The Statistical Breakdown of the 2023 World U23 Champs

One of the abiding images of the World U23 Championships in Pontevedra was the German flag flying at the top of the men’s and women’s podiums. In both events, Selina Klamt and Simon Henseleit judged their races to perfection.

In this article, we will delve into the finer details of the racing and uncover how exactly the German duo claimed their victories while investigating where their rivals lost crucial ground.

Swim

Klamt got off to a perfect start as she led the swim in a time of 18:36.

The distribution of swim times above shows how the women’s swim was quite fractured, which speaks to the pace at the front. The dip in density after the 30 second mark saw a big split in the field and those that managed to exit prior to the 30 second mark were well-placed to make the initial front pack.

The men’s swim distribution had a similar shape although the total range between the fastest and slower swimmers was narrower.

As with the women, after the 30 second mark the concentration of athletes plummeted. Anyone over 40 seconds behind did not make the front group and that essentially ended the hopes of the likes of David Cantero del Campo and Yanis Seguin.

Henseleit was the tenth man out of the water and 10 seconds behind the fastest split. He therefore emerged just before the first spike in the concentration of athletes.

Bike

Jessica Fullagar launched a full-bore attack early on in the bike and broke away from the front group. Surprisingly, though, she was not the quickest athlete on the course. Tanja Neubert rode faster while Cathia Schär virtually matched the soloist at the front.

The key to the bike lay in the subsequent laps. As Fullagar progressively slowed and the efforts of being alone at the front took their toll, Schär maintained her tempo. First Neubert caught the Klamt-led front group. Then Schär made it. From there, Fullagar was reeled in.

The fourth lap was key to shutting down Fullagar’s move and it is possible to see how the lead group eased off the pace in the fifth and sixth laps.

Klamt also rode a smart race. She stuck to her teammate, Neubert, once the packs joined. Moreover, in contrast to the likes of Fullagar, Neubert and Schär, Klamt’s bike splits were a lot more stable throughout the course. This enabled her to conserve energy for the run.

Further behind, the chase group containing Anahi Alvarez Corral did not make headway at any point and ended up over 4 minutes back when they arrived in T2.

In the above graphic, you can visualise how Fullagar stayed away and the group caught her. A pivotal moment was the merging of the pack of 12 and the pack of 13 into a large chase pack of 25. Thereafter there was no hope for the leader.

You can also see how the front group slowed on lap 5 and lap 6, which allowed the distant chase to limit their losses for a spell. Towards the end of the bike, however, the gap grew significantly.

Bradley Course used his strength on the bike to catch the lead group after conceding a small gap in the swim. He went on to log the joint fastest split of the field.

However, the chase group containing David Cantero del Campo did not quite get a look in. For half of the bike course, the chase leaked around 10 seconds per lap. Having lost time in the water already, this truly put an end to the chasers’ hopes of a medal.

You can see above how Henseleit rode safely with the likes of Alessio Crociani and Panagiotis Bitados at the front. That was until the final lap. Then, he busted one of the fastest laps of the field to take a perfect position into T2.

Once the front pack came together on lap 3, it was game over for the chasers. With the strength of Course and Lachlan Haycock added to the lead group, the chasers struggled to overpower the leaders. They managed to limit their losses for a couple of laps but the advantage of the leaders slowly told.

Between lap 3 and lap 8, the gap grew by 50 seconds.

Run

Such was Alvarez’s speed, she was quite literally off the charts. She produced the most comprehensive sub-8 minute opening lap of either the U23 or Senior race in Pontevedra. Across each subsequent lap, she was substantially faster than everyone else in the race.

Her blazing split helped her to 15th, although her result goes to show the importance of the swim and the bike.

The development of the run lap times also demonstrate how Klamt and Tomé knocked off their rivals one by one. Fullagar fell away after the first lap. Schär dropped back after the second and then Prestia slipped behind after the third.

Perhaps the energy Klamt conserved on the bike paid off for she was able to summon a final push to take down Tomé.

Cantero enjoyed a huge last lap and that went a long way in enabling him to out-split Henseleit by 35 seconds.

The Spanish athlete had been the fastest man on the course throughout the run. Having lost time in the previous two disciplines, though, he was out of contention.

In the run lap times, you can see how Esteban Basanta Fouz slipped out of the medals. Having duelled Henseleit for provisional first place at one point, he ended up outside the top-3. The incoming news of his disqualification may have hurt his efforts, though.

When assessing the run times, Henseleit really won the race on the first two laps. Passemard matched his pace on the second half of the run, but the German athlete’s early aggression paid dividends.

We can also compare the women’s and mens run time distributions. You can see the relevant graphs below.

The men’s run time distribution is much smoother and peaks earlier. The problem with the women’s graph was how exceptional Alvarez’s split was. Her presence really skews the data and results in the much more bizarre looking line.

Had it not been televised, you would almost have to ask if it actually happened.

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