The men’s field ahead of the 2024 season is brimming with talent. Any of about a dozen men could conceivably win a WTCS race and vie for a spot on the podium at the Paris Olympic Games.
Such is the depth at the top of the sport, there has been a near-complete shift in the podium from the 2021 Olympics to the 2023 WTCS. Hayden Wilde was the only man to make both podiums and is the only constant in the top-4.
Kristian Blummenfelt, Alex Yee and Marten Van Riel were replaced by Dorian Coninx, Leo Bergere and Vasco Vilaca in the race to make the podium in 2023. Any of the above listed names, though, could end 2024 with a stack of medals.
We therefore posed the question asking which of the 2021 and 2023 men’s podiums (in reality top-4 when factoring in Wilde) will come out on top this year.
In the end, 55% (rounded to the nearest integer) opted for the 2023 cohort while 45% took the 2021 group. This is a narrower margin than was seen in the equivalent women’s poll. While the 2023 women’s podium was also favoured, they received a larger share of the vote (64%).
An element of recency bias has to be factored into account. The 2023 podium/top-4, by definition, enjoyed the more recent success and so appear more reliable to replicate their levels in 2024. By contrast, two of the 2021 top-4 – Blummenfelt and Van Riel – have not made the podium at a WTCS race since 2021. The former chose to prioritise new challenges for a spell while the latter suffered with injury for almost a year.
Should Blummenfelt and Van Riel return to their 2021 levels, a podium is well within reach. The passage of time, though, engenders a slight doubt that does not exist to the same degree with the 2023 group.
Yee was one of the best triathletes in 2023, winning three WTCS races, and only missed the top-4 of the WTCS due to an anomalous off-day at the WTCS Final. Had the question focused on which individual would fare best on his day in 2024, Yee would be among the favourites.
Given the question pertained to the collective podiums (or top-4 finishers), Yee’s race winning antics were not enough to carry the 2021 podium.
As 2024 gets underway, then, it seems the most recent WTCS podium are the favourites to succeed this year. However, the Tokyo podium cannot be ignored. Just as they did in this poll, look for them to run the 2023 cohort close when the racing kicks off.
