What can be expected at the Paris Olympic Test Event?
In the below cheat sheets, we look at the average performances of the athletes starting over the course of this year and last year to determine a base line for each. We look at the average time behind the fastest swimmer as well as the average position out of the water to give an indication of how close an athlete has been to making the front pack at recent races.
We then include the same information on the run. When it comes to the run, we also include the fastest run split of the past two seasons. Although courses vary so the raw times can be taken with a pinch of salt, the times nonetheless provide a rough indicator of what the various athletes can produce.
The purpose of the cheat sheets is to provide information that is relevant to the Test Event. To that end, the information below therefore covers Olympic distance races from the 2022 and 2023 WTCS seasons.
For cases in which an athlete did not race over the Olympic distance in the period, their profile will not have any stats. Note, Zsanett Bragmayer did race in the period however, as she has changed her name to Zsanett Zita Kuttor-Bragmayer, her data is being updated.
The women’s race will be on Thursday at 08:00 (CEST) while the men’s race will be on Friday at 08:00 (CEST).
Women
Although she has not raced this year, the threat Flora Duffy poses is undeniable. Across her three Olympic distance WTCS races in 2022, she lost an average of 1 second to both the fastest swimmer and the fastest runner.
She has been the best runner in terms of average position and average time behind the quickest athlete. Likewise, she has been the best swimmer in terms of time behind the quickest split and average position out of the water, although Summer Rappaport and Vittoria Lopes push her close. Duffy also has the second fastest raw run split of the field and is one of two athletes with an Olympic distance win in 2022 or 2023.
Looking at her data, then, it would be fair to make Duffy the favourite. The reality of her recent injury, though, means that we do not know if she will be in 2022 form or at a different level.
In total, there have been thirteen women that have averaged deficits of 15 seconds or less to the fastest swimmer. Any one of them could find themselves in the breakaway on a good day.
Equally, the averages overlook performances such as Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal’s swim in Yokohama. Even though she has averaged a deficit of 44 seconds to the fastest swimmer, she made the breakaway that day and ended up with the silver medal. Breakaway candidates could thus come from anywhere.
Behind Duffy, the three runners that stand out are Cassandre Beaugrand, Emma Lombardi and Nina Eim.
Beaugrand has logged the fastest run split at all four of her WTCS races this year. Lombardi and Eim have also impressed with their speed this season.
Lombardi has lost 45 seconds to the quickest runner on average, while Beaugrand and Eim have conceded 36 and 35 seconds, respectively. Both French athletes have also shown they possess the swim speed to get into the breakaway. Even if they don’t, though, they can run their way to a high finish.
If the Test Event comes down to a running race, Eim will be one to watch, assuming she has shaken off a foot niggle.
Men
In contrast to the women’s race, twenty men have averaged deficits of 15 seconds or less to the fastest swimmer in the men’s field. That greater concentration of athletes at the front of the race offers some explanation as to why there have been so few breakaways in the men’s race.
In another difference, none of the men starting have lost more than 55 seconds on average to the fastest swimmer. Among the women starting, several had lost over a minute on average. This speaks to the women’s field being more stretched out while the men’s has been more clustered.
With both Vincent Luis and Márk Dévay starting (both have averaged a deficit of 0 seconds to the best swimmer), chances are the swim will be one of the fastest of the year. Whether that will be enough to sustain a breakaway remains to be seen, although it did come together at WTCS Bermuda and WTCS Abu Dhabi last November.
Alex Yee has been the best runner, on average, over the past two seasons. He has lost only 5 seconds to the quickest runner and has the best average split position on the run. To cap it all off, he also possesses the quickest raw split (albeit on what appeared a short course in Cagliari).
Hayden Wilde will no doubt be a threat as the man with the next best running statistics. However, look out for Leo Bergere, Matthew Hauser and Jelle Geens.
All three have lost 28/29 seconds to the best runner on average and are fairly close to Wilde in terms of average running performance.
Most importantly, Bergere and Hauser have been better in the water than Yee and Wilde over the Olympic distance. If they can use that to their advantage, they have demonstrated the running speed to vie for the gold medal.
