With the heats concluded at WTCS Hamburg, attention will now turn to the repechages and then the finals. Ahead of the next stages, it is time to cast an eye over the qualifiers and assess which athletes looked good and which ones flew under the radar.
In some cases, cases can be made for athletes looking in a position to win the entire event. In other cases, there are some athletes that looked like they simply used the heats as a warm up and will show their true hand in the final.
You can read the men’s heat summary here and the women’s heat summary here.
Looking dangerous
Cassandre Beaugrand
Cassandre Beaugrand is a sensible place to start. The winner of WTCS Hamburg in 2018 was impressive throughout the second women’s qualifier.
She led the way in the water, clocking the second fastest split of the morning across the two women’s heats. From there, she sat in total control during both the bike and the run.
On the evidence of the heats, no one will be able to out-swim Beaugrand. Indeed, if anyone tries to push the pace in the water, that will likely only help put time into her rivals. Technically, she looked secure on the bike and then her running appeared effortless. For her rivals watching on, her win of the second heat came far too easily for comfort.
Beth Potter
Beth Potter was in a similar position to Beaugrand insofar that she cruised to victory in the first qualifier. Even though Vittoria Lopes and Zsanett Bragmayer escaped in a breakaway, Potter was nevertheless able to ease her way back to the front.
Although there may be a slight concern that Potter lost ground, she swam only 7 seconds slower than Beaugrand. As such, she can be confident of being with her rival throughout the race in the final.
Neither Beaugrand nor Potter gave any real insight into their running speed in the heat and their match-up in the final should be a clash to savour.
The German women
The German team put five women directly into the final in a very promising display. For the mathematicians out there, that is 25% of the automatic qualifiers. Anabel Knoll looked the best she has all season on her way to 7th in qualifier 1. Lisa Tertsch finished 4th in the same heat and shadowed Potter for the entire race. As the bronze medallist from Hamburg last year, Tertsch will be one to watch in the final.
In the second qualifier, Laura Lindemann, Annika Koch and Marlene Gomez-Göggel all looked comfortable as they made the final. Koch possibly looked the best of the bunch, although given Lindemann’s record in Hamburg (with four medals, including the win in 2021) she will be hard to bet against.
All in all, Germany can be very confident of putting on a show in front of a rapturous home crowd.
Speedy swimmers
Zsanett Bragmayer very nearly got the better of Potter in qualifier 1. She almost latched onto Lopes’ feet in the swim; more importantly, she matched Beaugrand’s split from the second heat. To follow it up, Bragmayer was impressive on the bike as she rode up to Lopes and then defended a lead against a large chase pack.
In the final, then, it is possible to envisage a Bragmayer-Beaugrand combination putting the field on the back foot.
It was a similar story with Kirsten Kasper. Although Katie Zaferes and Taylor Spivey made the final, Kasper was the pick of the American women.
She matched Beaugrand in the water and then produced an assured performance to finish the job.
A breakaway in the water of Kasper, Beaugrand and Bragmayer could easily escape the rest of the field in the final. Given how each raced in the heats, if that trio escapes, they could lock out the podium.
Matthew Hauser
Matthew Hauser was the top swimmer in the second qualifier and was assertive throughout the race. He jumped away from the field on the bike with Tim Hellwig and then used the first few hundred metres of the run to show his running advantage as he instantly gained a gap.
During both the bike and the run, he then powered down having given a brief glimpse of what he could do. Hauser arrived in Hamburg in form and he looked in fantastic condition in the heats.
He will be tough to beat in the final.
Alex Yee
Alex Yee was about as expected in the first men’s qualifier.
He emerged 13 seconds behind Brock Hoel in the water (and 12 seconds off what Hauser managed). While that is not ideal, it is nonetheless roughly what one would anticipate from Yee. Thereafter, he rode well to help bring Hoel back and looked ominously smooth on the run.
On the run itself, no one in either heat gave a lot away. The likes of Manoel Messias, Vasco Vilaca and Csongor Lehmann all looked comfortable. In the absence of any hint that someone can out-ran Yee, though, the ball remains in his court.
With Yee, then, it was not so much the case of him showing what will make him a threat in the final. Instead, he simply confirmed that everything is running as expected. That means he will probably lose some time in the water, but likely not a race-threatening amount, and then surge back before unleashing his devastating run.
Still warming up
Hayden Wilde
What is there to say about Hayden Wilde? He was completely untroubled on the run and barely seemed to get his heart rate up.
The cause for concern arises from the fact that he lost 22 seconds in the swim to Hauser. He made it up on the bike but that was mainly because Hauser chilled out on Hellwig’s wheel. It won’t be so easy to close such a gap in the final.
Last year’s winner in Hamburg seemed to cruise through much of the run and on that basis there is a chance Wilde took it easy during the swim as well. With that in mind, there is a strong likelihood that he will be quicker in the final.
Ultimately, Wilde got the job done without trying very hard and (smartly) kept his cards close to his chest. In doing so he offered nothing tangible to suggest he can trump the likes of Hauser and Yee while showing a hint of vulnerability in the swim.
Kristian Blummenfelt
Kristian Blummenfelt is a tricky one to place. As per usual, he grimaced his way around the course, leaving no real indication of how he truly felt.
Like Wilde, he had a middling swim but recovered on the bike. Unlike Wilde, though, the swim is not the cause for concern.
A case could also be made that, on the run, Blummenfelt overplayed his hand. His little surge to win his heat will not cost him anything physically; he is far too strong for that. Rather, it was a sign he has revealed what he has in the tank a little too early.
Since his return to short distance racing, one of the key qualities Blummenfelt has missed has been the sudden acceleration to get a gap over his rivals. Once he gets up to speed he is rapid, but he takes noticeably longer than his opponents to reach his higher gears. That style of racing suits a 10km. Over 1.75km, it may not play in his favour.
From the Bergen World Cup last August where Dorian Coninx accelerated away from him to WTCS Montreal where Hauser and a few others dropped him with a kick, the burst of speed has been Blummenfelt’s primary weakness on the run.
Watching Blummenfelt in the last 500m of his qualifier was again to watch him crank up his tempo and make his way to the front. He accelerates like a train building up a head of steam. By contrast, the likes of Yee, Wilde and Hauser (plus many more) can turn on their speed at the flick of a switch.
It was only a heat, so he won’t have gone full bore. Yet there is little indicator he has a more sudden acceleration in him.
In surging to take the win, then, Blummenfelt showed that his acceleration might not be as sharp as that of his rivals.
Solveig Løvseth
On the one hand, the European Games champion lost too much time in the swim. Vittoria Lopes out-swam her by 30 seconds and Beth Potter put 20 seconds into her.
On the other hand, Løvseth was the best cyclist of the qualifiers and showed that can she shut down almost any gap.
In the end, she made it through to the final as the 9th place finisher in qualifier 1. She did not have to expend too much energy on the run so there is only so much that can be read into that.
Therefore, Løvseth is a paradox. She looked brilliant on the bike and will likely shape the final in the second discipline. For that reason, she should be in the “looking dangerous” group. Yet her swim was not where it ideally would have been. With her swim still warming up, then, she has a clear obstacle to navigate.
Vasco Vilaca
Yes, yes, yes: there is an obvious contradiction at the surface here.
Whereas both women’s heat winners were put in the “looking dangerous” category and earmarked as favourites for the win, both men’s winners have been classified as “warming up”.
The rationale for Blummenfelt has been made above, but why is Vilaca here?
In many ways, he had a similar race to Wilde. It was an efficient and quiet outing and Vilaca got the job done with minimal fuss. He did nothing to give any reason to be concerned.
As a result, the reason for Vilaca’s inclusion as “warming up” is due to the fact that he did not show anything to suggest he can win the race. He will be in the mix for sure and he has proven this year he has the capability to medal. However, he kept his form under wraps.
He swam with Yee, rode with Yee and then ran with Yee. In the final, such an approach will play into the Brit’s hands. In the heats, we saw how Yee can win the event (by running to victory). We saw how Hauser can take the gold too. The same applies for Beaugrand and Potter.
Vilaca is talented enough to be held to the same standard. After all, he is the Series leader. In the heats, it was not obvious how he can win the final. With his ability, he will have something up his sleeve and for that reason he slots into the “warming up” column.
Living on the edge
Summer Rappaport
Rappaport missed out in the second women’s qualifier by 3 seconds following trouble with a shoe in T2.
After her brilliant bronze medal at WTCS Montreal, it was an unfortunate mistake to make. Realistically, she will still make the final from the repechage. However, she will have an extra race in her legs which could compromise her chances of a podium. She is by no means out of the equation, but she will be taking the craggier path to a potential medal.
Alissa Konig
A moment of carelessness saw Konig finish 11th in the first women’s qualifier. After losing time in the water, Konig looked excellent on the bike and during the run. She is clearly in form and could have expected more for her efforts.
Like Rappaport, she should still make the final but the extra round could prove costly.
Lasse and Lasse
Having been comfortably placed in qualifier 1, Lasse Lührs tripped and fell at the end of the run while his compatriot, Lasse Nygaard Priester, stumbled around him. As a result, both missed the final, with Priester falling only 1 second short.
The two Germans look more than capable of making the final and should comfortably do so in the repechage. However, this time, both will need to stay on two feet during the run.
The men of qualifier 2
Tactics proved to be the order of the day as almost a third of the second men’s qualifier coasted to the line. To illustrate this point, let’s compare the two qualifiers.
Tjebbe Kaindl finished 30th in the first qualifier in a time of 21:39. His time would have put him in 24th place in the second heat.
An important caveat is that, given the layout of the competition, it made a lot of sense to save energy once a place in the top-10 was no longer likely.
Some men, like Genis Grau, Connor Bentley, Antonio Bravo Neto and Janus Staufenberg, took that a step further by running 2 minutes slower than the heat leaders. That quartet are too talented to be out-run by 2 minutes over 10km. For it to happen over 1.75km offers a clear indication that energy conservation was at the forefront of their mind.
The first qualifier was not devoid of such tactics; Kaindl himself ran on the leisurely side. However, only five men failed to run within a minute of the fastest split (4:59 by Jacob Birtwhistle). In the second heat Max Studer also lead the run with a 4:59 and fourteen men failed to run within a minute of it.
Looking to the final, several men will hope that their tactics will pay off.
