At this point in time, it seems fairly assured that Australia will qualify two men and two women at the Olympic Games.
The country’s Mixed Team Relay looks secure, being ranked 7th in the world. With the three teams at the top of the rankings having already qualified, Australia finds itself essentially 4th in the relay qualification rankings. Six teams are due to book their Olympic places through the relay rankings. As such, it is unlikely that Australia will now miss out.
However, a third athlete does not appear a likely prospect in either the men’s or women’s events. The team will nonetheless be hopeful of bringing home at least one medal this summer.
Who has been selected already?
Matthew Hauser is currently the only athlete to have nailed down a place on the Australian Olympic triathlon team. The winner of WTCS Montreal missed the first qualification opportunity at the Paris Test Event due to a COVID-19 positive. From there, he faced a race to recover and return to fitness in time for the second selection race at WTCS Pontevedra.
Despite the bumpy build-up, Hauser managed to finish 8th in Pontevedra, meeting the top-8 requirement set by the Australian selectors.
As Australia’s only WTCS medallist of the current Olympic cycle, Hauser will shoulder almost the entirety of his federation’s medal expectations in Paris.
Who could take the remaining slots?
Women
Only one criterion remains through which an athlete may add themselves to the Olympic team. Thereafter, selector discretion will come into effect.
If an athlete achieves a top-5 finish at a Sprint distance WTCS race or a top-8 at an Olympic distance WTCS event, to be determined between March and May 2024, they can secure their place.
Among the women in contention, Natalie Van Coevorden is the only athlete in the top-30 of the Olympic rankings. In 2022, she logged 11th place finishes at WTCS Montreal (albeit over the Super Sprint format) and at WTCS Leeds. She also finished 13th at WTCS Bermuda that year. Last season, she placed 14th in Yokohama and 16th in Cagliari. As such, Van Coevorden has been within range of hitting the top-8 requirement.
After missing out on the Tokyo Olympics due to selector discretion, Van Coevorden will hope to lock in her slot at the Paris Games through a big WTCS result.
Jaz Hedgeland finished 19th in Cagliari in 2022. Her result in Sardinia stands as her only Olympic distance WTCS top-20 in the qualification window. In 2023, he best result was a 19th place in Abu Dhabi (over the Sprint distance).
Sophie Linn finished 20th at WTCS Hamburg in both 2022 and 2023 while Charlotte McShane, Kira Hedgeland, Emma Jackson among the other options. In general, depth is the defining quality of the Australian women’s squad right now. There is plenty of talent in the team and the athletes have been of a similar level recently.
As a result, the Australian women’s team could be entirely made up by discretionary selections. After Van Coevorden fell foul of the same approach in Tokyo, she will be anxious to avoid the same fate. Fortunately, relay considerations should bolster her case this time round.
The best relay performance of the last couple of years by far was the silver in Hamburg from 2022. That day, Linn and Van Coevorden combined to good effect. Both have also raced in other world level relays. If the relay is to prove central to the selectors’ approach, Van Coevorden and Linn could be the eventual combination.
Men
With one spot up for grabs on the men’s side, it remains to be seen whether an athlete will step up at the appropriate WTCS race in 2024 or if discretion will govern the selection.
Jacob Birtwhistle, a former WTCS race winner, will probably be in contention. Among his best recent finishes he can count an 11th place at WTCS Montreal, which took place over the Sprint distance last summer. Another Australian athlete, Brandon Copeland, likewise has a decent Montreal result to his name. Copeland finished 11th at the race in 2022, albeit in the Super Sprint format.
Elsewhere, Luke Willian placed 18th at WTCS Cagliari in 2022.
As with the women’s team, there are several options for the selectors.
It will only take one big race. With one season-defining performance, any of the athletes named so far could meet the final standard for automatic nomination. The newly-married Birtwhistle has obviously proven his ability to do so but Copeland and Willian could make it happen on their day.
Should no one hit the selection requirement, discretionary considerations will apply. In descending order of importance, the selectors will consider results in Paris, Pontevedra and then other Olympic distance WTCS events. The relay will also be a factor.
Looking to the relay, Willian joined Hauser in the team that finished 2nd in Hamburg in 2022. At the same time, Birtwhistle has two relay appearances alongside Hauser, helping Australia to 6th in Leeds (2022) and Hamburg (2023).
When it comes down to it, any of Birtwhistle, Copeland or Willian could make the team. Given his prior WTCS record and experience, if it comes to a discretionary call Birtwhistle may have the upper hand.
