With Series leader Sophie Coldwell absent, the women’s WTCS is primed to take a new turn in Cagliari. After her exploits at WTCS Abu Dhabi, Beth Potter is back on the start line and will be firmly among the favourites.
At the season opener, Potter was in supreme form. She made the front pack out of the water, produced a powerful showing on the bike and then capped her day with a blistering run split.
After three WTCS medals in 2022, she has really come into her own at the highest level. Her swim has frequently put her in and around the front pack of late while her run remains one of the strongest in the field. With every passing race it seems any potential weaknesses are dwindling.
One of Potter’s closest rivals for the gold will be her compatriot, Georgia Taylor-Brown.
Taylor-Brown missed the front pack out of the water again in Yokohama. Although she rode and ran well, it did not ultimately help a great deal. The lesson on display at both Abu Dhabi and Yokohama has been the importance of making the front group out of the water in the women’s race.
Going by her form in the 2022 season, it would be fair to say that Taylor-Brown should be back in the front pack in Cagliari. However, both of her 2023 races paint a different picture and recent form is starting to count for more than last year’s results.
A fast swim can be expected once more in the women’s race and Taylor-Brown might not make the front group.
Similarly the French trio of Cassandre Beaugrand, Emma Lombardi and Leonie Periault may be vulnerable. They are three of the best runners in the field so should be able to contend for medals. Moreover Beaugrand and Lombardi are great swimmers in the pool so it is curious that they have not been in the front pack since WTCS Cagliari in October.
With the current dynamic of the women’s Series, though, the swim is pivotal.
At the same time, Beaugrand showed some great form at the European Cup in Quarteira. Her win there was the first of her career over the Olympic distance. In addition, after ripping a 32:15 10km at WTCS Cagliari last year, Beaugrand should be towards the top of the field by the finish line regardless of what happens on the bike. Yet the swim will determine whether she goes for the win or the top-5.
So, the crucial question therefore revolves around who can make it into the front pack and win the race from there.
Taylor Knibb would have been an obvious candidate. She has regularly been a front pack swimmer, including most recently at WTCS Yokohama. She also detonated the race last year and dropped Beaugrand on the bike. However, in a late change Knibb has pulled out of the race.
Then there is Maya Kingma. She led out the swim in Yokohama and is known for her power on the bike. In an ideal scenario, Kingma would be able to force a breakaway in the opening lap to keep any lead group compact. Without Knibb or Coldwell, though, she may find it a little tougher to make a breakaway stick.
Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal also cannot be ignored after her silver in Yokohama. She has proven herself as a medallist now; the challenge will be to repeat her feat. At this stage, she needs to back up her outstanding race in Japan before we start predicting it on a regular basis. Yet she has every chance of winning another medal.
Taylor Spivey will be wearing number 1 and has had a very good start to the season. She has finishes of 3rd and 4th to her name and will be up with the leaders. Notably, she has made the breakaway at both races this season. Seeing as she also out-ran Kingma in Yokohama, she should contend for a medal if any breakaway materialises.
Annika Koch is an interesting one. She has been stuck behind the plethora of talented, highly ranked German women. While her swim can be a bit hit-or-miss, her cycling is excellent, as is her running. At Bundesliga Kraichgau at the weekend, she showed her strength in all three disciplines. Should she get her swim to fire, she could make the jump from the WTCS wait list to WTCS medallist.
A clutch of fast runners like Jeanne Lehair, Nina Eim and Tilda Månsson will look to move up through the field but at this point are unlikely to make the front pack. If a breakaway does not transpire, however, they could be outside shots.
TriStats Predictions
Without Coldwell and Knibb, it is a little harder to forecast a breakaway. Given recent history, though, it seems like that is nonetheless the most likely outcome.
Overall, it is impossible to look past Beth Potter. Now capable of swimming in the front pack and riding in breakaways, she also remains one of the best runners in the sport. On current form, she is perhaps the only athlete able to win irrespective of the style of the race.
- Beth Potter
- Taylor Spivey
- Maya Kingma
- Cassandre Beaugrand
- Georgia Taylor-Brown
