After two races of the 2023 World Triathlon Championship Series, it is fair to say that Gustav Iden’s season is not quite going according to plan.
At both WTCS Abu Dhabi and WTCS Yokohama he has faced difficulties and now finds himself slipping behind in his pursuit of qualification for the Paris Olympic Games. Iden is a proven quantity in triathlon; he is the reigning world champion in Ironman after all. However, with challenges arising both within his own racing as well as externally, he may need to take some tricky decisions about the route he now takes to chase points for Paris.
When it comes to the race itself, Iden has been hamstrung by his swim.
At WTCS Yokohama, he ended up in 39th place after recording the second slowest swim of the day. Similarly at WTCS Abu Dhabi he finished 52nd after only managing the fifth slowest swim. The most obvious limitation to his performance in the WTCS right now is therefore his first discipline.
The problem is, that might not be something that can be easily fixed in the short term. With only one year left to accrue points towards Olympic qualification, time is of the essence.
Then there is the external challenge posed to Iden: the rise of Vetle Bergsvik Thorn. After a 12th place in Yokohama, Thorn is an athlete that is improving at a rapid rate.
Prior to the weekend, Thorn was already ahead of Iden in the Olympic qualification rankings (Thorn was 51st while Iden was 55th). When the updated rankings are published following Yokohama his lead will have been extended.
At this rate, then, Iden will need to earn a third Norwegian slot for the Paris Olympics. Although he is close, his results have not pointed to him being able to do so. Over half of his points come from his 9th at WTCS Bermuda. For the rest of this season, though, there won’t be a tough course akin to that of Bermuda.
More generally, all of Iden’s best finishes in the Series have come in Bermuda (namely his two WTCS medals).
With one WTCS Sprint distance top-10 to his name in his career, it would also be uncharacteristic for him to score big points at Montreal, Hamburg or Sunderland.
He will race at WTCS Cagliari later this month which offers one of three remaining Olympic distance races at the WTCS level (or equivalent). Yet his swim seems like it could still be a limiting factor in two weeks. Moreover his run has also been off the pace of where he would need to be to pile up points.
So, with such challenges, where does Iden go from here?
The first thing to note is that the situation is by no means hopeless. It is simply tricky. Iden can continue as he is and his form could eventually come around. It likely won’t be enough to overtake Thorn or catch Kristian Blummenfelt but he can probably squeak into qualifying for Paris.
There is, however, another way.
From the end of August to mid-November, there will be seven Olympic distance World Cup races. These are the races that Iden should target going forwards. Yes, the WTCS is the highest echelon of the sport and for sponsorship and pride reasons Iden will want to take part in it.
From a pure points perspective, though, he has to forego the WTCS and prioritise the World Cup swing. When it comes to Olympic points, the World Cups are valuable. For context, Hayden Wilde’s win in New Plymouth was worth 375 points. That is almost as much as Iden’s top-10 in Bermuda, which itself is a feat he does not look like repeating at this stage.
He can obviously still race in the WTCS and do the Paris Test Event. However maybe he should take June and July away from the Sprint section of the Series to prepare for a big push through the autumn of World Cups.
Iden’s form at World Cups prior to 2020 also gives cause for hope. He has won such races before. Furthermore his swim should not be as penalised while his cycling strength should be more prominent.
Obviously others will be targeting points but after Cagliari the best thing for Iden might be to sacrifice his summer for a big autumn.
For many, Paris and Pontevedra are the key routes to next year’s Olympics. Yet if Iden can log a few strong finishes in the World Cups, he could go in a different direction and one that could earn him even more points.
