Since the start of 2022, Alex Yee’s record in the WTCS reads: seven finishes, five wins, one bronze medal and a 5th place. Two of those wins have come from his two appearances in this year’s Series and he will arrive in Hamburg as the only unbeaten athlete in the Series.
However, the term “unbeaten” comes with an asterisk.
At the French Grand Prix in Metz, Yee suffered a defeat to Matthew Hauser. The Australian escaped after a fast swim and then kept clear of Yee’s chase pack on the bike. To cap off his day, he even out-split the Brit over the 5km run.
As such, Yee will arrive in Hamburg potentially a little more vincible than he looked before.
Being the two other race winners in the WTCS this season, Hauser and Hayden Wilde stand out as the obvious challengers to Yee.
Hauser took his maiden win in Montreal a week prior to Metz. Meanwhile, Wilde won in Yokohama. In addition, at last year’s race in Hamburg, Wilde took the gold while Hauser came away with the silver medal. Recent history may therefore tilt in their favour.
When it comes to history, though, Yee has a win at last year’s WTCS Montreal to call upon. That came over the same configuration as the looming WTCS Hamburg: a semi-final and final over the Super Sprint distance. He has therefore succeeded over the format before and could do so again.
Moreover Hauser will have less room to force a breakaway as he did in Metz. A fresher Yee could also get the better of him on the run.
At the same time, the Super Sprint distance could play into Wilde’s hands. The New Zealander pushed Yee all the way at WTCS Cagliari until he cracked at the last. As good as Wilde is over 10km, the shorter running distances seem to be a little more up his street. The difference is marginal but at the top level it could prove consequential. In a shoot-out over 1.75km, he has the speed to beat Yee.
One only has to look to Wilde’s dominant run on his way to victory at the New Plymouth World Cup earlier in the year for proof that his short distance speed will be incredibly difficult to beat.
As a result, there are reasons to think that Yee could win a third race of 2023 as much as there are reasons to think he will be the most vulnerable he has been all year.
The challenges also extend beyond Wilde and Hauser.
Vasco Vilaca, the current Series leader, will be a threat. In a breakthrough season, he earned a silver medal in Abu Dhabi and a bronze in Yokohama. A late crash in Montreal ended his day prematurely after setting himself up to take a shot at the gold.
Alongside Hauser, Manoel Messias was a beneficiary of Vilaca’s crash. He therefore followed his bronze from Abu Dhabi with a silver medal in Montreal. As one of the weaker swimmers of the favourites, Messias will likely benefit from the Super Sprint format. Armed with a fantastic burst of speed on the run, he could give anyone a scare at the finish.
Two former Hamburg medallists will also be in contention.
Jawad Abdelmoula won a bronze medal at the event last year while Tim Hellwig won the whole thing in 2021. Of the two, Hellwig is in the better form. He finished 4th in Montreal and claimed the silver medal at the German Championships after a penalty cost him a chance at the win. The man that beat Hellwig in Düsseldorf, Lasse Nygaard Priester, could also be a factor.
David Castro Fajardo and Csongor Lehmann are also coming off recent World Cup wins in Huatulco and Tiszaujvaros. Both are well-rounded talents and could upset the apple cart.
A lot of men, then, could trouble Yee. On balance, though, it still feels like he should be capable of seeing them off. It will be tight, but Yee’s WTCS form makes him the favourite.
TriStats Predictions
- Alex Yee
- Hayden Wilde
- Matthew Hauser
- Vasco Vilaca
- Manoel Messias
