You’ve seen it for WTCS Abu Dhabi and for WTCS Yokohama. Now get ready for the start list cheat sheets for WTCS Cagliari.
In a slight change from the previous cheat sheets, this time we can include data from the 2023 season. The information below therefore covers Olympic distance races from the 2022 season plus WTCS Yokohama 2023. As such, the data points exclusively focus on the relevant distance which is the event to be raced this weekend.
For cases in which an athlete did not race over the Olympic distance in the 2022 WTCS and did not race in Yokohama, their profile will not have any stats.
Below the women’s cheat sheet is listed first with the men’s cheat sheet after.
Elite Women
One thing that stands out is that Cassandre Beaugrand has only been 3 seconds behind the fastest swimmer across her 2022 Olympic distance races. When you also add in her average run position of 3.5 and the fact that she owns the fastest raw run split (that came at Cagliari last year), her chances look good.
While she logged a best Olympic distance WTCS finish of 8th last year, without Knibb, Coldwell and Duffy on bike the race seems ideal for her.
Similarly Summer Rappaport could make a move in Cagliari. Her swim has been even better than Beaugrand’s. Across four Olympic distance races, she has conceded only 2 seconds to the lead. Although her run has not been as good as Beaugrand’s, Rappaport is a previous WTCS medallist at the Olympic distance and so cannot be discounted.
When it comes to dark horses, take a look towards the end of the cheat sheet and you will see Barbara De Koning. The Dutch woman is still a very young athlete however managed to keep within 20 seconds of the best swimmer at her three Olympic distance races in the Series last year. With a slight improvement on that, she could be well placed.
Last year her run was not where it needed to be in the WTCS. However, after a string of four African Cup victories this year, De Koning has evidently improved over the winter and could surprise some people in Cagliari.
Elite Men
One race made quite the difference for Hayden Wilde’s stats.
Prior to WTCS Yokohama, he had lost on average 35 seconds to the fastest swimmer over 1500m. Following his fast swim earlier in the month, though, his average gap has dropped to 28 seconds. With momentum behind him, look for him to improve upon that further still.
In total fourteen men have had average swim times within 18 seconds of the fastest swimmer (which has generally been Márk Dévay). Based on that concentration of men close to the leader, it seems unlikely that any small group will escape in the water in Cagliari. It could happen, but it would likely need several men to have an off-day.
By contrast, only four men have averaged within 30 seconds of the fastest run split. They are Alex Yee (6 seconds behind on average), Hayden Wilde (21 seconds), Leo Bergere (26 seconds) and Jelle Geens (28 seconds).
Kristian Blummenfelt (40 seconds) and Manoel Messias (47 seconds) are also hovering within striking distance.
The run will therefore likely decide everything in the men’s race and, to that end, the current advantage lies with Yee.
