On a course as tough as Karlovy Vary, it should come as no surprise that the World Cup has attracted a field containing most of the best female cyclists in the sport. Notwithstanding a few notable absences, such as Taylor Knibb, there are plenty of women starting that can summon serious power on two wheels.
Among the leading contenders for the win will be Julie Derron.
The Swiss athlete is in top form having recorded a personal best WTCS finish in Sunderland and then claimed 8th place at the Paris Test Event. At the past weekend, she also won a 70.3 race on a tough course.
A former World Cup winner, Derron will in all likelihood eat up the course in Karlovy Vary.
Similarly, her compatriot Cathia Schär will be a threat. Schär has enjoyed a sensational summer. Her run of form kicked off with a bronze medal at the European Championships in Madrid and she has not looked back. Like Derron, she has recorded a WTCS personal best finish and is dangerous on the bike and run.
Right now, Schär’s swim is not as strong as her other two disciplines so her fortunes could depend on how the race unfolds.
One athlete that will look to exploit the swim is Bianca Seregni. The Italian athlete is coming off a win at the Weihai World Cup and has proven herself in Karlovy Vary having won a medal there in 2022.
She is realistically the best swimmer in the field and could use the same strategy as last year in which she forced a small pack to escape. The risk is that she does not get the right pack to stay clear this time round. If she does force the issue, though, she could easily end up on the podium.
The reason why Seregni and others would try to break away is clear. Gwen Jorgensen will be racing on the back of an impressive win at the Valencia World Cup. In Valencia, the former Olympic champion was dominant on the run and a repeat of her performance could land her another gold.
Jorgensen also swam well in Valencia. As much as Seregni will try to attack on the swim and the Swiss duo will push on the bike, Jorgensen could deal with all comers. Indeed, Valencia showed that the field will have to try to drop her on bike or at least make life as difficult as possible.
This year, Jorgensen has not raced many hard courses. The only real insight on that front is the New Plymouth World Cup, where she finished 14th, but that was so early in her comeback it may not be relevant now.
As a result there could be a slight question mark over Jorgensen on a tougher course. Moreover, she may struggle to back up her Valencia performance as recovery comes into play. This feels a little like clutching at straws though.
Another athlete that will thrive on the course is Marlene Gomez-Göggel. The German athlete claimed the bronze medal in Valencia and has historically fared well at tough venues. She previously won the World Cup in Arzachena on one of the most brutal circuits on the calendar.
Gomez-Göggel’s teammate, Tanja Neubert, should also feature. A wonderful cyclist, Neubert has come on leaps and bounds this year.
In addition, Solveig Løvseth will be a threat, The European Games champion medalled in New Plymouth and is probably the best cyclist in the field. Her vulnerability is the swim, yet if she ends up in a pack with someone like Schär, she could do a lot of damage.
Finally, Margareta Bicanova could be a dark horse. She was very strong on the bike at Bundesliga Schliersee, which was possibly the hardest course of the year, and ended up taking 5th place.
With so many strong cyclists, the race could head in a number of directions. On balance, the big hitters like Derron, Jorgensen and Løvseth will likely win or lose the race in the swim and a Seregni-driven breakaway could set up the podium.
TriStats Predictions
- Julie Derron
- Gwen Jorgensen
- Bianca Seregni
- Cathia Schär
- Solveig Løvseth
