If a country puts three men inside the top-30 of the Olympic qualification rankings at the end of the qualifying window, they will earn a third men’s slot for the Paris Olympic Games next summer.
Qualifying three men (or women) to the Olympics is a major statement of depth and is usually reserved to the select powerhouses of the sport. At this point in time, the men’s race to qualify three men is entering a tense phase. A group of countries are all primed to put a third man in the top-30 and, to do so, they will likely have to achieve it at the expense of others.
There are only three World Cup events remaining in 2023. Such races can be used to score points towards an Olympic ranking. Thereafter, the athletes will have to scramble for points in 2024 before the end of the qualifying window next May.
With four men in the top-20 plus (Vincent Luis in 21st), France are all but guaranteed three men at the Olympic Games. World champion Dorian Coninx and Pierre Le Corre are currently pencilled in to race for France, with the third slot still to be allocated.
Germany are the only other country that are virtually assured of three men. They, too, have three men inside the top-20.
As things stand, Bence Bicsák of Hungary (ranked 24th) looks to be the cut-off point of men that can currently breathe easy. With 3416 points, Bicsák has a buffer of over 250 points to the next man in the ranking (Vetle Bergsvik Thorn with 3152 points).
Bicsák is by no means guaranteed a spot in the top-24, but at this stage he seems to represent a fairly safe cut-off for a spot in the top-30. By contrast, the the men below him can all be overtaken.
The current occupants of the final top-30 slots are:
- 26th Jawad Abdelmoula – 3140 points
- 27th Sergio Baxter Cabrera – 3063 points
- 28th Márk Dévay – 3046 points
- 29th Adrien Briffod – 2951 points
- 30th Gianluca Pozzatti – 2951 points
Adrien Briffod is the only man in that group to not have logged a full quota of twelve races. The Swiss athlete actually only has eight scores. While the athletes around him will therefore have to improve upon existing performances, Briffod will gain points simply by finishing a few more races.
With that in mind, Briffod s likely to rise further and could overtake Bicsák in 24th by the end of the qualifying window.
All things being equal (and not factoring in the quirks of national selection policies), some of the men inside the top-30 will realistically go to the Paris Olympics regardless of if they slip outside of the group.
Abdelmoula is probably the best example of this. He has no close Moroccan rivals in the rankings and is essentially safe when it comes to national selection.
However, for some the question of qualifying a third man for the Olympics makes their ranking of the utmost importance.
David Castro Fajardo is ranked in 31st with 2939 points. He is therefore very close to Briffod and Pozzatti. Moreover, Castro only has eleven scores to his name. His next finish will automatically add points to his tally, likely moving him up the rankings.
Gábor Faldum is in 32nd with 2886 points while Makoto Odakura follows with 2826 points. Although he only has ten scoring races to his name, Max Studer is in 34th with 2765 points.
Lasse Nygaard Priester then rounds out the top-35 with 2700 points. However, with Lasse Lührs, Jonas Schomburg and Tim Hellwig all secure inside the top-20, Priester moving up will not affect Germany’s third slot.
Both Hellwig and Lührs have booked their place on the Olympic team, so Schomburg will try to hold off Priester for the third slot.
When it comes to the Games then, what do the various top-30 candidates need to do?
Thorn can technically afford to fall out of the top-30. He is the second Norwegian man as things stand. However, Casper Stornes has overtaken Gustav Iden and is now the next Norwegian man in 85th place. He therefore has a limited shot at making the top-30. The value in Thorn holding position lies not in qualifying a third man, then, but rather in helping his own personal selection.
For Hungary, two of Bicsák, Dévay and Faldum must stay in top-30 to qualify three men (Csongor Lehmann is safe in 8th). Similarly, one of Baxter or Castro must stay in top-30 for Spain to send three men to Paris (Antonio Serrat Seoane in 12th and Roberto Sanchez Mantecon in 17th are safe).
At this point, Hungary and Spain can be confident of qualifying three men, although it will be a tight affair. With personal selection on the line, the competition between the athletes from both countries could also be fierce.
The Swiss team have Briffod and Studer as their leading men. Their next best athlete in the rankings is Sylvain Fridelance in 59th. Realistically, they are not in contention for a third slot.
Italy are in the same boat. Pozzatti is the second Italian man after Michele Sarzilla (in 20th) but the next closest man is Nicola Azzano in 77th.
If Switzerland and Italy are less likely to send three men, there are some teams with outside shots.
Odakura is in line to qualify for Japan as things stand (Kenji Nener will be the first man in from 16th). With Ren Sato in 46th, he could conceivably close the gap to 30th.
Moreover, although Britain only have one man in the top-30, they have two athletes that are within striking distance. Barclay Izzard (38th) and Jonathan Brownlee (40th) will a string of big results to join Alex Yee (3rd) in the top-30. If both are able to do so, Britain will be able to send three men to Paris.
Notably, Izzard only has eleven scores while Brownlee only has nine. Should they fill out their quotas, top-30 places could be within reach.
Portugal are in the same position as Britain. They only have Vasco Vilaca safely lodged inside the top-30. In Joao Silva (42nd) and Ricardo Batista (51st), though, they could push towards putting three men in the top-30.
However, while Batista’s form has been very promising (and he only has ten scores), Silva has not logged a single score in the Second Period (since the end of May 2023). At the end of the First Period, he was ranked 15th. However, his lack of racing has left him vulnerable. If he can recapture his form of 2022-23, he could rise back up with ease. Yet it all depends on his return.
In conclusion, the real race to join France and Germany to send three men to Paris is being contested by the Hungarian and Spanish squads. It appears that both will be able to rise to the challenge.
Should any countries like Britain, Portugal or Japan rise in the coming months, though, Hungary and Spain may have a few nervous looks over their shoulders.
