After a breakout year, Manoel Messias of Brazil was originally slated to race the Viña del Mar World Cup. With his running speed combined with the exceptional form he has shown in recent months, he would have been an easy pick for the win. As it happens, though, Messias will not be starting in Viña del Mar and his absence makes the race significantly more unpredictable.
The race has all the hallmarks of becoming a foot race out of T2. Tantalisingly, several athletes with remarkable running speed will be taking to the start line.
David Castro Fajardo of Spain is probably the safest bet. Already this year he placed 5th at WTCS Cagliari and 5th at the Valencia World Cup, unleashing great run splits at both. 2022 has been a quiet year for Castro. His only other finish came from his win at the Spanish National Championships at the end of August.
He certainly won’t be coming into Viña del Mar off the back of a long season like some of his rivals and his form does not indicate any rustiness.
Another fast runner that it is hard to look past is Jawad Abdelmoula. After taking his first World Cup win in Tongyeong in 2021, Abdelmoula stepped up this year to take his first ever WTCS medal in Hamburg in July. Like Castro, he possesses an outstanding run. Indeed, with his background in athletics, Abdelmoula may be the better pure runner of the two.
Roberto Sanchez Mantecon is another athlete to keep an eye on. On the World Cup front, he comes into this race in good form following a 4th place finish at Karlovy Vary and a 9th in Valencia. He also took bronze at WTCS Bermuda last week. He should come into this race in good form but there may be an emotional hangover after such a high in Bermuda.
On the WTCS level, Sanchez Mantecon has also been fairly consistent having finished 14th in Montreal and 18th in Yokohama. One point to note is that Sanchez Mantecon actually outran Messias in Karlovy Vary, narrowly missing the best run of the day.
Sanchez Mantecon’s compatriot Genis Grau is yet another fast Spaniard with exceptional running speed that could be a threat in a foot race. The question mark over Grau, though, is his form since a brilliant win at the Huatulco World Cup earlier this year. He has not been particularly consistent, whereas athletes like Castro and Sanchez Mantecon have produced a number of strong results. If he is on, though, there are few better runners around over 5km.
A rising athlete with a recent strong World Cup showing is Aram Michell Peñaflor Moysen. He came 4th in Tongyeong where he had the 3rd fastest run split of the day. The challenge he faces is that his swim and bike are a little weaker than the other athletes listed so far so he might lose some ground to them which, given their running abilities, he cannot afford to do. That being said, Viña del Mar is not the most punishing course in the world so he could make it through to the run with the leaders and fight for the win.
Diego Moya could be an interesting athlete to watch. After placing 18th in WTCS Montreal this year and 9th in the Huatulco World Cup, he has a couple of results that suggest he could be in contention. The real factors that point in his favour though are his 2nd place in the 2022 Viña del Mar Americas Cup and his recent 2nd place at the Americas Championships. He is coming into this race in form and with previous success at the location. Moreover, he may be able to tap into the support of a home crowd. All told, he could be on the cusp of a big performance.
The dark horse in the race undoubtedly is Morgan Pearson. Pearson has not raced internationally since WTCS Abu Dhabi in 2021 so it would be fair if he came into this race a little rusty. It would also not be a surprise if his eyes are focused ahead on the WTCS Final in Abu Dhabi at the end of November and this race is more for training purposes.
However, as a two-time WTCS medallist in 2021 (after taking 3rd in Yokohama and 2nd in Leeds) it would be remiss to overlook his chances. While he did not have the result he wanted in the Tokyo Olympics individually, he logged a fantastic leg in the Mixed Relay to deliver a medal for team USA. On his day, he brings a very well-rounded skillset to the table but, most importantly, he brings running speed. If he is sharp, he could win the race. In light of his lack of racing, that might not be entirely likely, but it would be foolish to count him out.
This race is a tough one to call and there are any number of unknowns that could influence it. David Castro Fajardo seems like he will be the man to take the win this weekend. It is hard to leave Sanchez Mantecon out of the top-5, but Bermuda will likely have taken both a physical and emotional toll and several of his rivals come into this race just that little bit fresher.
TriStats Predictions
- David Castro Fajardo
- Jawad Abdelmoula
- Diego Moya
- Genis Grau
- Morgan Pearson
