
The race, though, will not simply be a two-horse event.
After a disappointing end to his day in Yokohama, Leo Bergere has to rally. It would be unwise to write him off and some kind of response can be expected in Cagliari. However Coninx is the form Frenchman. After finishing 5th in Abu Dhabi and then 4th in Yokohama, he is building towards the podium.
Both Bergere and Coninx enjoyed sterling races across the board in Yokohama. Bergere was the only athlete able to live with Wilde on the run until cramps hit. Similarly, Coninx showed his abilities over all three disciplines; maybe with a more aggressive opening lap on the run he could have kept Wilde closer.
In addition to Yee, the rest of last year’s top-5 return.
Manoel Messias has another WTCS medal to his name following Abu Dhabi. That being said he did get away with a sub-optimal swim in Abu Dhabi which he won’t over the Olympic distance.
Whereas Messias has already fought for WTCS medals this year, Lasse Lührs has had injury so it is hard to say how he will fare. He now has a race under his belt following a hit out at the Bundesliga in Kraichgau. Whether that will prove sufficient preparation for the WTCS remains to be seen.
David Castro Fajardo has also blown a little hot and cold. In part this is due to the bad luck he has experienced (such as the mechanical that thwarted him at the New Plymouth World Cup). If he is on, he will be with the leaders in Cagliari.
Then there is Jonathan Brownlee. The former world champion has not really matched his classy showing at Cagliari since, with sickness an issue earlier in the year. He clearly likes Sardinia, though, as he also won the Arzachena World Cup on the island last season.
With two medals from two races, it is impossible to ignore the Series leader, Vasco Vilaca.
Maybe the most impressive aspect of his performance in Yokohama was that he suffered a cramp in T2 and essentially had to skip out of transition. That he was able to come back to medal speaks to his mental strength. At the top level everyone is fast (some like Yee and Wilde are especially fast) but one of the big separators can often be mental fortitude.
Vilaca appears to have that in his locker.
Another medal would guarantee his Series lead for another round. If he can beat at least one of Yee and Wilde then even more people will jump onto the bandwagon for his world title hopes.
Last year the race at Cagliari, which was the first time the event was part of the Series, did not break up much on the swim. Aside from Jumpei Furuya’s and Brownlee’s tactical darts ahead on the bike, there was not a major breakaway either.
The run therefore proved key.
Adrien Briffod and Jelle Geens were very good on the run in Yokohama. Geens in particular is the kind of athlete that should do well in Cagliari. Moreover for the first lap of the run Morgan Pearson looked fantastic. He is a proven force on the run and showed a glimpse of it. Until it went wrong he had a near-perfect race. If he has corrected whatever befell him in Yokohama, then he will be a podium contender.
Having surpassed Gustav Iden, Vetle Bergsvik Thorn will be chasing another of his compatriots: Kristian Blummenfelt. Blummenfelt showed signs of finding his best form in Yokohama. Thorn, however, will be gunning to be the best Norwegian man.
TriStats Predictions
Yee or Wilde? Yee or Wilde? Yee or Wilde? If someone else could come along and win the race, that would be great. The winner is incredibly difficult to call at this stage but it feels like Yee is the likeliest the cross the line first.
- Alex Yee
- Hayden Wilde
- Vasco Vilaca
- Dorian Coninx
- Leo Bergere
Wilde May have had some good results recently, but he needs to seriously improve his running to beat Yee even on his best day