Excitement is rising as the belated WTCS season opener will get underway in Yokohama tomorrow. Over seven months have passed since the last race in the Series while the shortened 2024 season means that every race has acquired a new edge. Throw in the Olympic battles throughout the field and a pair of instant classics could be in store.
Before the racing gets underway, take a look below at some of the main topics to track this weekend.
Who is in shape?
The most basic point with which to start is to ask who is in shape. Some of those starting have already raced this season. Emma Lombardi, for example, won the Melilla European Cup, while plenty of others have graced the World Cup circuit. WTCS racing is different, though.
Even World Cups generally are not the most reliable indicator for WTCS performance given the step up in quality and different styles of racing. As a result, we enter the season opener flying mostly in the dark when it comes to the form and fitness of most of the contenders.
Naturally, all those starting will be “in shape”. The question here rather focuses on which athletes will be at 95% and which will be firing on all cylinders. Those that have already qualified for the Paris Olympics can afford to not be at full capacity just yet and their race fitness may be a month or two away. By contrast, those that still need to qualify will be all out in Yokohama.
Having not had any WTCS races to fine-tune form beforehand, where everyone is at remains a guessing game for now.
US Olympic race
One team that can be expected to race at full bore is the American team. The races to take the final spots on the US Olympic team are among the most intense in the sport and Yokohama could be a decisive turning point.
Taylor Knibb and Morgan Pearson are already qualified and will be racing in Yokohama. Everyone else on the team, though, faces an uncertain wait until the team selection is confirmed. Only a medal in Yokohama will lock another athlete onto the squad. To that end, the American women’s team contains four starters that could podium.
Taylor Spivey won two WTCS medals in 2023 and finished 4th in Yokohama last time out. Summer Rappaport won a single medal in 2023 but previously medalled in Yokohama in 2021. Kirsten Kasper and Gwen Jorgensen likewise will back themselves to get onto the podium. Notably, Jorgensen was switched out of WTCS Cagliari for Katie Zaferes to give Zaferes a look in. As such, Yokohama will be Jorgensen’s solitary opportunity to make her Olympic case.
On the men’s side, the American men will also scramble to join Pearson on the team. Matthew McElroy may be the front-runner as a former WTCS medallist, but the race could turn on its head very quickly indeed.
French men’s race
In Yokohama, there will be plenty of other Olympic races, ranging from national rivalries, New Flag hunts, and battles in the Olympic rankings. One such national race will be among the French men’s team. We touched upon this in the men’s race preview and a tight contest will be in store.
On paper, the third and final French men’s slot will go to Vincent Luis or Leo Bergere. The world champion Dorian Coninx should be sage, although he needs a top-6 finish to prove his fitness. Pierre Le Corre has claimed the other slot provisionally. He raced the French Grand Prix season opener and will use WTCS Cagliari to prove his fitness for the Games.
With one slot to be allocated between two world champions, an almighty internal battle could play out in Yokohama. Intriguingly, based on their wins in the 2022 season, Luis and Bergere may be best served in cooperating in Yokohama, even though their interests dictate that they drop the other.
A breakaway may be their best chance of winning the race, which would provide the clearest possible case that they should be in Paris. To do that, though, Bergere may need Luis to set a furious pace in the swim and Luis may need Bergere’s immense power on the bike.
Equally, there is a slim opportunity of everything flipping. Should Luis and Bergere engineer a breakaway and both make it onto the podium, the pressure will be shifted onto Coninx and Le Corre. Should either of the latter pair trip up, maybe the door will be open for both Luis and Bergere to secure their places in Paris. A French 1-2 in Yokohama, then, could rip up the script entirely.
What shape is Duffy in?
One of the major headlines of the women’s race is that Flora Duffy will make her first WTCS start since November 2022. The last time we saw Duffy in the Series she was dominating the Abu Dhabi Final en route to yet another world title. Prior to that, she won the stops in Bermuda and Hamburg an, technically, is still on a three race winning streak. A gold in Yokohama would make that four.
However, Duffy has suffered with persistent injury trouble since her latest world title. The problems actually began on the road to Abu Dhabi and was forced to take a lengthy break from running.
Having not raced for so long, the question mark over Duffy’s form is even more pronounced than those over the rest of the field. At her best, she could shape the race. At 95% of her best, maybe even 90% if the race breaks her way, she could probably still win. After 18 months out, though, Duffy could just be dipping her toes into the water. When she steps onto the pontoon, anything could happen.
Can Tapia back it up?
One of the biggest story lines from the 2023 race was Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal storming to a maiden WTCS medal in the rain. Tapia made the initial breakaway on the bike and then timed her run to perfection and her outstanding performance saw her claim the silver medal.
A year on, the challenge is to repeat the trick. In an interview with World Triathlon, Tapia noted that her showing last year was only one race and that she wanted to progress and add further medals. In 2023, she also claimed her first international win and made a World Cup podium for the first time. As such, Tapia is clearly a rising prospect.
However, after last year, she will no longer be the surprise package and may come under more scrutiny in the race. Winning a second medal, then, may actually be an even tougher challenge than winning her first.
Old and New
In both the women’s and men’s field, there is a funky symmetry between the older/mature/ancient generation and the influx of Gen Z triathletes. In Yokohama, there will be six women born in the 1980s starting while six will be starting having been born in the 2000s. A clash of the eras could therefore be on offer.
In the ’80s camp, Jorgensen, Duffy, Vicky Holland stand as three former world champions and have all the experience in the world. Alice Betto, Claire Michel and Zsófia Kovács are also savvy racers and no stranger to high finishes in the Series. From the noughties bunch, Emma Lombardi enters as the pre-race favourite while Bianca Serengi has claimed the mantle of being the best swimmer in the field. The youngest woman starting, Tilda Månsson, is racing on the back of consecutive World Cup medals while Sarika Nakayama, Nora Gmür and Zuzana Michalickova complete the younger crew.
The same story appears in the men’s field. Five men on the start list were born in the 1980s while another five were born in 2000s.
Luis, Richard Murray, Gábor Faldum, Rostislav Pevtsov and Michele Sarzilla make up an impressive group in the “golden oldies” squad while Simon Henseleit, Miguel Hidalgo, Dylan McCullough, Ricardo Batista and Sergio Baxter Cabrera – each of whom are World Cup medallists – will defend of the honour of the fidget-spinning kids.
It will be a battle between those that remember dial-up internet and those that know the latest TikTok dances and, while both cohorts contain impressive sets of talent, only one can prevail.
