In contrast to the European women’s New Flag race, the contest to earn the female Asian New Flag is not a particularly open affair.
This is largely due to the fact that the athlete leading the way, Ekaterina Shabalina, is the highest ranked woman of any female athlete in contention for one of the five New Flags.
Following her recent win at the Asian Sprint Championships, Shabalina sits in 50th in the world rankings with 2027 points (rounded) to her name. In addition to her Asian title to Saudi Arabia, Shabalina won the European Cup in Wels and the Asia Cup in Cholpon-Ata.
With three wins in 2023, she thus finds herself in a commanding position with regards to Olympic qualification.
It is also entirely possible that Kazakhstan will earn both of the Asian New Flag places. While Shabalina is in a comfortable positionin the women’s race, Ayan Beisenbayev is locked in a tight battle with Jason Tai Long Ng in the men’s race.
Right now, the advantage lays with Ng but the difference between the two is minimal.
However, just as an athlete from Hong Kong (Ng) may spoil Kazakhstan’s hopes in the men’s competition, the same could transpire in the women’s.
Bailee Brown of Hong Kong is the closest challenger to Shabalina. With 1644 points, she recently climbed 8 places in the world rankings to 73rd. On paper, a near-400 point deficit represents quite a hurdle. However, Brown’s recent form has been very promising.
A bronze medal at the Asia Cup in Hong Kong over the weekend added to some useful points while she also finished 3rd in Saudi Arabia at the Asian Sprint Championships. Furthermore, Brown finished 12th at the Weihai World Cup which is the best finish either she or Shabalina logged in 2023.
At the same time, Shabalina also beat Brown at the Asian Games, which has further aided her lead.
Brown will be moving up from the U23 ranks at the end of this year. As such, she is still young enough to make rapid improvements. To catch Shabalina, though, she will need a stellar run of results in early 2024.
The final women from Asia eligible for a New Flag are Chi Wen Chang of Chinese Taipei and Alina Khakimova of Uzbekistan. Chang is ranked 135th in the world with 991 points. Khakimova has 856 points and sits in 160th.
With over 1000 points to make up to Shabalina, their prospects of earning the New Flag currently look somewhat slim. Nevertheless, they cannot be discounted and a couple of big results could turn the tide in their favour.
When 2024 arrives, Shabalina will in all likelihood remain the runaway favourite. At every step, though, Brown can be expected to push her all the way to the end of the qualification window.
