Portugal is a team that brims with potential. However, it may also miss out on at least two of the three triathlon events at the Paris Olympics. Working out what the country may do on the triathlon scene this year is thus no easy feat.
While the national team has the talent to qualify, both in the relay and individually, as things stand they are only in line to earn two men’s slots. None of the women are currently in a qualifying position and the relay is also on the outside looking in.
With a big start to the season, the Portuguese team should be able to turn things around. Time, though, is running out.
Who has been selected already?
To date, no one has been selected to the Olympic team. This is because the relay receives first priority in the Portuguese selection policy. Until the status of the relay is cleared up – currently it is not due to qualify – the selections will remain somewhat murky.
One athlete that should be safe regardless of the fate of the relay is Vasco Vilaca. After winning four WTCS medals in 2023 and finishing 4th overall in the Series, Vilaca is all but nailed on as the first name on the team.
The following criteria apply should Portugal send a relay to Paris.
Any Portuguese team that achieves a top-3 at a WTCS relay in the qualification period will earn the slots for the quartet in the medal-winning relay. To make the podium in a race, Vilaca would almost certainly be central. Otherwise, the the top ranked man and woman in the Olympic rankings will be taken to contest the relay (on the men’s side this is Vilaca).
If a relay does not qualify, the first vacancy will go to the first male and female athletes in the Olympic qualification rankings. Again, this is Vilaca and he will be almost impossible to catch after his splendid 2023 season.
While uncertainty plagues much of the Portuguese team, then, one man faces practically no doubts about heading to Paris this summer.
Who could take the remaining slots?
Women
There are realistically only two women that can make it to the Olympic Games for Portugal.
Melanie Santos stands in 70th in the Olympic Qualification rankings. She is only a few places away from qualifying by right. Notably, she does not yet have a full quota of races in the Second Period of qualification. One big result could therefore push her into a qualifying position.
Moreover, Santos is in with a shot to earn the European New Flag slot. In the space of a few races, she could thus stamp her Olympic ticket.
Meanwhile, Maria Tomé, the 2023 World U23 Championships silver medallist, stands in 84th place in the Olympic rankings. Like Santos, she is close to qualifying by right or through the New Flag system. Only one athlete per country can take a New Flag slot, though.
Being the younger athlete, Tomé might be likelier to have the sudden improvement that would deliver a swathe of points. She currently has a full quota of scores however she likely will have taken a boost from her performance at the World U23 Championships and may log some strong results in the near future.
In the event the relay qualifies, Santos and Tomé would also be a lock to be selected. While they will have to hope that either they succeed on an individual level or through the relay, both have realistic hopes of making it to Paris.
Men
Although it has not yet been formally confirmed, to all intents and purposes Vilaca has qualified. Short of a season-ending injury (which hopefully will not affect anyone this season), there is little prospect of him being left at home.
While Vilaca is the only male Portuguese athlete in the top-30 of the Olympic rankings. Ricardo Batista is not far from moving into the same elite company. He is ranked 34th.
A little further back, Joao Silva is ranked 49th. Silva is a curiosity. After an impressive run of form in the First Period, he has no results in Second Period. On earlier form, he would have been a likely candidate to qualify.
Neither Batista nor Silva medalled in overall 2023 WTCS, an important clause that comes after the selection of the top-ranked athlete in the Olympic rankings. Nor have they have shown recent signs that they will win a WTCS race. Winning a WTCS race is the third criteria.
If a relay qualifies then the selection will come down to a discretionary pick. If it does not, the likeliest outcome is that the second slot will roll down to the second man in the Olympic rankings.
Should Silva return, he could easily bolt into the top-30 of the rankings. Should both he and Batista make the jump into the top-30, the selectors would not have to choose between them as both could be taken.
Batista, though, is clearly an athlete on the rise. The form we expected from him at the start of 2023 came to fruition and he has put himself into contention. From here, it can be expected that he will still improve which makes him seem the safer pick to make the Olympic team.
