One Year To Go: The State of Play of Olympic Qualification

The day is drawing closer.

After the First Period of Olympic qualification ended on 27th May 2023, we are now in the Second (and final) Period. When that ends on 28th May 2024, there will be no further avenues through which to make it to Paris.

With less than a year to go, how are the Olympic berths shaping up?

Earlier in the year, we looked at what the start lists would look like for the 2024 Olympic Games in Paris given the state of the rankings. You can read up on the women’s, men’s and relay start lists.

Note that the relay receives 20 of the first 22 slots per gender for Paris (the other 2 are reserved for the hosts, France). As there have been no relay events since January, the provisional qualification rankings remain unchanged in that respect. The interesting aspect of the rankings at this point, then, is not who is in line to qualify. Rather, the intrigue arises from which athletes need to step up.

The focus of this article, then, will be on the key battlegrounds that remain in the race to Paris. In this respect, there are three main points upon which to focus.

There are athletes that are inside the top-30 of the Olympic rankings and are solely blocked by teammates from the same country.

There are athletes ranked outside the top-30 that need to boost their ranking to get a third slot for their country.

Then there are athletes competing for the same New Flag continental slot. As a reminder, New Flag slots take up the final five places. They are assigned to countries that have not already qualified for the triathlon at the Olympic Games. One slot is available to each of the five regions under World Triathlon (Africa, Americas, Asia, Europe and Oceania).

To qualify via the relay or the individual rankings, an athlete must be top-140 in the Olympic rankings. To qualify a New Flag slot, an athlete must be in the top-180 in the World Rankings.

Remember, just because an athlete earns a slot does not mean they will get to take it. Every country will have its own selection policy to add an extra layer of mystery.

The Deep Countries

Men

Only two men inside the top-30 Olympic rankings are not due to qualify. As it happens, both represent France.

Pierre Le Corre and Tom Richard are ranked 21st and 23rd, respectively, but are due to miss out as there are three French athletes ahead of them. Back in January Richard was in line to qualify however he has since been leapfrogged by Dorian Coninx. Along with Coninx, Leo Bergere and Vincent Luis are in a position to earn the slots.

The French contest for selection will be intense. With five men in the top-25, the challenge will not be to qualify slots. (Indeed, the rankings themselves are irrelevant to the French selection). Instead the priority will be to achieve selection by the French Federation. You can read the full French Olympic selection policy here.

Women

The women’s Olympic rankings are even more crowded in the top-30.

Nina Eim (17th), Kirsten Kasper (19th), Kate Waugh (23rd) and Erica Ackerlund (28th) are all at risk of being left out in the cold. In many other countries they would be near shoe-ins to go to the Games. The problem is they aren’t among the three highest ranked athletes for their respective countries.

Then there are a group of athletes outside the top-30 but which are in essentially the same boat as the likes of Eim, Kasper Waugh and Ackerlund. These are athletes that represent Britain, France or Germany which already have three women in the top-30. As such, even if they improve their rankings into the top-30, it will not help them.

Among this pack of athletes are Marlene Gomez-Göggel (31st), Sandra Dodet (32nd), Annika Koch (35th), Mathilde Gautier (43rd), Anabel Knoll (44th), Olivia Mathias (46th), Audrey Merle (48th) and Lea Coninx (57th).

The British, French, German and American selection policies do not rely on the Olympic rankings. For any of the women names above, then, their primary challenge will be to beat their direct competition at selection races rather than to improve their ranking.

The Race For A Third Slot

Men

In this section, we look at athletes that are ranked outside the top-30 that represent countries with only two men due to qualify for Paris). If they can get into the top-30 they could earn a third slot for their country and increase their chances of going to Paris.

Spain will have a crazy fight on their hands for a third Olympic slot.

As things stand, only Antonio Serrat Seoane and Roberto Sanchez Mantecon are currently inside the top-30. Right behind them are David Castro Fajardo (in 32nd) and Sergio Baxter Cabrera (in 33rd). Moreover Genis Grau is in 39th and Alberto Gonzalez Garcia is in 45th.

Any of the above could make it if they improve their ranking. Thereafter the Spanish selection policy will also come into play. You can read about that here.

For Hungary, Gabor Faldum sits in 35th place in the rankings. However with Csongor Lehmann and Bence Bicsak in top-30, he will need to climb a few places to earn a third slot.

Likewise, Max Studer (41st) Simon Westermann (52nd) also need to boost their position as they are behind Adrien Briffod and Sylvain Fridelance.

For Portugal, Vasco Vilaca and Joao Silva are currently the two highest ranked men and both are inside the top-30. To earn a third slot, Joao Pereira (42nd) or Ricardo Batista (53rd) will need to have a big year.

WTCS medallist Morgan Pearson sits in 50th in the rankings, behind Matthew Mcelroy and Seth Rider who occupy 13th and 29th.

Then there is a fuzzy middle ground of athletes that can either will need to get into the top-30 AND will need a compatriot to make it to the top-30 for the country to get three slots.

For Britain, Barclay Izzard is in 56th, behind Alex Yee and Jonathan Brownlee; Brownlee, though, is only ranked 34th.

For Australia, Brandon Copeland is in 57th, behind Matthew Hauser and Luke Willian; Willian is ranked 44th.

For Norway, Gustav Iden is in 59th, behind Kristian Blummentfelt and Vetle Bergsvik Thorn; Thorn is ranked 36th.

For New Zealand, Dylan McCullough is in 60th, behind Hayden Wilde and Tayler Reid; Reid is in 48th.

The Japanese contest will be fascinating. Kenji Nener is ranked 17th while Takumi Hojo is 46th. Right behind are Makoto Odakura (in 47th), Ren Sato (in 55th) and Jumpei Furuya (in 58th).

For each of the above countries, then, they will need two men to break into the top-30 to get a third slot.

There are more men outside the top-60 that aren’t in line to go and need to hunt for the top-30. The last man due to qualify through the rankings is Andreas Carlsson of Sweden in 84th

At this point in time, only France and Germany are due to qualify three men.

Women

Right now, as seen above, Britain, France, Germany and America are due to qualify three women to Paris.

The next closest country to adding a third woman is Brazil. Djenyfer Arnold is ranked 42nd while Vittoria Lopes and Luisa Baptista are currently settled in the top-30. If Arnold can improve her ranking, three slots may be on the cards for the Brazilian team.

Italy and Belgium could qualify a third slot however that will require two of their athletes rising into the top-30.

For Italy, Ilaria Zane is ranked 39th and Costanza Arpinelli is ranked 59th while Verena Steinhauser and Bianca Seregni are currently due to qualify. Zane or Arpinelli could overtake Seregni (ranked 34th) or hit the top-30. (You can also read the full Italian selection policy here.)

For Belgium, Jolien Vermeylen is ranked 55th and behind Valerie Bathelemy and Claire Michel. Michel, though, is ranked 41st so she will also need to rise for Belgium to take three slots.

Anna Godoy Contreras is the last woman due to qualify from 65th in the rankings.

The New Flags

Men

There are no eligible athletes for Africa right now so that slot rolls down to next the new country in Olympic ranking, regardless of continent. At this point in time, the slot would go to Emil Holm of Denmark. He sits 94th in the Olympic rankings.

As South Africa already have Olympic slots, if another male African athlete can make the top-180 Holm will lose his place. However, as of today, there are no applicable athletes in the top-200 of the World Rankings.

For the Americas, Ramón Armando Matute would take the New Flag place courtesy of his World Ranking of 88th. However, his fellow Ecuadorian athlete Juan Jose Andrade Figueroa is in 90th while another compatriot, Gabriel Terán Carvajal, is in 95th. The race to Paris from Ecuador is therefore heating up.

For Asia, Ayan Beisenbayev of Kazakhstan is ranked 78th and would get the slot. The next eligible man is Jason Tai Long Ng of Hong Kong. He is ranked 92nd in the World Rankings.

For Europe, Radim Grebík of the Czech Republic is only one place ahead of the Ukranian Vitali Vorontsov. Grebík’s World Ranking is 98th and he would take the New Flag slot.

Oceania is not due to qualify a New Flag place so their slot rolls down to the Olympic rankings and would go to Felix Duchampt in 95th.

Women

Africa are not in a position to take a New Flag place so their slot rolls down to Maria Carolina Velasquez Soto (69th in the Olympic rankings).

With South Africa already occupying women’s slots, if an other African woman can make top-180 in the World Rankings then they can still take the New Flag place. To that end, Kahina Mebarki of Algeria is ranked 191st and Basmla Elsalamoney of Egypt is 193rd.

For the Americas, Romina Biagioli of Argentina is ranked 80th in the World Rankings. Raquel Solis Guerrero of Costa Rica is the next closest in 84th.

For Asia, Ekaterina Shabalina of Kazakhstan is 48th in the World Rankings. She has quite a buffer over Bailee Brown Hong Kong who is in 121st.

For Europe, Ivana Kuriackova is in line to take the slot from 57th in the World Rankings. Xisca Tous is her closest rival from 61st.

With Oceania not in a place to qualify a New Flag – they have no eligible athletes inside the top-180 – the place rolls to Xinyu Lin of China. Lin is currently 70th in the Olympic rankings.