Only one Belgian triathlete was able to fall asleep on New Year’s Eve safe in the knowledge that they will be going to the Paris Olympic Games. For the rest of the national squad, a convoluted selection policy means that it will be impossible to forecast the team until the very last day of the qualification window.
Much of the complexity with the Belgian selection policy arises from whether or not the team qualifies in the Mixed Relay. Deepening the complications is the fact that Belgium is the top-ranked team of the current non-qualifiers. Three teams are already in (France, Britain and Germany), while six will qualify through the relay rankings. Right now, Belgium is team number 10.
They can either overtake a team ahead to secure qualification or alternatively they might nail qualification at the final Mixed Team Relay Qualification Event. Or, they could miss out altogether.
Even without the relay, Belgium are pretty much set to qualify two men and two women to the Games. However, the make-up of the team could be turned on its head by the outcome of the relay qualification process.
Who has been selected already?
To earn a first priority slot on the team, an athlete has to secure an Olympic slot for Belgium and hit two performance standards; the standards are a top-12 at a WTCS Final, a top-8 at a WTCS race, or a top-3 at the European Championships over the Olympic distance.
Jelle Geens has thus essentially qualified after he won bronze at the WTCS Final in Abu Dhabi in 2022 and bronze at WTCS Montreal in 2023. Being the top-ranked Belgian man in the Olympic rankings, he will on paper also secure a slot for his country.
On the women’s side of the team, the situation gets tricky.
No Belgian women have hit the performance standard twice. As a result, if a relay qualifies the selectors may fill the places at their discretion. However, if a relay does not qualify, then new criteria kick in and hitting the performance standard once may suffice.
To that end, Claire Michel’s 11th place at the WTCS Final in Pontevedra may prove her ticket to Paris. The women’s situation will remain murky at best for a while yet, though.
Who could take the remaining slots?
Women
The easiest place to start is with Michel. Should she record a top-8 finish in the WTCS before the end of May, she will qualify for the Olympics regardless of the status of the relay. The task ahead for her is therefore clear.
For her teammates, all sorts of conditions and twists lie ahead as pot-holes in their road to Paris.
Jolien Vermeylen is now the top-ranked Belgian woman in the Olympic rankings. She finished 9th at WTCS Hamburg last summer; however, not only did she narrowly miss the top-8 but a WTCS performance standard must be achieved at an Olympic distance or Sprint distance event. The Super Sprint eliminator format of Hamburg therefore did not count.
Vermeylen also finished 14th in Paris and 12th in Sunderland. As such, she has been getting close to the top-8 results that would potentially put her on the team. Two top-8 finishes in 2024 will slot her onto the Olympic team come what may with the relay. As with Michel’s 11th place from Pontevedra, one top-8 finish would be enough for Vermeylen if the relay does not qualify.
Valerie Barthelemy is the third Belgian woman in the Olympic rankings. She therefore falls behind in the selection pecking order as first choice goes to the athletes that have qualified a slot for Belgium (essentially the top-2 women in the Olympic rankings). To overtake Michel, Barthelemy either needs one top-8 WTCS finish and to overtake Michel in the Olympic rankings, or she needs two top-8 WTCS finishes.
However, with Barthelemy now 103rd in the Olympic rankings and with a 2023 WTCS best result of 28th in Cagliari, she appears to be behind the curve.
On the other hand, Barthelemy has a saving grace. Although the team right now looks like it would be Vermeylen and Michel, the Belgian selection criteria has another twist.
The question to ask is simple: what happens if none of the Belgian women secure a top-8 WTCS result before the end of May? (Again, this presumes the relay does not qualify; should the relay qualify Barthelemy can also be saved by selector discretion).
In this scenario, one performance standard would be enough for Michel and she would qualify. Neither Vermeylen nor Barthelemy would have the requisite performance standard. The selection policy then has a back-up performance standard for this situation.
If Vermeylen does not get a top-8 at a WTCS event before May, the next priority will go to any athlete with a top-16 finish at a WTCS Final or a top-5 at the European Championships. Barthelemy finished 13th at the WTCS Final in 2022 and suddenly the secondary clause would vault her ahead of Vermeylen in the consideration.
All things being equal, then, here’s how the Belgian women’s team could unfold.
If a relay qualifies and no female athlete has hit two performance standards, discretionary selection will apply. Here, Vermeylen and Michel would fancy their chances.
If relay does not qualify, Michel would be in the box seat while Barthelemy should be in line to take the second slot. Despite being the highest ranked Belgian woman, Vermeylen would need a WTCS top-8 to knock out Barthelemy.
One top-8 for Vermeylen should make her safe (assuming the relay does not qualify). Given her advantage over Barthelemy in the Olympic rankings, Michel theoretically should be safe even if both Vermeylen and Bathelemy hit a top-8 WTCS finish only once, although it could get very close very quickly.
In the coming months, then, one top-8 finish or one big relay result could upend the Belgian women’s team entirely.
Men
The situation is not much simpler on the men’s side.
Geens will take the first slot, leaving one place on the team, although the recipient of the second slot could change depending on the relay.
After Geens, no Belgian man has met the performance standards once, let alone twice. Marten Van Riel has finished 9th twice at WTCS Montreal, although once was over the Super Sprint format which does not count in the selection policy. He does not have a top-8 WTCS finish in the qualifying period. As a previous WTCS medallist, though, he could yet summon his top form.
Arnaud Mengal finished 4th at the European Championships in Madrid. Like Van Riel, he was therefore mightily close to hitting the performance standard once.
Noah Servais is another to watch. He only has three Second Period scores so could rise in the rankings. However, he has also not hit the performance standard.
It is at this point that the relay steps back in.
If the relay qualifies, discretionary selection appears the likely outcome, unless Van Riel returns to his 2021 form and notches multiple top-8 results again. Given his history, Van Riel could be the favourite to earn discretionary selection.
However, if relay does not qualify, and no one hits a top-8 WTCS race in the remaining events, then the selection priority shifts to the secondary performance standard. An athlete needs either a top-16 at a WTCS Final or a top-5 at the European Championships. Technically, Mengal’s 4th place in Madrid last year would put him as the next man in line.
As Van Riel sits higher in the Olympic rankings (and as the second Belgian man he technically would earn Belgium their Olympic slot), any WTCS top-8 by him this year would put him ahead of Mengal. Should he fail to do so, though, Mengal would be positioned to make the Olympic team.
Although neither Barthelemy nor Mengal would necessarily wish for the relay to miss out, at this moment if it did they would be the beneficiaries. If the relay does qualify, though, the game changes.
The Belgian Olympic team therefore hangs in the balance in ways known to only a few other countries.
