The American triathlon team finds itself in one of the more unusual positions on the international stage insofar that it could leave Paris this summer with medals in all three events or in none.
Whereas a couple of countries, such as France and Britain, feel like bankers to take at least one medal, America does not quite inspire the same base confidence. And yet it nonetheless feels eminently possible that they could medal in each event. Perhaps Germany is the only other team in the same boat.
One of the big drivers in this uncertainty around the American team is that it is so hard to predict who will even make the start line in Paris. There are a dazzling array of options, many of whom have WTCS medals, Olympic medals or world titles to their name. Equally, the American team has not been infallible over the last couple of years and so they enter 2024 as one of the great triathlon mysteries.
Who has been selected already?
Taylor Knibb wrapped up her second consecutive Olympic slot with minimal fuss as she placed 5th at the Paris Test Event. Up to two women could have been selected based on the results in Paris but with Knibb standing as the only top-8 finisher, she was the sole recipient of a slot.
Having won a WTCS medal in Yokohama last year, she will no doubt be a podium contender this summer. Her multiple WTCS medals and wins certainly speak for themselves in that respect.
None of the American women managed to book their slot at the second selection event at WTCS Pontevedra, leaving Knibb as the only nominated athlete for now.
The same story applies to the men’s side. Morgan Pearson frankly stunned everyone as he went from not making the Paris start list to finishing 6th and locking in his Olympic slot. Although no other man earned a slot in Paris or Pontevedra, Pearson brings plenty to the team by himself.
Even if patchy form prior to Paris had not inspired confidence, as another WTCS medallist, including memorably at the 2022 WTCS Final, it was never wise to count him out. If Pearson is at his best this year, though, he will, like Knibb, be among the strongest medal candidates.
Who could take the remaining slots?
Women
It is essentially guaranteed that the American women will secure three Olympic slots, leaving two spots to allocate. Any of half a dozen women hold legitimate ambitions of claiming the places and as such the composition of the team will be anyone’s guess.
The third and final selection race will take place at a WTCS Olympic distance event in May 2024. To earn selection, an athlete will need to finish on the podium.
Taylor Spivey and Summer Rappaport both claimed WTCS medals in 2023, while Katie Zaferes finished 5th at a WTCS race. Each will therefore feel confident of hitting the criteria. However, Zaferes faces a challenge to get onto the start lists given her current world ranking vis-à-vis her fellow Americans.
Gwen Jorgensen won four World Cups in 2023 but has not yet proven her WTCS form on her comeback. With another winter under her belt that could change. Kirsten Kaper also finished 6th in Cagliari and 8th in Yokohama last year, putting her in the mix. Throw in Erica Ackerlund and Gina Sereno and there are almost too many candidates to track.
Crucially, only one athlete can take a slot at the final selection race. That means that at least one slot will be reserved for a discretionary pick. On that front, expect a free for all.
Each candidate brings something slightly different to the table and no one has really made an indisputable case. As a double WTCS medallist last year, Spivey is the front-runner. She also impressed at the relay in Hamburg, dropping the fastest female leg of the World Championships.
Zaferes also proved herself in the relay at the Tokyo Olympics and could reunite with Knibb. On balance, she and Spivey feel like the likeliest picks but when it comes to the Americans recent history suggests that pretty much anything could happen.
Men
While the women will be certain of three slots, the men will realistically arrive in Paris with two slots. The same third selection race applies to the men although there is an important point to note. Aside from Pearson, no American man has medalled at a WTCS race since before 2020.
The expected outcome, then, is that the second slot will be determined using the discretionary criteria.
When it comes to the second slot, the battle boils down to a choice between Seth Rider or Matthew McElroy. Other options could prove themselves but Rider and McElroy have separated themselves. Both helped Team USA to 4th place at the Mixed Team Relay World Championships in Hamburg.
McElroy, though, will be confident of making a first Olympic appearance. As a WTCS medallist, he arguably has the higher ceiling while he is also the top ranked American man in the Olympic Qualification rankings.
In addition, his 8th place at WTCS Abu Dhabi last year was the best male Series result after Pearson’s 6th place in Paris.
Rider has been a stalwart for the team and played a big role in setting up the qualification of the relay. Pearson’s dramatic resurrection in Paris, though, seems to have turned the tide against him. Unless he can summon a big start to the season, it seems like he will be denied an Olympic berth.
