After a double home victory for New Zealand in New Plymouth, it is time to dig a little deeper into the race itself.
To start with, let’s look at the macro perspective of how the women’s and men’s races unfolded.
Race Developments
Nicole Van Der Kaay was never more than a few seconds behind the lead and once she assumed control of the race on the bike she did not relinquish it. Ainsley Thorpe was with her compatriot throughout. On the last lap of the run, though, she could not quite keep up the pace.
From behind, Solveig Løvseth had perhaps the most interesting development of the medallists as she recovered from a slightly slower swim to ride into the front pack. Like Thorpe, though, she could not match Van Der Kaay’s surge at the finish.
Hayden Wilde had a similar race to Løvseth as he recovered a deficit from the swim with a big first lap on the bike. Thereafter, he led for the rest of the race, making his graph look a lot like Van Der Kaay’s.
His dominance on the run is particularly noticeable given the gaps he created to the other medallists.
You can also see how Tayler Reid and Ricardo Batista were hardly separated after coming together on the bike. It would ultimately take a sprint finish to split them.
The above, then is how the overall races looked. Where exactly were the races won and lost? And what details can be found in a breakdown of each discipline?
The Swims
The women’s field was incredibly concentrated at the front. While Emma Jeffcoat led the swim, the distribution graph rapidly rises behind her, indicating a strong cluster of athletes close by.
The smoothness of the line (and absence of any small dips) shows a lack of major gaps in the field. Indeed, the women continued to emerge from the water at a fairly continuous rate until the bulk of the athletes emerged around 30-35 seconds behind.
Bronze medallist Solveig Løvseth was part of that peak as she lost precisely 30 seconds in the swim to Jeffcoat.
The fact that the graph drops off so suddenly after its peak highlights how much of the field exited either in the main concentration or before. A few stragglers continued to lose time, however the majority of the athletes were all within striking distance of the leader.
The men’s race is a similar story although with some minor differences.
The concentration of athletes peaked at around 45 seconds in the men’s field, a little further behind that the comparative peak in the women’s field. The men’s density had a similar drop off to the women’s after that peak exited.
The main difference came before the biggest group of athletes finished the swim.
Unlike the women’s field, the rise to the peak concentration in the men’s race was a little more gradual and actually experienced a slight drop after the 20 second mark.
This either suggests that the men’s leaders swam a little faster or that those further behind failed to keep up as well.
Tellingly, no one that exited after the 25 second mark lull would go on to make the front pack. Hayden Wilde was actually one of the last men to make the front group after he exited the swim exactly 20 seconds behind the leaders.
As a result, the swim can be seen as quite important in determining the outcome of the men’s race.
The Bikes
Claire Michel was the quickest athlete on the first lap of the bike in the women’s race. With Beatrice Mallozzi and Costanza Arpinelli for company, she put in a big effort to bridge to the lead group.
Notably, Gwen Jorgensen also had a great first lap. However, a couple of valuable seconds lost in T1 proved the difference between being able to latch onto the front group and not.
For the first two laps, Jorgensen managed to match the front group’s efforts from her pack. By the third lap, though, the effort clearly told as her group began to cede time.
By contrast, on the third lap, Michel and Van Der Kaay put together some of the fastest laps of the race in the front pack.
Meanwhile, Sandra Dodet was stranded in the third pack. Although she had been expected to challenge for the medals, she may have lacked some race sharpness. At no point did her group really make a dent on those at the front. Moreover, they only gained time on the Jorgensen group on one lap (the third one).
In addition, the above bubble plot shows how the women’s packs evolved over each lap. A large front group formed at the end of the first lap. However the intensity of Van Der Kaay and Michel ensured that athletes dropped off every lap.
Nor was it just the lead pack that lost members. You can see how the second women’s pack thinned across the course.
There are three main takeaways from the men’s bike splits.
The first is that David Castro Fajardo was completely thwarted by his mechanical. After losing time on the second lap, there was no recovering without a group with which to ride.
The second takeaway is that the first lap was again incredibly important. Hayden Wilde had the best first lap of the race and was able to catch faster swimmers like Reid and Azzano.
Meanwhile, Callum Mcclusky had a good first lap but not a great one. Although he got faster as the bike went on, not having that speed straight away out of T1 was a problem. Riding 20 seconds slower than the leaders on that lap is ultimately what cost him; given how fast his run was, it probably cost him a medal.
The third takeaway is that while the front group was seriously fast on every lap, Wilde punished them on the second lap and his big turn caused Azzano to drop away during the third lap.
The impact of the second lap is reiterated in the above bubble plot. Whereas the chase was fairly close to the lead group after lap 1, after lap 2 the leaders had dropped Azzano and added 30 seconds to their lead over the main chase.
The lead would grow a little more on laps 3 and 4, however the bulk of the damage was done on lap 2.
The Runs
Nicole Van Der Kaay was one of the best runners on every lap. Her dominance was most pronounced on the final lap.
Funnily enough, Jorgensen was the only athlete able to get close to Van Der Kaay’s speed on the final lap. On another day, with a better T1 and first bike lap, she could have contended for a medal. Realistically she would not have been able to beat Van Der Kaay this time round; still, her runs laps were promisingly close.
Furthermore Jorgensen’s laps were among the most consistent of any athlete. Whereas Arpinelli and Anahi Alvarez Corral went out a little too fast and paid for it, Jorgensen’s laps were almost identical.
The men’s run laps really demonstrate how Hayden Wilde slowed up towards the end to milk his finish.
Depending on your interpretation, bronze medallist Ricardo Batista either lost key time on the second lap or tactically slowed to conserve energy for the finish. Either way, compared to some of the times of the other athletes, it appears he could have been a little more aggressive on the second lap.
Both Mcclusky and Rodrigo Gonzalez were consistent across the three laps. After Wilde slowed to celebrate, they were actually the two fastest men on the final lap of the run.
With a slightly faster swim and better first lap of the bike, both Mcclusky and Gonzalez could have taken medals in the first World Cup of the year.
