There is a clear front-runner in the race to claim the Americas male New Flag Olympic slot. In contrast to the Asian race, in which Jason Tai Long Ng and Ayan Beisenbayev are a hair-width apart in the world rankings, Matthew Wright has a considerable margin in the Americas contest.
With a buffer of almost 500 points, Wright will head into 2024 as the prohibitive favourite to claim the New Flag place.
As a reminder, a New Flag place at the Games is awarded to one man and one woman for each of the five continental associations. The recipient must be the highest ranked athlete from their continent and race for a country that has not already qualified an athlete of the same gender to Paris.
In addition, an athlete needs to be in the top-180 of the world rankings to be eligible for a New Flag slot.
Currently, Wright is ranked 52nd in the world. Due to the vagaries of the ranking system, he actually gained a place over the weekend without even racing.
With 1888 points (rounded to the nearest integer), the athlete from Barbados actually has the second best ranking of any man across the five New Flag races. After finishing 2nd at the Hong Kong Asia Cup at the weekend, Ng has boosted his total to 1948 points and is the only New Flag contender to stand inside the top-50 of the men’s world rankings.
For Wright, winning races has been central to building his comfortable position. He recently won the Americas Cup in Vina del Mar while earlier in the season he also won the African Cup in Sharm El Sheikh.
His most impressive performance, though, was his victory at the Americas Sprint Championships. Alongside being a fantastic performance, Wright’s win in Santa Marta has had huge implications for the New Flag race.
The 439 points he earned for his win represent a near-insurmountable total. The only possible events left in the Olympic qualification window at which a rival can out-score that result will be in the WTCS or at Olympic distance World Cup races. As things stand, there are only two Olympic distance World Cups slated to take place before the end of May 2024.
Moreover, neither Wright nor his rivals are currently regulars in the WTCS. As such, it will be extremely difficult for anyone to surpass his Americas Sprint title score.
His win in Santa Marta also came at the perfect time. Being in September, the timing of the event will ensure his score remains in the “current” until the end of the qualifying window.
With regards to the current and previous periods, it should be noted that three of Wright’s scores will shift from current to previous before the end of May. In addition to his Sharm El Sheikh win, his bronze medals at the African Cups in M’Diq and Swakopmund will move to the previous period and be worth only a third of their current value.
On the one hand, this will give him a net gain with respect to his previous points. On the other hand, it will mark a greater net loss in his current period. As things stand, Wright has two European Cup results worth fewer points that could cover two of the African Cup results.
In early 2024, then, he will need a couple of good Continental Cup results to maintain his position. However, it is clear that Wright is in an enviable position when it comes to New Flag qualification.
Behind Wright, three men from Ecuador lead the charge for the Americas New Flag slot.
Ramón Armando Matute is ranked 90th in the world with 1409 points. Wins at the Americas Cups in Salinas and Lima have helped him a lot, as has a bronze medal at the Americas Cup in La Guaira. With a gap of 479 points to close to Wright, though, he has a big challenge on his hands.
Moreover, three of Matute’s six current scores will be moved to the previous period by the end of February 2024 and thus will be worth only a third of their points. He will therefore need a couple of big results in 2024 to shore up his position and close in on Wright.
Gabriel Terán Carvajal sits 10 places back in 100th with 1348 points. Although he won medals at the Americas Cup in Manta in both 2022 and 2023, Terán will lose the 2022 result to his previous period in the near future. He is therefore in a similar boat to Matute.
Juan Jose Andrade Figueroa won in Manta in 2022 and is ranked 107th in the world with 1300 points. With a good run of results, he could conceivably overtake Matute and Terán. To do so, though, he will likely need to beat them in a head-to-head showdown given the limited time before Olympic qualification ends.
Tyler Smith of Bermuda occupies 120th in the world rankings with 1176 points. He finished 5th and 9th at the Americas Sprint and Olympic Championships, respectively, and also logged top-5 finishes at the African Cups in Nelson Mandela Bay and Maselspoort. Right now, though, Wright has too much of a gap and Smith will need some big World Cup results.
Similarly, Carlos Javier Quinchara Forero of Colombia has 1095 points and is ranked 137th. With almost 800 points to close, he is realistically out of range when it comes to catching Wright.
It is not impossible and anything could happen in 2024. Nevertheless, based on the existing status quo, Wright certainly has the upper hand in the Americas New Flag race.
