Gwen Jorgensen will be making her return to international triathlon in three weeks at the Oceania Cup in Taupo, New Zealand. Having stepped away from the sport in 2016, her return is one of the biggest storylines ahead of the new season.
What, then, can be expected in Taupo?
Following her six year absence, the swim may be the biggest challenge. In the interim, Jorgensen ran at an extremely high level in pursuit of qualification for the Tokyo Olympic Games, finishing 9th at US Olympic Trials in the 5000m. Her running will therefore likely be among the best in the field.
By comparison, it would be reasonable to expect her swim to be a little rusty.
Lake Taupo should offer fairly calm waters on that front, although the wind could be a factor.
On the physical side, returning to the water will pose a different question to track racing. While it is one Jorgensen has previously answered on her way to Olympic gold and world titles, it may take a little time to fully re-acquaint herself with racing in the water.
In turn, that feeds into the psychological aspect. The “washing machine” of triathlon starts is well-documented. After a prolonged absence from the sport, the prospect of fighting for position and swimming atop other athletes may be a shock.
As a result, a success will be a safe swim that sees Jorgensen emerge either in the main group or withing striking distance of it.
Generally, the swimming at Continental Cups is not quite as hectic as at a WTCS race. That should put Jorgensen in comparatively safe water.
The bike course around Taupo is also manageable. It will consist of five laps with a few tight corners but no dead-turns. That should make it quite a fast ride.
Taupo is generally on the hillier side, although the athletes will not be summiting the nearby Mount Tauhara. The course, then, will likely pose a good early-season test without sapping too much from the athletes’ legs.
The race finishes with a run of four 1.25km laps, mostly along the lakefront. As with the bike, it should be quite a fast course. There could be some wind from the lake but it likely won’t be overpowering.
All that is to say that the course holds few, if any, pitfalls for Jorgensen.
If she can navigate the swim without difficulty, the bike should be barely an inconvenience. That will lead her into the run which has always been her bread and butter.
There are currently thirty women on the start list and none really boast similar running credentials.
Emma Jeffcoat of Australia will be a threat on the swim and the bike. There could be a situation in which Jeffcoat escapes early, perhaps with a couple of other athletes, and takes control of the race.
Similarly, Nicole Van Der Kaay is a WTCS medallist from Hamburg 2021 and will be a challenger on the run. There are a couple of other athletes in the field with recent WTCS experience, such as Matilda Offord, Ainsley Thorpe and Eva Goodisson which will provide Jorgensen with a good litmus test early in the year.
It might be a reach to suggest Jorgensen will win in her first race back and we do not want to stoke expectations unnecessarily. Judging by the above, a top-10 finish would be a reasonable prediction. Maybe a podium would not be a long shot.
One final thing to note is that Jorgensen will be the oldest athlete in the race by six years. Even though she will be the one making a comeback, she is still by far the most experienced athlete. With all that nous gathered over the years, she will know exactly what she needs to do in Taupo.
