What does the data say about each athlete on the start line at WTCS Montreal?
To provide a little insight, we have prepared the below cheat sheets with all the key information you need for the men’s and women’s fields.
Note that, in contrast to the last cheat sheet for WTCS Cagliari, this time round the data shown applies for Sprint races in 2022 and 2023. In some cases, athletes have a preference for the shorter distance so it makes sense to highlight the most relevant data points.
For every athlete, you will find their average position out of the swim as well as their average time behind the leader. The same statistics are also available for the run, as is each athlete’s best WTCS Sprint distance run split since the start of 2022.
Women
Perhaps the key name to highlight in the women’s cheat sheet is Beth Potter. Across her three Sprint WTCS races in 2022 and 2023, she has been a fixture in the top-5. She is the only woman starting with a win over the distance in the Series in that time-frame too.
On average, she has been 13 seconds behind the fastest swimmer and 11 seconds behind the fastest runner. Together they add up to a perfect combination for an athlete looking to take the win. To be on the safe side, Potter would want to be withing 10 seconds of the swim leader in Montreal to ensure she can make any breakaway. Based on her recent displays over the Sprint distance she can be confident of making that happen.
There is, however, one woman with a faster 5km split in the period. Georgia Taylor-Brown, the winner of WTCS Cagliari, has a split 4 seconds faster than Potter’s best effort. Naturally, with different courses and different races dynamics at play the raw number is not overly significant. However, the proximity of the two suggest that, if they are with one another on the run, a close finish should be on the cards.
Interestingly, Potter has been closer to the swim leader and fastest run (in terms of time) than Taylor-Brown. Taylor-Brown, though, has been closer on average to the swim leader in terms of position.
Based on recent results, Taylor Spivey, Summer Rappaport, Sophie Coldwell and Vittoria Lopes should be at the head of the race. The German duo of Laura Lindemann and Lena Meißner should also be in contention out of the water.
Someone like Zsanett Bragmayer should also be in the mix given that she has averaged a deficit of only 12 seconds to the fastest swimmer.
When it comes to the run, though, the numbers say that the advantage should lie with Potter and Taylor-Brown.
Further down the start list, Katie Zaferes was a last minute addition. Her only race comes from her comeback in Abu Dhabi at the start of the year and that data already feels out of date. Based on her recent showings, look for Zaferes to out-perform her cheat sheet stats.
Men
In our race preview, we noted that the men’s event looked like a very open affair and the cheat sheet seems to bear that out.
A solitary individual has been within an average of 20 seconds behind both the fastest swimmer and fastest runner over the Sprint distance and that is the man wearing number one: Vasco Vilaca.
Vilaca has conceded only 16 seconds to the swim leader and 20 to the best runner. With a best finish of 2nd over the shorter race, he would be a logical favourite.
We noted that Matthew Hauser would be a close rival to Vilaca and his stats point out how closely matched the two are. In the water Hauser has lost only 9 seconds on average to the leader although in the run he has lost 36 seconds. However, Hauser’s run times are a little skewed by an off-day in Abu Dhabi. If he is on song in Montreal then he could earn a first win.
One interesting name to keep an eye on is Matthew McElroy. With a deficit of 30 seconds in the water and 26 seconds on the run, McElroy has been one of the best performers in terms of the amount of time lost and balance between the two disciplines. Having recorded a strong result in Abu Dhabi, he could go even better tomorrow.
Someone like Miguel Hidalgo could get a lot of joy out of the Montreal course. A brilliant swimmer, he also possesses the speed to put himself onto the podium in the run. At the same time, his compatriot Manoel Messias is another for the field to beware. Compared to Hidalgo, Hauser and Vilaca, Messias concedes more time in the swim (43 seconds on average, which is steep).
Nevertheless, given that the men’s fields have not really produced small breakaways this season, he has a good chance of bridging on the bike and then taking over on the run. With an average gap of 19 seconds to the fastest runner, Messias is on paper the best runner in the field (notwithstanding that his average is only 1 second clear of Vilaca).
With in-form athletes like David Castro Fajardo and Tyler Mislawchuk also racing, it will be hard to pick a winner. Going by the numbers (and their results in Abu Dhabi), Vilaca and Messias would appear to be good bets.
