Earlier this week, we highlighted six younger athletes to keep an eye out for in 2023. Maybe those predictions will prove correct, maybe they won’t, such is the nature of making predictions.
That got us thinking: what predictions could we make that would almost certainly be wrong, yet would not be impossible? When they ultimately do not transpire, everyone knew they were unlikely in the first place. At the same time, though, they have the tiniest, almost invisible, probability of coming true.
As a result, these are our improbable predictions for 2023.
Alex Yee will skip the WTCS Final to prepare for Strictly Come Dancing
After narrowly being pipped to the 2022 WTCS title, we expect that Alex Yee will return in 2023 with a vengeance. After winning three races in 2022, he established himself as one of the best runners in the sport and someone that is incredibly tough to beat on his day. Throw in his Olympic silver medal from the Tokyo Games and he truly stands out amongst the field.
Heading into the WTCS Final in Pontevedra, we are fairly sure he will be in contention for another world title. However, the improbable prediction says that he will skip Pontevedra in order to prepare for his appearance on the BBC dancing show, Strictly Come Dancing.
It is not unprecedented for an active elite athlete to participate in Strictly. The double Olympic champion swimmer Adam Peaty, for example, took part in Strictly in 2021 after the Tokyo Olympics and returned to elite swimming competition in 2022.
Appearing on Strictly is a fairly lucrative spot and can make a person’s name well-known among the mainstream media. In the run-up to the Paris Olympics, it may be the best way to catapult Yee into the broader public consciousness and expand his marketability. In doing so, he may enter 2024 with a wealth of new sponsors and supporters.
Would Yee really bail on Pontevedra for Strictly? (This was rhetorical, he realistically won’t). However, if injuries derail his world title bid Pontevedra might not be the all-important race for him as it could have been. Great Britain will almost certainly have qualified a mixed team relay for Paris by then and Yee will have locked in his Olympic slot. Maybe Strictly could be the perfect piece of the puzzle to refresh him in the final run to Paris.
After all, dancing might just be under-utilised cross training and perfect for improving one’s aerobic base.
Taylor Knibb will be dropped on the bike at WTCS Yokohama
Since a brilliant breakaway with Flora Duffy at WTCS Edmonton in 2017 helped Taylor Knibb become the youngest woman ever to podium in the Series, her skill on the bike as been something to behold. At WTCS Edmonton 2021, she rode away from the entire field to take on the bike solo and storm to victory. In 2022, she proved at three straight races that she is perhaps the best cyclist in the field.
At WTCS Cagliari, it was the pressure applied by Knibb that broke up the field. At WTCS Bermuda, she rode solo for much of the bike and almost bridged to the lead duo of Duffy and Maya Kingma. Finally, at WTCS Abu Dhabi, she was a crucial component of the six woman breakaway on the bike.
Throw in her 2022 World 70.3 Championship win, in which she produced a blazing bike split, and her credentials on the bike are indisputable.
It is for that reason we have made her being dropped on the bike at the first Olympic distance race of 2023 our next improbable prediction. Yokohama has one of the flattest courses on the WTCS circuit and it would be a huge shock if Knibb was to be dropped, particularly if she were dropped by the lead or main packs.
It is a highly unlikely outcome. Sickness could derail her, as could an issue with her bike. Another option is that the field simply drop her (that sounds a little silly when you say it out loud). It probably won’t happen, but if it did it does it might just be the biggest shock of the early season.
Jelle Geens will win WTCS Abu Dhabi and instantly retire to teach yoga
Abu Dhabi has been a happy hunting ground for Jelle Geens. At the recent WTCS Final in 2022, he won the bronze medal over the Olympic distance. In November 2021, he was even better and took gold over the Sprint distance.
With the first race of the 2023 WTCS being a Sprint in Abu Dhabi, he will likely be licking his lips at the opportunity.
His other WTCS win, in Montreal in 2019, also came over the Sprint distance. A key factor that may help him is that Abu Dhabi 2023 comes so soon after Abu Dhabi 2022. Some athletes have noted how short the turnover between races is and that the field could be a little rusty coming off a shortened off-season. If Geens gets his winter right, he could profit from this. As one of the best runners in the field, on paper he will be well-positioned to exploit his window of opportunity.
Should he win, which is completely possible, the second part of the prediction will kick in. Geens will retire to become a yoga instructor.
As background, his partner of three years is a yoga and Pilates instructor. If Geens were to transition his career and re-train in yoga, they could create a commercially strong yoga brand. Life as an elite sportsperson does not last forever but business (and yoga) can.
Geens is turning 30 this year and is in his prime and retiring instantly after winning the first race of the season would be a little odd. Sometimes, though, life moves in mysterious ways.
The French team will skip the Paris Olympic Test Event
Would any country ever really skip their own Olympic Test Event?
It is a perfect opportunity to fine tune preparations for the Olympic Games and to learn everything there is to know about the course and the relative strengths of the athletes on said course. As a dry-run for the home athletes, it may be invaluable in giving them experience to fall back upon once the pressure of a home audience ramps up next year.
Surely no country would voluntarily pass such an opportunity up.
As the host country is France, though, we have a host of lazy stereotypes that we can employ.
Perhaps the likeliest reason/stereotype for the French team skipping the Test Event would be because the team have gone on strike. Yes, its a cliche, however French striking culture is practically unparalleled. As a short introduction into France’s striking habits, the European Trade Union Institute puts France’s strikes at consistently near the highest in Europe. SNCF railways (the main French train line) says France has had a rail strike every year from 1947 to 2019. Moreover, the International Labour Organization put France second behind only Argentina of 23 countries when it counted “days not worked per 1,000 workers due to strikes and lockouts”.
As much as it is a stereotype, the French triathlon team could go on strike.
The may be one other reason the French team elects to skip the Test Event: to avoid giving away any inside knowledge. The French team will know virtually every detail of the course prior to the Games anyway, what need will there be of showing their hand a year early? The crowds at the Test Event will be nothing like the real thing and so will likely not provide experience of the pressure as much as it could. If France are shaping up for a home win, keeping their plans and athletes under wraps might just be a smart strategic move.
Ai Ueda will medal at WTCS Yokohama (please, this would be amazing)
Ai Ueda has had a storied triathlon career and this year will be turning 40.
WTCS Yokohama has been home to her best ever WTCS performances, including a silver in 2014 and a bronze in 2016, representing her only WTCS medals. With Yokohama on the calendar again this year, we are hoping for a final hurrah for Ueda on the course. She has medalled their before and she will have home crowds cheering her on; it could happen.
The reason this is a little improbable though is that Ueda hasn’t raced WTCS since Hamburg 2021. Instead, in 2022, she focused on long distance triathlon. Moreover, given her age, there is every likelihood that the peak of her powers has passed by and the podium will be just out of reach.
There are reasons to say it is improbable. However, it would make for an amazing story. At 39, Ueda would become the oldest WTCS medallist ever and it would be a fitting way to end a long and accomplished career.
Hayden Wilde will miss the New Plymouth World Cup due to oversleeping
Hayden Wilde is a great racer and will be a contender for the WTCS crown in 2023. In a recent interview, he confirmed that one of his early season races will be the New Plymouth World Cup so that he can race in front of a home New Zealand crowd. On paper, it will be a perfect chance for him to showcase his talents in front of rapturous support.
The improbable prediction, then, is that he will follow through with his plan however he will miss the race due to oversleeping.
Having spent his winter in Europe, Wilde’s body clock may not be fully attuned to the time zone once he returns to New Zealand. His time-keeping has also historically been somewhat lax and almost made him miss the start of a PTO race in 2022.
The combination of time zones and time keeping make for a dangerous one. In New Plymouth, the greatest threat to Hayden Wilde might just be Hayden Wilde.
Cassandre Beaugrand will make an appearance in season 4 of Emily in Paris
Did anyone else binge season 3 of Emily in Paris?
Anyway, with season 4 due to return in a similar Christmas slot in 2023, it brings us to our next improbable prediction for the year. Just as Alex Yee could make a jump into mainstream media via Strictly Come Dancing, so too could Cassandre Beaugrand.
Ahead of a home Olympics in 2024, Emily in Paris could be the perfect platform to launch Beaugrand’s profile to the next level. Emily in Paris has proven to be one of Netflix’s big hits in the past couple of years. With its setting in Paris, it could be ripe for a French triathlete to enter and exploit the commercial opportunity.
Why its improbable… to be honest the reasons it is improbable perhaps don’t need to be listed. How many people are plucked to be a part of a top-10 Netflix show with over 100 million hours of viewership? On that note, we’ll see ourselves out.
Let us know in the comments if you have any improbable predictions for 2023.
