After three races, three British triathletes have stepped onto the top of the podium to receive a WTCS gold medal this season. As such, it would make designate the British as favourites for the win when all three line up on the start line in Montreal.
The most recent race win came from Georgia Taylor-Brown. After a slightly slower start to the season by her stratospheric standards, Taylor-Brown enjoyed a return to form to win WTCS Cagliari in style. Whereas she missed the breakaway in Abu Dhabi and Yokohama, she did not repeat the mistake for a third time. Instead, she was in near-total command of the race from the moment she arrived in T1.
A winner in Montreal last season, Taylor-Brown’s return to form on paper makes her the favourite. However, she will have to find a way past Sophie Coldwell.
Coldwell is in the midst of a career-season in which she has attained new heights. A rip-roaring display in Abu Dhabi saw her take the silver medal. In Yokohama, she followed that up with her maiden WTCS victory.
Although this is a question of margins, she might just be the form athlete of the Series. Indeed, if there is a breakaway, Coldwell is the likeliest of the three British race winners to make it after Taylor-Brown missed out twice and Beth Potter missed it in Cagliari.
On the flip side, as well as Coldwell has been running this year, her compatriots might have that extra gear at the finish.
Such was the case in Abu Dhabi when Beth Potter earned her first ever WTCS win. With Montreal taking place over the Sprint distance, Potter should be in the box seat as the only Sprint winner this year.
Her swim has grown into a real point of strength over the past couple of years. Notwithstanding the fact that she missed the breakaway in Cagliari, her swim in Abu Dhabi showcased that she has become a complete triathlete. In a straight head-to-head over 5km, she might be the slight favourite to beat Coldwell and Taylor-Brown.
One possibility is that all three make the breakaway and end up together on the run with 500m to go. In that situation, it is almost impossible to pick a winner. Potter has the running pedigree, Taylor-Brown has the experience of multiple WTCS wins, and Coldwell has the momentum.
Montreal, though, should not simply be a battle of the Brits.
Taylor Spivey, the current runaway Series leader, is in great form. She beat Taylor-Brown in Abu Dhabi and Yokohama and out-performed Potter in Cagliari. In doing so she has claimed two medals and a 4th place this season. Of greater pertinence is the fact that she is the only athlete to have made all three breakaways.
Whatever happens, Spivey should in contention.
However, she has not beaten Coldwell this year. Regardless of how the race pans out, Coldwell’s form is such that she could probably beat Spivey in most outcomes. Moreover if there is a breakaway, as has become the norm, it is hard to see anyone beating Coldwell.
Of course, jet-lag could stop Coldwell, but when such factors are introduced as reasons to doubt an athlete then we really are clutching at straws. After all, it did not slow her down in Yokohama.
Spivey’s American teammate, Taylor Knibb, could also figure prominently. A bronze medallist in Yokohama (ahead of Spivey no less), Knibb could ride away from the field (or a breakaway) and upset the apple cart. A solo attack might be her best bet of victory as surgery on her foot earlier in the year may have compromised her running for the time being.
A third American, Summer Rappaport, could also feature after a 4th place in Abu Dhabi. Like Knibb, though, it is hard to see her being able to out-run her rivals and land on the podium based on recent form.
When it comes to dark horses, Jeanne Lehair has the ability to land on the podium. The European champion just won a silver medal at the French Grand Prix in Bordeaux and is in the form of her life. With a week of rest ahead of Montreal, she should be even sharper still.
More than anyone, Lehair has the running speed to take on the likes of Potter and Taylor-Brown.
Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal could also be in the mix. Her silver medal in Yokohama confirmed her arrival as a contender on the biggest stage. At the weekend, she finished 6th in Huatulco but in slightly more forgiving conditions in Canada she should be a little quicker. In addition, just as Lehair will be more rested into Montreal, Tapia can expect another week of recovery to sharpen herself for a tilt at the podium.
Finally, Nicole Van Der Kaay enjoyed a superlative Oceanian summer and capped a prolific run of wins with victories at the New Plymouth World Cup and the Oceania Championships. Taking on the Brits and Americans will be a step up from her success thus far in 2023. As a WTCS medallist from 2021 and a fantastic runner, Van Der Kaay is more than capable of making said step.
TriStats Predictions
- Sophie Coldwell
- Beth Potter
- Georgia Taylor-Brown
- Taylor Spivey
- Jeanne Lehair
