The World Triathlon Championships Final in Abu Dhabi marks the culmination of the 2022 WTCS season and there is plenty still to settle in both the men’s and women’s fields.
The men’s field became a two horse race between Alex Yee and Hayden Wilde long ago.
After wins at WTCS Leeds and WTCS Hamburg, Wilde currently sits on 3850 points. He did not race at either WTCS Cagliari or WTCS Bermuda and instead has spent the past few weeks with his eyes on the WTCS Final. With a training camp in Abu Dhabi to prepare for the Final, Wilde seems primed to unleash a big performance.
Yee has moved into second place in the Series after taking 5th in Bermuda. With 3732 points to his name, he finds himself 118 points behind Wilde.
The issue Yee now faces is that the Final rewards the race winner with 1250 points. With each drop in position, the points awarded drop by 7.5%. Second place in Abu Dhabi will earn 1156 points. That means that even if Yee wins the race, Wilde can afford to come second and still become world champion.
For Yee to win the Series, he has to finish two places ahead of Wilde. Should Yee finish outside the top-6 in Abu Dhabi, then he will have to be at least three places ahead of Wilde. Given the form both men have shown this year, that seems a little unlikely. As it stands, though, Yee’s fate is out of his hands, leaving Wilde in the box seat.
Meanwhile, the race for third in the Series has quietly become one of the most intense battles in the field. Leo Bergere is the favourite after a brilliant season in which he has taken four WTCS medals and the European Championships title.
He sits on 3493 points and another podium finish will essentially guarantee his spot in the overall Series. At the same time, it should be noted that Bergere is only 239 points behind Yee. It would only take one mishap for Yee to open the door to Bergere taking 2nd in the Series. For example, if Bergere comes 3rd in Abu Dhabi and Yee comes 7th, Bergere would overtake Yee.
That being said, Bergere will also have to look over his shoulder. Jelle Geens is only 179 points behind Bergere, on 3314 points. After a 4th place in Bermuda and a win at WTCS Abu Dhabi last year, Geens can enter the race with confidence. If he can finish 3rd in Abu Dhabi, he needs Bergere to finish no better than 6th.
The battle for 3rd is not confined to Bergere and Geens. Vincent Luis sits fifth in the Series after a win in Bermuda. He is 395 points behind Bergere on 3098 points and will likely have to win in Abu Dhabi to steal third. Then again, he came 2nd in Abu Dhabi last year and after Bermuda anything is possible.
For Vincent Luis to take 3rd overall, he would have to win in Abu Dhabi, Bergere would have to finish 6th or worse and Geens would have to finish 4th or worse. That is a feasible scenario.
Sitting close behind Luis in 6th place is Antonio Serrat Seoane with 2925 points. Although he took 2nd in Bermuda, the gap to Bergere is likely a step too far, even if it is not impossible. Serrat Seoane would have to overturn a deficit of 568 points. Even if he repeated a 2nd place finish in Abu Dhabi, he would need Bergere to finish out of the top-10, Geens to finish 8th and Luis to finish 5th. It could happen, although it will require a lot of cards to fall in Serrat Seoane’s favour.
Further down the rankings, Lasse Lührs, Pierre Le Corre and Vasco Vilaca appear to have 7th, 8th and 9th sewn up. Each can overtake one another with Lührs sitting on 2769 points, Le Corre on 2726 and Vilaca on 2669. For Vilaca to take 7th overall, he will realistically need to finish two places ahead of Lührs and Le Corre in Abu Dhabi. If Le Corre beats Luhrs in Abu Dhabi, he will overtake him in the standings.
Looking higher up the standings, if any of that trio achieve a podium performance in Abu Dhabi, they could potentially steal 5th place from Luis. Lührs has the best form of the three of them, with 7th in Bermuda, 4th in Cagliari and 3rd at WTCS Leeds. A fast run course in Abu Dhabi should suit him, so it is not out of the question. He would have to beat Luis by at least 329 points which means if Lührs finishes 4th in Abu Dhabi, Luis would have to finish 10th or worse.
Anywhere in the top-10 in the final Series standings would represent a breakthrough year for Lührs.
10th place in the Series is currently occupied by Matthew Hauser on 2317 points. He has been a little inconsistent in 2022. A world class display in Hamburg came after a weaker performance in Leeds. That, in turn, came after a good showing in Yokohama.
Hauser likely won’t be able to close the gap to 9th overall or higher and will be looking to hold his spot.
He has a buffer of 218 points over Jawad Abdelmoula and a 288 lead over Bence Bicsak. Realistically, he should be able to hold that gap given his performances, but if inconsistency strikes he could slip out of the top-10.
You can explore the rest of the men’s WTCS rankings here. Let us know in the comments below where you think everyone will finish.
