All eyes will be on Hayden Wilde this weekend as World Cup racing returns for 2023 in New Plymouth, New Zealand.
One year ago, Wilde won the New Plymouth Oceania Cup. That was his first win of a 2022 that catapulted him to a new level in triathlon. Now he returns to face the same New Plymouth course and crowd, with dramatically elevated expectations.
Wilde is the clear favourite going into the men’s race. Will he be able to deliver?
On the one hand, Wilde is the only male WTCS medallist from last year to start. Moreover, his two WTCS wins came over the Sprint distance which he will be contesting in New Plymouth. On paper, he is also probably the best runner in the field.
The key factor to note, though, is that Wilde will have a point to prove after a disappointing day at WTCS Abu Dhabi.
After being forced to change his wheel on the first bike lap, he rode alone and was completely out of contention. He nevertheless produced the fourth fastest run of the day.
Of greater intrigue, his swim was smooth and this has been a focus of his over the winter. A World Cup field is the ideal environment to make a statement in the water.
Given that there realistically is not a better runner or cyclist in the field and the field lacks the kind of swimmer that will be able to put over 30 seconds into Wilde in the water, there are perhaps as many dangers to Wilde as there are natural predators in New Zealand.
So long as Wilde does not get too carried away with experimenting with his swim, in a normal race free of mechanicals he should prevail.
However, that is not to hand him the gold medal already.
The gold and silver medallists from the last World Cup of 2022 – David Castro Fajardo and Diego Moya – will be racing. On his day, Moya has a brash racing style that can enliven practically any race.
Of any athlete, he is the likeliest to take the fight to Wilde. As much as Wilde has worked on his swim, it is still an area in which Moya can probably strike first in a race.
Meanwhile, if Moya sucks Wilde into going punch for punch round New Plymouth, Castro will simply float behind them, biding his time like a shark. If Wilde and Moya get carried away, he will punish them.
Furthermore Castro comes into the race with one win already under his belt in 2023. That came at the Oceania Cup in Taupo where he was a cut above from many of the New Zealand and Australian athletes pencilled to race in New Plymouth. Having spent much of his (European) winter in New Zealand, Castro will be as ready as it comes.
A big New Zealander cohort will accompany Wilde but the real challengers look like they will come from his Antipodean neighbours.
Jacob Birtwhistle won the Oceania Sprint Championships in Devonport. Like Wilde, he had a day to forget at WTCS Abu Dhabi. However, he is building into his season nicely and is showing signs of unlocking some of his vaunted running speed.
At the same time, Callum Mcclusky is a rising youngster from Australia that has really put himself on the map in 2023. A win at the Oceania Cup in Wanaka preceded a silver in Devonport. He is a little less polished than some of the athletes that he will be going up against. However expect him to be lively throughout the race and he will also be a danger on the run.
New Plymouth will host a trio of Americas Cup race winners from this year. Kauê Willy, Liam Donnelly and Martin Sobey each arrive in form following their recent wins. None yet have hit the kind of levels of Wilde and Castro, but this year could be the season that changes. If nothing else, recent form cannot be dismissed.
On the note of recent form, Tyler Mislawchuk looked great at WTCS Abu Dhabi for large swathes of the race. A penalty ultimately put paid to his hopes but for a lot of the run he was up with the medallists and looked like (penalty aside) he would have been able to nab a podium.
Mislawchuk has been dogged by bad luck at times. It would therefore be high time for a turn in his fortunes and a return to the top of the podium.
If he can bring some of the form he showed in Abu Dhabi, he cannot be discounted.
With regards to dark horses, keep an eye out too for Ricardo Batista. The Portuguese athlete is young and only won his first World Cup medal in October. With a very well-rounded skillset, he could spark a surprise.
Wilde, then, is the front-runner. Yet with a pack of in-form athletes starting alongside him he will have to be on the ball in New Plymouth. Just because he can win this race, it does not mean he will.
Over the past year, though, he has shown the maturity to execute his race plan in such situations. As a result, he is a safe pick for the win this weekend.
TriStats Predictions
- Hayden Wilde
- Tyler Mislawchuk
- David Castro Fajardo
- Jacob Birtwhistle
- Callum Mcclusky
