For countries that still harbour ambitions of sending a Mixed Team Relay to the Paris Olympic Games, the moment of truth has arrived. In two days, the final Olympic qualifier for the relay will take place in Huatulco and the hopes of dozens of athletes will either be realised or shattered.
Nine countries have already earned relay qualification for Paris. France, as hosts, took the first slot while Britain and Germany took the next two automatic places courtesy of their showings at the Mixed Team Relay World Championships in 2022 and 2023, respectively. The next six slots were allocated by dint of the Olympic relay rankings. New Zealand, Australia, America, Switzerland, Italy and Portugal secured these berths.
At the Olympic Relay Qualification Event in Huatulco, two more relay places will be available. Nine teams will line up with hopes of seizing said slots. However, some countries will be more desperate than others.
Spain, for example, do not necessarily need to finish inside the top-2 in Huatulco as they are already in line to send two men and two women to Paris through the individual qualification route. Moreover, they are well-placed in the race to send three men to Paris. As such, they will receive the right to start a relay no matter what happens in Huatulco.
Mexico fall into the same category and are all but guaranteed two men and two women in Paris. As hosts in Huatulco, they will nonetheless race. Brazil and Belgium likewise are due to qualify two men and two women but, with a relay essentially guaranteed in Paris, the two countries have opted to skip the relay qualifier.
Austria are in a similar boat, although they face a more precarious position. As things stand, Tjebbe Kaindl, the second highest ranked Austrian man, is one of the last men due to qualify through the individual rankings and could yet be bumped out at WTCS Cagliari. This would also cost his country a relay slot. On paper, then, Austria do not need to qualify in Huatulco as their individual qualification positions should be enough but to protect both Kaindl and the relay they will thus push for a top-2 finish in Huatulco.
With Spain, Mexico and Austria starting, three of the nine countries racing in Huatulco theoretically do not need to medal. With necessity lying elsewhere, one of the other six starting countries could take the win.
Canada, Netherland, Hungary and Norway are each one athlete short of qualifying two men and two women individually to the Games and so are dependant on Huatulco to send a relay to Paris. Canada could yet be safe if Dominika Jamnicky has a great result in Cagliari next weekend. However, Lotte Miller, Márta Kropkó and Mitch Kolkman are too far back in the Olympic rankings for Norway, Hungary and the Netherlands, respectively.
South Africa and Ecuador are the remaining two countries starting and they do not have realistic shots of qualifying two men and two women.
While the exact start lists for the qualification event are not available (we know which countries are racing but not which athletes), we can gleam some insights from the World Cup start lists.
Spain are the top ranked team and narrowly missed out on qualifying their relay for Paris through the rankings. With the right to start realistically guaranteed anyway, they have opted against sending Olympic qualifiers Miriam Casillas Garcia and Antonio Serrat Seoane. WTCS medallist Roberto Sanchez Mantecon is likewise absent.
The Spanish team will likely be Genis Grau (a former winner in Huatulco), Pelayo Turrez Gonzalez (a European Junior Cup winner in 2023), Sara Guerrero Manso (a European Cup winner last year) and Maria Casals Mojica (who made her WTCS debut in 2023). It is certainly a strong team, but it is not the best Spain could field on paper. This is a reflection of their security in terms of qualification.
As the home team, Mexico will have an incentive to perform irrespective of their projected qualification. They have a large team at the World Cup so it is hard to say who will start. However, like Spain, their top athletes are not present. Rosa Maria Tapia Vidal, Lizeth Rueda Santos and Aram Michell Penaflor Moysen have already earned Olympic selection and are absent, as is World Cup winner Crisanto Grajales.
Austria, the third team with qualification looking rosy on paper, will be at full strength. Their best possible team (in terms of the Olympic rankings) will be present through Alois Knabl, Kaindl, Julia Hauser and Lisa Perterer. They are clearly all in on the relay. However, it should be noted that this same quartet finished 19th at the World Championships last season and their form in the relay has not always been convincing.
South Africa and Ecuador are likewise at full strength. The former will likely race with Henri Schoeman, Jamie Riddle, Vicky Van Der Merwe and Amber Schlebusch while the later will probably field Elizabeth Bravo, Paula Jara, and then two of Juan Jose Andrade Figueroa, Gabriel Teran Carvajal and Ramon Armando Matute.
Canada have a large team in Huatulco and could start Jamnicky, Sophie Howell, Brock Hoel and Mathis Beaulieu. However, the final choice could include several other options like Desirae Ridenour, Liam Donnelly, Clayton Hutchins and more.
South Africa, Canada and Ecuador have deceptively strong teams and could spring an upset. However, on balance their quartets are not quite as strong as those of Netherlands, Norway and Hungary.
The Netherlands will be led by Rachel Klamer, a World Cup medallist in 2023 and the 5th place finisher at WTCS Pontevedra. She will joined either by multiple Continental Cup winner, Barbara De Koning, or Robin Dreijling, who medalled at the European Cup in Caorle last weekend. On the men’s side Richard Murray and World U23 Championships bronze medallist Kolkman look like the probable duo.
Norway will have two male World Cup medallists from earlier this season starting in Vetle Bergsvik Thorn and Casper Stornes. European Games champion Solveig Løvseth will then be paired with Miller. Significantly, this exact team finished 3rd at the relay in Sunderland and 6th at the World Championships last season.
Finally, Hungary will have Zsanett Bragmayer and Karolina Helga Horváth on the women’s side. Only Bence Bicsák is due to start at the World Cup race for the men, shrouding their second relay man in mystery. Right now, Bragmayer is the only returning Hungarian athlete from the team that finished 5th at the World Championships in 2023.
Based on the varying urgency of Olympic qualification and forecasted line-ups, the race feels like it is Norway’s and the Netherland’s to lose.
TriStats Predictions
- Netherlands (Olympic qualification)
- Norway (Olympic qualification)
- Hungary
- Spain
- Austria
