You don’t need to be a rocket scientist to understand how the qualification system in triathlon works for the Paris Olympic Games, although there are certainly aspects of physics that are clearer.
Broadly speaking, triathletes will qualify for the Games in two stages. Individual qualification, however, takes up the second wave. Instead, the Mixed Team Relay takes the first priority in determining quota places.
Only three countries have officially locked in slots at the Games at this point, several of the athletes that booked their places at the Test Event will therefore have to wait until they status is officially confirmed.
As hosts, France were allocated the first relay slot, giving them the right to send two men and two women to the Games.
Britain and Germany have secured the next two relay slots (earning two male and two female places each) courtesy of their performances at the 2022 and 2023 Mixed Team Relay World Championships. France won the race in 2022 while Britain were the next best non-qualified finishers. Germany won the event in 2023.
Three teams, then, have qualified for the Olympics.
The next six relays will be taken from the Mixed Team Relay Olympic rankings. Since May 2022, every country has been able to log up to five relay results from events such as the World Mixed Team Relay Championships, WTCS relay events or Continental Championships to count towards their ranking.
The six highest ranked non-qualified teams in the rankings will be invited to the Games. Following that, the final two relay slots will be determined at a qualification event in 2024.
Once the eleven relays are settled (deciding twenty-two male and female slots), the process then turns to individual qualification with the Olympic qualification rankings up next.
As a result, the relay is an integral part of securing Olympic places.
The final world-level relay event of 2023 will take place tomorrow in Paris to conclude the Test Event. For any countries that want to guarantee two men and two women qualify, this may be their final chance to do so.
Under the current rankings, France lie in 6th place. Britain are in 1st and Germany are in 2nd. As things stand, New Zealand (3rd), Switzerland (4th), USA (5th), Spain (7th), Norway (8th) and Australia (9th) would be the six teams to qualify.
New Zealand and Switzerland’s medal-winning performances at the World Championships in Hamburg have consolidated their places in top-4. The Hamburg race (and Montreal equivalent in 2022) was the most valuable race in the qualifying window at 1000 points for a win.
Australia are the only team of the six without full five race quota. France also only have four results but as they are already qualified their score is less pressing. Whatever the Australian team do in Paris (assuming they finish) will boost their ranking. Under that assumption, Australia should overtake Spain and Norway.
Looking further down the rankings, Italy, Portugal, Hungary, Denmark and Belgium follow and all are within 400 points of Norway and Spain. Of those countries, Italy (2410 points) are the closest to breaking into the six qualifying slots; they need to make up a little over 200 points.
Meanwhile, Portugal (2343 points) need to make up 275 points.
Those two countries realistically have the best chance of catching Spain (2617 points) or Norway (2612 points). The other chasers all have to close over 300 points, which is not impossible; it is just a bit less likely.
With America sitting over 500 points ahead of Spain, they are also essentially out of reach.
At the Paris Test Event, 800 points will be available (which is the same for a relay at a WTCS event). Italy’s best performance in the qualifying period was a 4th place in Leeds in 2022. That earned them 633 points from a maximum 800.
Portugal’s highest finish came recently in Sunderland where their 7th place earned them 501 points.
If Spain or Norway finish outside the top-10 in Paris and one of Italy or Portugal break into the top-5, it is possible that Spain or Norway could lose their current position of safety.
Finishing 11th would earn 367 points. If either Spain or Norway recorded that result, Italy would need to finish 5th (584 points) and Portugal would need 3rd (685 points) to overhaul them.
Should Spain or Norway finish lower than 11th, the challenge for Italy or Portugal will be a little lighter.
Seeing as Paris is the last scheduled world level Mixed Team Relay for 2023, time is running out for countries to improve their ranking. While the Test Event will be little more than a chance to test the course for six or seven countries, for several others it will go a long way to determining the fate of Olympic qualification.
