Right now, Japan is the only Asian country due to qualify athletes in both the men’s and women’s triathlon events at the Paris Olympics. However, they are not in line to send a relay.
A team of one woman and two men is currently forecasted to qualify based on the Olympic rankings. To secure a second women’s slot, someone will either have to step up in the individual Olympic rankings or the whole team will have to pull together and deliver some big relay results.
Who has been selected already?
Although Japan are in line to qualify three athletes in total, as things stand, none of the slots have been determined.
To secure a place on the team, an athlete needed to finish in the top-8 at either the Paris Test Event or at WTCS Pontevedra. Alternatively, they had to finish within 30 seconds of 8th place at either race. Yuko Takahashi was the closest to doing so as she crossed the line 37 seconds away from 8th place in Pontevedra on her way to 14th.
Looking ahead to this season, a top-8 finish at WTCS Yokohama will be the final chance to earn automatic selection. Thereafter, selection will be informed by the Olympic Qualification rankings.
Who could take the remaining slots?
Women
Seeing as Takahashi was already close in Pontevedra – had she been 7 seconds nearer to 8th she would have made the team – she is the best person with whom to begin.
Takahashi is ranked 19th in the Olympic rankings and holds a commanding lead over her compatriots. With no other woman in the top-75, Takahashi is essentially guaranteed to be selected should the slot roll down to the rankings. Having also been the closest woman to meeting the top-8 criteria, it is hard to see anyone denying her a Paris ticket.
After Takahashi the situation will hinge upon relay qualification or a second woman rising up the rankings. Should either scenario come into play, the race will become intense very quickly.
Niina Kishimoto is the next highest woman in the Olympic rankings. She stands in 77th place. Hovering a mere 17 points behind her is Yuka Sato in 78th.
If a relay qualifies, the choice between Kishimoto and Sato will be tough. At the same time, should either gain ten or so places in the Olympic rankings, they could qualify by right individually.
Further down the rankings, Hiraku Fukuoka (93rd) and Sarika Nakayama (94th) could be in with a shout. They are a little over 400 points behind Kishimoto but as young athletes they could rise rapidly.
All things considered, then, Takahashi is effectively safely on the Japanese team. The question is, will anyone join her?
Men
While Kenji Nener did not trouble the top-8 in Paris or Pontevedra, he stands in 19th place in the Olympic rankings and is over 1000 points clear of his closest national rivals.
Furthermore, Nener has a couple of WTCS top-10 finishes to his name, including in the 2023 season. As such, he could conceivably hit the top-8 standard in Yokohama which would confirm his place on the team.
With Nener’s presence on a second Olympic team appearing a strong likelihood, the focus thus shifts to the identity of the man that will join him.
Makoto Odakura is the front-runner. He stands in 37th place in the Olympic rankings with 2826 points. Tailing him are Ren Sato (54th), Takumi Hojo (57th) and Aoba Yasumatsu (61st). Notably, all except Hojo have a full quota of scores. Hojo can add one more race to his Second Period results to fill out his quota. Thereafter, he will have to improve upon existing results.
Today, Hojo has 2197 points; he therefore has a 629 point deficit to Odakura which will be tough to close. While Hojo won a World Cup race in 2023, a World Cup win in Hong Kong (the second such race of the year) would make up less than two-thirds of the deficit. Hojo therefore realistically needs a big WTCS result (or multiple good World Cup finishes) to turn the tide in his favour.
Not to be overlooked is the fact that any of the athletes in the running could get a top-8 finish in Yokohama.
On balance, though, Nener is extremely likely to be selected while Odakura looks primed to join him.
