As we enter the top-12 of the TriStats top-30 rankings, the upcoming athletes could contend for a medal at virtually any WTCS race. Some do not have multiple medals to their name (yet) and some will favour certain courses over others. Each man, though, is capable of performing at rarefied levels.
Moreover, at this point, the athletes listed here will have their sights set on a top-10 finish in the overall WTCS.
12) Jonathan Brownlee GBR
We start with one of the biggest names in the sport. An individual Olympic medallist in London and Rio, Brownlee won his sole WTCS title in 2012.
He has thirteen WTCS gold medals to his name and has no weakness in any discipline.
Early in 2022, he won the World Cup in Arzachena which suggested he was in form to have a big season. However, a bike crash at WTCS Leeds put him out of action with a broken elbow. While that cost him a summer racing block, it did not put an end to his season.
Instead, Brownlee stormed back to win the silver medal at WTCS Cagliari after a well-timed breakaway with Jumpei Furuya. That represented his first WTCS medal since 2019.
Brownlee is now one of the oldest athletes in the field. On the one hand that confers the experience to make moves such as in Cagliari. On the other hand, it suggests that he might not be able to recapture some of his best form from ten years ago. Since the start of 2018, he has won one WTCS race so he might not be a contender to win races or the overall Series.
A fully fit Brownlee, though, is more than capable of contending for medals and it would not be a surprise if he nabs at least one.
11) Vasco Vilaca POR
Vilaca is almost a decade younger than Brownlee. Despite having been on the scene for a few years now, it is easy to forget just how young he is.
Last year, he could have raced the World U23 Championships instead of the WTCS Final in Abu Dhabi. At this point, though, Vilaca is so firmly established in the Senior men’s field that it was better for him to fight for a top-10 in the overall WTCS.
Indeed, in 2022, he finished 8th in the overall Series after finishing 4th in Leeds, and 7th in Hamburg (2022), Yokohama and Abu Dhabi (2021).
Furthermore, in 2020, at the single day world championships in Hamburg, Vilaca won the silver medal behind Vincent Luis. It feels like another medal for Vilaca is only a matter of time.
He has a very balanced skillset; at WTCS Bermuda, he showed he has the strength in the swim and on the bike to be a part of breakaways. His running speed has also been well-known for years.
Whereas Brownlee has the more recent WTCS medal, Vilaca has been the more consistent athlete and is still young enough to expect big improvements. That lack of a 2022 medal is what keeps him out of the top-10 right now, but with time on his side Vilaca will be a challenger for years to come.
10) Antonio Serrat Seoane ESP
After two 5th place finishes in Hamburg and Abu Dhabi (both in 2021), Serrat Seoane had been knocking on the door of a first WTCS medal for a while. It was at WTCS Bermuda that he finally made the step up as he won the silver medal.
In Bermuda, he unleashed the fastest run, out splitting the likes of Yee, Blummenfelt, Geens and Luis. It was a real statement and the sign he had arrived at the highest level.
Those results helped him towards 7th place overall in the WTCS.
Serrat Seoane is still developing his consistency, as three finishes outside the top-25 last year show. Part of that, though, was a result of racing at every WTCS event. The sheer workload meant that some off performances were to be expected.
To go with that, he also won a silver medal at the Pontevedra World Cup.
Right now, Serrat Seoane is equally adept at the Olympic and Sprint distances. He still loses a bit of time on the swim, however his run has developed considerably over the past few seasons.
If he continues his current trajectory, he will contend for more WTCS medals this season.
9) Manoel Messias BRA
The 2015 World Junior champion confirmed all of his young promise in 2022.
Messias won a silver medal at the Arzachena World Cup early in the season and shortly after finished 5th at WTCS Montreal. As the season rolled into autumn, though, he found a new gear.
He started by winning the Valencia World Cup. That day, he used a late breakaway on the bike with Tjebbe Kaindl to buy himself a small gap into the run. He then held off a contingent of rapid runners, including Mola, McElroy and Serrat Seoane, to take the win in style. Messias’ win in Valencia showed great tactical nous. Perhaps more than anything, it was a stylish way to win.
Not long after, he won the bronze medal at WTCS Cagliari with the second fastest run split of the day.
It is worth acknowledging that Brownlee beat Messias twice, in Arzachena and Cagliari. However, Messias is younger and has shown he is still improving.
On balance, it feels like Messias is on the cusp of an even larger breakout and is not far away from contending for the overall WTCS crown.
8) Kristian Blummenfelt NOR
Time moves pretty fast.
In 2021, Blummenfelt won the world and Olympic title and was indisputably the best triathlete in the world. And yet, a little over a year later, times have changed.
In Tokyo, Alex Yee and Hayden Wilde joined Blummenfelt on the podium and at that point they felt like the junior members of the trio. That very much changed in 2022 as both established themselves as two of the men to beat in the WTCS.
Blummenfelt, meanwhile, spent a lot of his 2022 focusing on long distance triathlon. With the Paris Olympics on his mind, he nevertheless returned to the short distance scene.
A silver medal behind Dorian Coninx at the Bergen World Cup was a good start and suggested his return would be smooth sailing. That being said, the hints of weakness were present even in Bergen. He lost time in the swim and had to ride through two packs to rejoin the front. On the one hand, that demonstrated his enormous bike strength. On the other, it exposed a real vulnerability in the water.
Once he stepped up to the WTCS ranks, that vulnerability became starker.
At WTCS Bermuda, he managed to finish 6th and at WTCS Abu Dhabi he took 8th. Both are solid results when viewed in isolation. Viewed from the perspective of a long distance athlete taking on short distance athletes, they are very good.
However, compared to Blummenfelt’s 2021 form, they are a bit underwhelming.
At both Bermuda and Abu Dhabi, Blummenfelt did not have the speed in the water and he gave up over 35 seconds to the leaders. That left him in the chase pack on the bike. However, whereas he was able to ride through in Bergen, at the WTCS level he was not alone strong enough to haul in a breakaway pack.
He ran well in Bermuda and Abu Dhabi but there were a number of better runners at both events.
All this is to say that coming into 2023 Blummenfelt is not the proposition he was. With the trend towards breakaways to catch out the elite runners, his swim has become a major Achilles heel. On the run, he will likely be sharper after a winter of preparation. However, there are so many good runners at the front of the race now it is hard to see Blummenfelt beating all of them.
His 2021 form makes him impossible to omit from the top-10 and looking ahead to this year he can probably be expected to medal at some races.
But will he win WTCS races? At this point it feels unlikely.
7) Lasse Lührs GER
Lührs is similar to Blummenfelt in several respects. Over the Olympic distance, his swim can be a bit of a weakness. However, he is a strong cyclist and a brilliant runner.
At WTCS Bermuda, Lührs finished in 7th and was right on Blummenfelt’s hip the whole way.
What makes Lührs stand out though, are his 4th place at WTCS Cagliari and his bronze medal at WTCS Leeds. In another world, he could have edged the sprint finish in Cagliari and he would have two medals from last year.
Lührs did not have a great WTCS Final and finished way down the field. Despite that, he still finished 9th in the Series.
On paper, it feels like he is a bit stronger at the Sprint distance. He certainly feels more likely to take a WTCS medal at that distance than Blummenfelt. At the same time, Lührs also won a World Cup bronze in Karlovy Vary and has repeatedly demonstrated his strength over the Olympic distance.
2022 was a big step forward for Lührs and, being born in 1996, it feels like he isn’t done there.
This year will be his chance to consolidate his position as the best German male triathlete and, perhaps, as one of the five best triathletes in the world.
