The final event of the Paris Olympic qualification window is upon us. WTCS Cagliari marks the second stop of this year’s Series and will in all likelihood confirm the Olympic fates of the half the athletes starting. While some athletes will simply put the finishing touches on places earned via the Olympic rankings, others are in live contests that could go down to the wire. In the wider season narrative, the field will also have to strike back at Morgan Pearson and Leonie Periault after they took an early lead in the race to the world title.
Ahead of the racing in Sardinia, take a look below at some of the main topics to track this weekend.
New faces
One thing that stands out about the Cagliari start lists is how different they are to those seen in Yokohama. Over a third of the men’s field did not race at the WTCS season opener while over a quarter of the women’s field likewise will be making their first Series starts of 2024.
While the men’s field has lost the likes of Matthew Hauser, the silver medallist in Yokohama, world champion Dorian Coninx (to injury) and Kenji Nener (after he hit a WTCS personal best last time out), it has gained Alex Yee, Hayden Wilde and more. Similarly, all four of the female WTCS race winners from 2023 will be making their first starts of the 2024 Series in Cagliari.
With such wholesale change, the dynamics of the race may be somewhat different to those seen in Japan. The men’s race, for example, may have more urgency to break up the field early on to drop Yee and Wilde.
British Olympic race
One of the key sub-plots to track in Cagliari will be the British Olympic selection battle. One slot remains alongside Yee on the men’s team, however it is the women’s race that will capture the most attention.
After her exploits in 2023, Beth Potter is safely on the team. The two slots left will be carved up between three 2023 WTCS medallists: Georgia Taylor-Brown, Sophie Coldwell and Kate Waugh. Realistically, it will take a medal-winning performance from any of that trio to secure their place on the British Olympic team and, based on recent history, any of them could do so.
Looking to their 2024 form, Taylor-Brown finished 3rd at the European Cup in Quarteira (behind Lisa Tertsch and Cassandre Beaugrand) and then took the silver medal at the Lievin World Cup. Waugh earned the silver medal behind Emma Lombardi and ahead of Coldwell at the Melilla European Cup. Two weeks ago, Waugh also finished 10th at WTCS Yokohama.
There is not a great deal to separate the three contenders. As the winner of the past two editions of WTCS Cagliari, though, Taylor-Brown may fancy her chances most.
Zaferes’ chance
After a dramatic end to her 2023 season, Katie Zaferes had a win at the Vina del Mar expunged through a disqualification for a course infraction. Beyond the loss of the gold medal, of greater consequence was the loss of world ranking points. Zaferes therefore started 2024 as the sixth ranked American woman and on the outside looking in when it came to WTCS selection.
Having not been able to race in Yokohama, Zaferes was also not originally on the start list for Cagliari. However she was substituted in for Gwen Jorgensen to give her a chance to state her case for selection to the American Olympic team.
After Taylor Spivey finished 4th and Kirsten Kasper finished 5th behind the already-qualified Taylor Knibb in Yokohama, it will take a big performance from Zaferes in Cagliari to advance her claim. With only one shot, the pressure will be on but the defending Olympic bronze medallist will no doubt be equal to the challenge.
The Paris auditions
While Hayden Wilde won the bronze medal in Tokyo, and Henri Schoeman did the same in Rio de Janeiro, it is uncommon for an athlete to make it onto the Olympic podium without a WTCS medal (or world level medal for those racing prior to 2009) to their name. While there is every possibility a Wilde or Schoeman emerges in Paris this summer, chances are the medallists will come from an existing pool of contenders.
Cagliari will thus be one of the last shots for athletes to prove their status as a legitimate medal contender. WTCS Hamburg will take place in July although there is a chance of a depleted field with it being less than three weeks out from the Games. The bike crash in Yokohama that saw Dorian Coninx sustain a double fracture offers one reason as to why some athletes might avoid Hamburg ahead of Paris.
When it comes to possible Olympic medallists on the men’s side, Morgan Pearson put up his hand in Yokohama to join Yee, Wilde, Hauser, Hellwig and more as a real contender. The question in Cagliari will be whether athletes like Miguel Hidalgo, Csongor Lehmann or Vetle Bergsvik Thorn can add themselves to that group by earning a first medal. Equally, can the likes of Jawad Abdelmoula, Antonio Serrat Seoane, Vincent Luis and Roberto Sanchez Mantecon push themselves back into the group of contenders having not medalled in the Series since 2022?
The women’s field in Cagliari is rather crowded with four winners from 2023 starting, plus Leonie Periault, who won in Yokohama, and the 2022 world champion, Flora Duffy. Nevertheless, there is scope for further athletes to push themselves into the elite group.
Can Taylor Spivey or Emma Lombardi claim a maiden win? Can Nina Eim or Miriam Casillas win a first medal? Can Maya Kingma or Zaferes return to the podium for the first time in a coupe of years?
After Cagliari, the likely medallists for Paris will be narrowed down to a cohort of realistic contenders and those that want to be a part of that group therefore have one final shot to assert themselves.
The last slot
One race not to be ignored in Cagliari is the contest for the final slot in the Olympic rankings. In the men’s race, Badr Siwane will go head-to-head against Gregor Payet in the hope of claiming the last berth. It is in the women’s race, though, that the most cut-throat situation can be found.
Petra Kurikova currently holds the final slot from 58th in the Olympic rankings. However, with Erica Hawley (60th), Dominika Jamnicky (62nd), Zuzana Michalickova (63rd) and Tereza Zimovjanova (65th) all in within striking distance of the Czech athlete, any of five women could leave Sardinia with the final place.
Indeed, if two athletes have massive performances, even Lisa Perterer in 55th could come under pressure.
Only one of the group can qualify and so when the racing ends in Cagliari, at least four women will see their Olympic dreams shattered by the difference of only a couple of hundred points. At the most important moment of their careers to date, someone will have to step up.
