The women’s World Triathlon Championships Series is shaping up to be one of the most closely contested in recent history.
Last year, we witnessed a monumental battle between Flora Duffy and Georgia Taylor-Brown that came down to the final laps of the run in the last race of the season. This year, though, the race to the world title could be even tighter still.
As with the men, there are four primary candidates that are well-positioned to win the Series. At this stage, the only thing we know for sure is that it could take multiple race wins to even be in the conversation by the time the WTCS Final in Pontevedra arrives.
Flora Duffy
To say we are starting with the defending champion feels understated. We are actually starting with the athlete that many consider the Greatest Of All Time, the winner of the last two world titles and the most recent Olympic champion.
Since winning her first world title in 2016, Flora Duffy has been nothing short of indomitable.
Back in 2016, she was widely considered one of the best cyclists in the field. In the intervening years, she has also developed into one the best swimmers and one of the best runners. At her home race in Bermuda last November, she was narrowly denied the fastest split in each discipline by Maya Kingma on the bike.
Towards the end of 2022, Duffy’s form was simply superlative. However, the other shoe has to drop at some point. Right?
Surely, there has to come a point where she slips just a little. The problem is, that small slip seemed to happen at the start of 2022 when a combination of doubt over continuing and then a bout of COVID hampered her in Yokohama and Leeds. That little wobble enabled Georgia Taylor-Brown to steal a march on Duffy. As such, we have seen what could happen if Duffy falters.
Yet Duffy still rallied to win the world title.
She is so good that she does not have to be perfect throughout the season to win. As much as we can anticipate her dropping a gear at some point, she may still get away with it.
Duffy’s level has been so high that going into this season a (potentially apocryphal) quote from the English Civil War springs to mind.
In the Civil War, it was said that Parliament could win 99 times out of 100 and the King would still be King. If the King won once, though, that would be the end for the Roundheads (Parliament).
In essence, Duffy can enter this season in the same vein. She does not have to win every race whereas her rivals will have to be perfect over the season to beat her.
Georgia Taylor-Brown
The closest rival to Duffy was as close as it gets to flawless in 2022.
Georgia Taylor-Brown won six medals in six WTCS races with a “worst” finish of 2nd. In any other year, she had a season worthy of the Hall of Fame. It was simply her misfortune to contend with Duffy.
However, a year older and a year stronger, Taylor-Brown will return. If anyone could have a perfect season, it will be her.
Taylor-Brown was actually the world champion in 2020 after winning the single day world championship in Hamburg. Since then, she has beaten all of her rivals in a head-to-head race at least twice.
Notably, Taylor-Brown has also won over all three distances. She is therefore coming into 2023 on the verge of discovering her prime.
There is no reason on Taylor-Brown’s side to doubt her. Rather, as with last season, she is simply up against a formidable opponent. This year could well be the story of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object. Only one, though, can win.
Taylor Knibb
Taylor Knibb’s entire story arc has been building towards the world title. From the back-to-back World Junior titles, to the World U23 title, to becoming the youngest WTCS medallist and to her first WTCS gold in 2021, she has been building towards the big one.
This could be her moment.
In 2021, Knibb won WTCS Yokohama on the back of a brilliant bike split. She then crushed the field at the WTCS Final in Edmonton with a solo effort on the bike.
Furthermore, she was brilliant on the bike across Cagliari, Bermuda and Abu Dhabi at the end of last season.
Such is her ability on the bike, she has cultivated an aura. Half of the field know that she will transform the race on the bike. At this point it might even be fair to say that the number of women that can ride with Knibb can be counted using fingers.
With her focus dialled in as the Olympic Games approach, there is every likelihood we see the best iteration of Knibb yet.
One relative weakness she currently faces is the Sprint distance. Knibb has medalled over the distance before however she has not won over it. With a panoply of fast runners in the field, she might not quite have the top end speed to take the win over the shorter race.
This is somewhat comparable to Kristian Blummenfelt in the men’s field who is similarly more suited to the Olympic distance.
That being said, Knibb is young and can improve over the Sprint. To beat Duffy and Taylor-Brown, she will likely have to find that extra gear on the run this year. If her fairytale career continues on its current trajectory, she will be highly likely to take that final step up.
Cassandre Beaugrand
We then come to perhaps the most unpredictable among the favourites. If Knibb is stronger over the Olympic distance then Cassandre Beaugrand is stronger over the Sprint distance.
Indeed, she might just be the best Sprint distance triathlete in the world.
Beaugrand is one of the best swimmers in the field and last year became the second fastest woman ever in the run of an Olympic distance race.
Her win at WTCS Leeds summed up her abilities as she produced the fastest swim and the fastest run (despite a penalty) on the way to winning in style.
On days like Leeds, it can seem completely out of the question that another athlete could defeat her.
Furthermore, at the age of 21, she decimated the field at WTCS Hamburg to become one of the youngest winners in the sport and she has improved since then.
However, the question mark with Beaugrand is that she has not yet medalled over the Olympic distance. Sometimes her bike can hold her back in that respect and it is telling that her weakness coincides directly with one of Duffy’s and Knibb’s core strengths.
On the other hand, Beaugrand could equally win every short race this year. It really depends upon which Beaugrand shows up on the day.
If her Olympic distance inconsistency bites her she likely won’t win the Series. And yet, if she shows up in Pontevedra with wins (or medals) from Abu Dhabi, Montreal, Hamburg and Sunderland, she could be ideally placed to win the world title.
