Yesterday we kicked off a series of articles investigating the state of play in the New Flag races to the 2024 Olympic Games, starting with the European men.
As a reminder, a New Flag place at the Games is awarded to one man and one woman for each of the five continental associations. The recipient must be the highest ranked athlete from their continent and race for a country that has not already qualified an athlete of the same gender to Paris.
In addition, an athlete needs to be in the top-180 of the world rankings to be eligible for a New Flag slot.
Having looked at the European men’s New Flag slot, today we are shifting across to the Asian men’s New Flag place. One key point to note is that the world rankings could still evolve in the next few weeks. After all, races like the Hong Kong Asia Cup are still to take place which could be particularly relevant for athletes based in Asia.
By contrast, with no WTCS or World Cup races until February at the earliest, the Olympic rankings are locked into place for now.
As things stand, Jason Tai Long Ng of Hong Kong is pole position to take the male New Flag slot for Asia. Ng is ranked 51st in the world with 1899 points (rounded to the nearest integer) to his name.
Strong performances at the Asian Championships have helped to propel Ng through the rankings. A recent silver medal at the Asian Sprint Championships earned a bumper haul of over 360 points while a 5th place at the Asian Games likewise gave him a boost. Furthermore, Ng finished 7th at the Weihai World Cup in August, his best ever result at that level.
His form in the second half of 2023 has thus gone a long way in securing his current position.
However, Ng cannot afford to rest on his laurels. Right behind him in 56th place is Ayan Beisenbayev. The athlete from Kazakhstan has 1862 points and so is separated by the slimmest of margins from Ng.
A win at the Asian Sprint Championships and a bronze medal at the Asian Games gave Beisenbayev’s ranking an even bigger lift than that which Ng received.
Wins at the Asia Cup in Samarkand and the African Cup in Maselspoort, plus a bronze medal at the Asia Cup in Sejong, have put Beisenbayev as close as can be to Ng.
The race between the two will likely be touch and go until the very last day of the qualifying period. Both currently have two races in their “current” period scores that will move into the “previous” period before the end of the window.
At the same time, Beisenbayev has more scores in his current period that are not worth enough to be in his “current” scores but will become “previous” results before the end of May. For example, he finished 4th at the African Cups in Swakopmund and Troutbeck in March and April 2023.
While neither the Swakopmund or Troutbeck results are in his top-6 results right now, by April next year they will likely be among his top-6 “previous” scores, in essence giving him extra points. This is because they will replace two “previous” European Cup results from April 2022 in which he finished 20th and 22nd.
All things being equal then, while Ng is ahead today, Beisenbayev should reclaim the lead in mid-April should either fail to add any new scores.
As an aside, if Kazakhstan was a part of the European Triathlon Union, Beisenbayev would be in line to receive the European New Flag place instead of being locked in a battle with Ng for the Asian slot.
The next man in line for a New Flag slot for Asia is Junjie Fan of China in 117th place. With 1179 points, he has quite a way to go to catch Ng and Beisenbayev.
Similarly, Aleksandr Kurishov of Uzbekistan is in with a faint chance. Kurishov has 1132 points and is ranked 125th in the world.
As both Fan and Kurishov have over 700 points to close (and Beisenbayev’s win at the Asian Sprint Championships was worth 409 points), it feels a little unlikely that they will be able to make up the ground. It is by no means impossible. Given the form of the athletes involved, though, it feels safer to project Ng and Beisenbayev achieving better results in the next few months than Fan and Kurishov.
Overall, then, the Asian male New Flag contest is now on balance a two-man race. With Ng and Beisenbayev so closely matched, it could prove to be the most exciting of any of the New Flags.
