Over the weekend, we discussed the importance of strategy and the ability to win WTCS races in multiple ways.
At this point in time, we concluded that there are three women and only one man in the current era of WTCS race winners that can be considered multi-strategy athletes, of which at least two (Flora Duffy and Vincent Luis) are close to the end of their careers.
During the post-Paris Olympic cycle, a new crop of athletes will come through. In this article, then, we will survey the group of female athletes that could make up the next generation of race winners and consider which of them could develop into not just gold medal contenders but also multi-strategy athletes.
As a very loose guide, we have used athletes in the 1998-2001 cohort as the basis for what could be the next generation. The athletes named here are already consistent performers in the WTCS and all were ranked inside the top-30 of this season’s Series. To go with that, several are already either WTCS medallists or World U23 champions. A group of World Cup winners are also included.
The athletes listed have therefore achieved plenty at a young age already and could continue to develop into world-beaters.
A disclaimer obviously has to be made insofar that nobody has a crystal ball to see the future. The achievements of the athletes below make them likely to become big names, but it is obviously not guaranteed. Equally, there could be a group of late-bloomers that come through and surpass those viewed right now as the next generation.
Moreover, it should be noted that the goal here is not to say who will be good or win world titles in a few years. Instead, the purpose is much narrower with the focus on identifying which athletes look like they could evolve into multi-strategy threats.
To start with, Taylor Knibb will be eliminated from consideration on the basis that they have already won multiple WTCS races and finished on the overall Series podium. Essentially, she has already arrived.
She was also discussed in the article on the strategies of the current women’s race winners with the conclusion being that, at this point in time, she is single strategy athlete. Being born in 1998, though, she could add further strings to her bow.
Then there is another athlete that could fall into this new generation – Bianca Seregni – however she has already been detailed in the discussion of the emerging swim-run approach. Although Seregni could be included in the next generation, to avoid repetition she will not be brought up again.
A good place to start is with Emma Lombardi. The World U23 champion in 2021, Lombardi has become a triple WTCS medallist already, winning medals in Cagliari in 2022 and 2023 as well as a medal in Sunderland this year.
Her performances put her on the overall Series podium in 2023 and she was the only woman born in the 21st century to make the top-20 in the Series.
To delve a little deeper into her races, Lombardi earned her World U23 title on the back of an exceptional breakaway. In Edmonton, she was the second fastest swimmer and then rode in a five woman group to stay clear.
Her WTCS medals have come in a similar manner. Her first silver in Cagliari came as part of an eleven woman front group while her silver at the 2023 iteration of the race was part of an even smaller breakaway.
She then added another silver in Sunderland in which she made the initial breakaway, although it was then caught and she medalled from the main pack.
Lombardi, then, has always been a strong swimmer and a very capable breakaway practitioner. At the same time, her running is also a real weapon. As a result, she could well develop into an athlete capable of winning in a breakaway, in a running race, or even using the swim-run approach.
It is a similar story with Lombardi’s successor as the World U23 champion. Kate Waugh won the title in 2022; like Lombardi, she did so in a breakaway. In Waugh’s case, though, she did not simply break away. She broke away from the breakaway.
The breakaway strategy also lay at the heart of Waugh’s initial WTCS success. In Yokohama this year, making the small front pack helped Waugh to a personal best finish. At the time, it therefore appeared clear what kind of athlete Waugh was trending to become.
However, her Yokohama performance was surpassed by a maiden WTCS medal in Pontevedra. Waugh’s showing in Pontevedra showed her clear running ability and hinted that she could develop into an athlete capable of winning races through a pure running strategy.
Lombardi and Waugh thus found themselves starting at similar points as talented breakaway exponents. Both, though, are capable of developing in a multi-strategy direction.
Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal is another athlete to have won a first WTCS medal in 2023; she did so by winning silver in Yokohama. Tapia was born in 1997 and so is a little outside the original range listed. However, the range does not have to be fixed, particularly given that Knibb should fall into the category but is a little more advanced in her career.
As a young WTCS medallist, Tapia thus warrants consideration.
In Yokohama, she claimed her medal after making the breakaway and then adding a super run split. Having already medalled in a breakaway, a case can naturally be made that Tapia can do so again. As she continues to grow in the sport, she could become a consistent breakaway practitioner.
At the same time, she run in Yokohama indicated that she could also have the potential to medal in a running race. Her 2023 World Cup medals also showed plenty of promise on the run.
Tapia has fewer data points than Lombardi and Waugh at the top level and it is never easy to forecast how athletes will progress. Given she has shown hints of being able to compete either in a breakaway or in a running race, perhaps she could also become a multi-strategy athlete.
Then we come to the rising group of German talent that are all born in 1998 or later. Lisa Tertsch, Lena Meißner and Annika Koch are all WTCS medallists while Nina Eim is also a World Cup winner.
Eim and Meißner are perhaps the easiest to forecast right now. Eim has a greater emphasis on her running speed at this stage in her career while Meißner is more of a breakaway athlete.
At several points in the 2023 WTCS season, Eim recorded some of the fastest splits at races. She impressed in Abu Dhabi, Cagliari and Yokohama early in the year and then used her run to earn an Olympic slot in Paris.
Meanwhile, Meißner won her maiden WTCS medal in Abu Dhabi in 2022 as part of a breakaway. She then followed that with another top-5 finish in Abu Dhabi in 2023 on the back of another breakaway.
Eim and Meißner thus have clear methods that they favour. While they are obviously young enough to add new strategies, they clearly have a natural approach that suits them at this stage in their careers.
Tertsch and Koch are a little trickier to figure out. Both are fabulous runners and won their WTCS medals in running races. However, Koch made the initial breakaway at WTCS Sunderland before winning the bronze medal. In addition, Koch also made the same breakaway as Waugh at the 2022 World U23 Championships, proving that she can race that way.
Likewise, Tertsch has shown some swimming speed before and has made it into some front groups at times. Tertch’s superb run at WTCS Pontevedra, which carried her to 4th place, lends weight to the idea that she is more of a running-based athlete right now.
Of the German quartet, though, Koch’s and Tertsch’s results indicate that they may be the likeliest to become multi-strategy athletes.
The final woman considered her is Cathia Schär. Had she opted for the WTCS Final this year instead of the World U23 Championships, it is completely feasible that Schär would have made the top-20 of the Series, joining Lombardi as the only other 21st century-born woman.
In a similar manner to Eim and Meißner, Schär has quite a clear method. As a powerful cyclist and fast runner, her profile follows the example of Jelle Geens and Mario Mola. Her swim is a little behind her other two impressive disciplines and it was telling that she won a medal at this year’s European Championships after it was made into a duathlon.
The current signs are therefore that Schär is more of a single strategy athlete, with an emphasis on using the bike to set up running races.
As one of the youngest women listed, Schär could have the greatest space to evolve. Even if her swim is not at the level of Lombardi or Meißner right now, for example, it could get there.
The same is true of all of the above athletes. Any of them could grow into multi-strategy athletes even if they aren’t there right now.
The example of the current WTCS race winners, though, indicates that being a multi-strategy athlete is rare. It is therefore also possible that none of the athletes become one and instead win races using one main method.
Over the next Olympic cycle and beyond, we will see how the next generation will develop. Among this group alone, there could be multiple future multi-strategy athletes and henceforth multiple future world champions.
