As we recently presented with the women’s field, the character of elite triathlon racing grows and changes over time. The same is true on the men’s side as much as it is on the women’s.
A decade ago, the norm was similar to what we have recently seen in the women’s race. World-class swim-bikers like Alistair Brownlee, Javier Gomez Noya, Richard Varga and Jonathan Brownlee formed small breakaway groups out of T1 and attacked the bike. As Gomez and the Brownlees also possessed world-class runs, there was rarely hope for the rest of the field.
Henri Schoeman joined this group on his way to Olympic bronze and a win in the WTCS Final in Cozumel in 2016. However, in the subsequent years, due to a combination of injuries, shifting focus and age, the grip this group had on the field loosened.
The new normal emerged in the “Mola era”. A combination of the growing cycling strength of the field and a reduced appetite or capacity of small groups to force breakaways meant that any breakaway was often not strong enough to withstand Mola’s run speed. In this new style of racing, Mola won three world titles.
It is tantamount to Gomez’s talent that he was able to flourish in both the breakaway style of racing as well as the running races in the post-2016 era. Other athletes like Richard Murray and Jake Birtwhistle also raced to medals with their superior run speed.
Of course, not all races conformed exactly to this format. There were running races made up of large packs in the Gomez-Brownlee years and some breakaway attacks after 2016. However, on a more general level, the themes existed.
Since 2019 we have seen the emergence of three world class runners: Kristian Blummenfelt, Alex Yee and Hayden Wilde. All three are the most recent Olympic medallists. None are the strongest swimmers in the field and seldom make the front pack. That almost does not matter, though, as they surge their way through the field.
The issue nowadays for the men is how to solve a problem like Yee.
Even if we don’t simply focus on Yee, the same problem exists for the rest of the race. Several runners in the field are so fast that they threaten to monopolise the Series if they come off the bike near the lead.
As a result, some of the men have been forced to develop a new paradigm and this may drive a new way of racing in 2023.
We saw the first hints of this shift at WTCS Leeds 2022. Leo Bergere and Vincent Luis attacked on the bike and, though Wilde ultimately prevailed, the strategy was clear for how to disrupt the status quo.
By the time the latter stages of the 2022 season rolled around, the strategy had been perfected by the French men. Vincent Luis used an expert breakaway to take the win in Bermuda while Leo Bergere did the same to take the most dramatic of world titles in Abu Dhabi.
Meanwhile, when only Jumpei Furuya and Jonathan Brownlee attacked on the bike in Cagliari, Yee was able to leave the field in his dust.
In a sense, then, 2023 may be a case of back to the future for the men’s field. We could see a number of breakaway attempts akin to the 2012 era. The racing, however, won’t be quite so simple as a decade ago.
The return of Olympic and 2021 WTCS champion Kristian Blummenfelt changes things. With Yee, Wilde and Blummenfelt in the chase pack, not to mention Ironman world champion Gustav Iden, the breakaway will have a constant battle to gain any ground.
Ten years ago, the best athletes simply rode away from the field. In 2023, we should see a true clash of contrasting styles.
As a result, we can expect the swims to be highly aggressive next season with athletes determined to push the pace. The key battleground, though, will be the bike.
The crucial attack will likely to come early in the bike. Think Taylor Knibb in Edmonton in 2021. When she attacked on the bike she went early and she went hard. It will be on the first lap of the bike that the breakaway will have to consolidate itself before the chase can organise itself.
Historically, Blummenfelt has been a solid swimmer but the bike is where he can detonate the field. Arguably, Blummenfelt, Iden and Wilde have their strongest discipline on the bike. Whichever of the leaders or the chasers can “win” the bike will go on to having the best shot of winning the race.
Of course, it should also be noted that there will be exceptional runners looking to exploit the power of the likes of Blummenfelt and Wilde on the bike. Brilliant runners like Jelle Geens and Morgan Pearson will always be a threat and there will likely be some races that come down to running races.
What makes 2023 look like it could be different is the presence of athletes with the interest and ability to make breakaways stick. In particular, the French trio of Luis, Bergere and Le Corre could be a thorn in the main pack’s side all season.
One potential spoiler in all of this will be if Hayden Wilde manages to develop his swim as he plans to do so this winter.
There’s no guaranteeing the race evolves like this over the next few years. Maybe athletes don’t push for a breakaway as happened in Bermuda or Abu Dhabi. Maybe Blummenfelt will fancy his chances in beating both Yee and Wilde in a running race. Maybe those three men are so good at running that any attack will be overhauled anyway.
However, the field seemed to wake up towards the end of 2022.
After five years of the runners dominating, the swim-bikers might be about to flex their muscles.
