Yesterday we looked into the countries that are in with a chance of qualifying three men for the Paris Olympic Games in 2024. Today, it is the turn of the women.
To qualify three women, a country will need to have three athletes inside the top-30 of the Olympic qualification rankings by the end of the qualifying window in May 2024.
Looking at the current rankings, a select group of countries have essentially sealed their third slots. Britain have three women in the top-7 of the rankings. Germany have three in top-11 (and six in the top-30). Finally, America have three athletes in the top-13.
Given the considerable gap between 15th and 30th, it is unlikely the third athlete of those countries will slip out of the top-30. As such, Britain, Germany and America are all but guaranteed a third woman in Paris. Even with injuries to any of their leading women, their points advantage is such that they could feasibly not race again until the end of the qualifying window and still earn their spots.
France is next country in line to qualify a third woman with three women in the top-24. There is a world in which they do not qualify a third woman, although it is not an especially likely scenario.
Leonie Periault is the third ranked French athlete (after Cassandre Beaugrand and Emma Lombardi). Her 3699 points puts her in 24th place. Crucially, she is only 100 points away from taking 21st and could conceivably take a top-20 slot. With only nine races (of her potential twelve to her name) she will almost certainly rise in the rankings.
At the same time, the woman currently ranked 30th is Noelia Juan (with 3334 points). If Periault gets injured, for example, and does not race again, or the athletes below have a series of great races, the French woman could miss out. On balance, though, she will stay in the top-30 and France will have three women at the Games.
If four countries can plan ahead for three female athletes to race in Paris, which other teams are on the verge of joining them?
Italy is well-positioned to make a move. With Verena Steinhauser in 18th and Bianca Seregni in 25th, they have two athletes that are well-placed inside the top-30. Although, with 3654 points Seregni remains slightly vulnerable and the athletes in 31st and 32nd (Natalie Van Coevorden and Cathia Schär) are less than 400 points away from her.
The third Italian women is Ilaria Zane in 35th. She is not too far away to close in on a top-30 slot. However, she has 2838 points and is the best part of 500 points behind Juan. In addition, Zane already has twelve scores to her name so only improvements of existing results will help her. That being said, Zane has won two World Cup medals this year and could close the gap.
Beyond Zane, Alice Betto can also be considered. She is ranked 52nd but she did just win the Brasilia World Cup. The problem for Betto is that she did not race in first half of the qualification period. Her absence of scores from then hurts her chances and makes it unlikely that she can close the gap.
Spain is another country in contention to qualify three women.
With Miriam Casillas Garcia safe in 14th and Juan on the bubble in 30th, they already have two athletes inside the top-30. Anna Godoy Contreras (48th) and Marta Pintanel Raymundo (56th) are their next athletes and could rise. However, both already have twelve scores to their name which may limit the room for them to add points.
Belgium are also in a competitive position.
Jolien Vermeylen is in 23rd place with 3731 points and should be out of reach from athletes outside the top-30. Her compatriots, Claire Michel and Valerie Barthelemy, then rest in 33rd and 46th, respectively.
Unlike Italy and Spain, Belgium would need two athletes to rise into top-30 which is a little harder. Michel’s recent form, which includes a World Cup silver medal, makes it possible. Furthermore, Barthelemy already has twelve scores to her name but her Second Period scores have been a bit lower than those she logged in the First Period. It therefore is possible for her to make improvements to her ranking as it only requires a return to her form of 2022.
By contrast, Godoy has scored significantly more points in the Second Period already, making it harder for her to still add points even though she has a similar ranking to Barthelemy.
The Netherlands have two women in top-30 through Rachel Klamer (21st) and Maya Kingma (26th). Klamer has also punched her ticket for the Games next summer after qualifying at the WTCS Final in Pontevedra, However, the Netherlands do not have another woman ranked inside the top-100.
Mexico and Brazil are two countries with an athlete already in the top-30 and two more women in the top-100. For the former, Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal leads the way in 19th. Lizeth Rueda Santos follows in 36th while Anahi Alvarez Corral is the third woman in 73rd.
Intriguingly, Alvarez only has six scores to her name and so could add several more scores before the end of the qualifying window. Moreover, she is a World Cup winner (having won in Huatulco this year) and could rise dramatically with further World Cup success. On the other hand, she also has a prominent weakness in the swim that has so far prevented her from becoming a consistent threat. Gauging where Alvarez will end up (and therefore the prospects of a third Mexican slot) currently is a little trickier as she could go either way at races.
For Brazil, Vittoria Lopes will fight to hang on to her ranking of 29th. She is only 130 points ahead of Van Coevorden (who is ranked 31st). After Lopes, Djenyfer Arnold is ranked 38th and Luisa Baptista is ranked 51st. Arnold already has twelve scores although Baptista only has eight so could rise up.
In conclusion, Italy are in the best position as things to stand to become the fifth team with three women at the Olympic Games. It will be a major challenge for either Zane or Betto to break into the top-30 but it is not impossible.
Mexico, Spain and Brazil also have outside chances although they will require some huge performances in the coming months.
It is no easy thing to put three athletes in the top-30 of the Olympic rankings. One thing is for sure, though. The race to do so will likely have several twists and turns to go before the qualifying window closes in May.
