To quote My Chemical Romance, “all teenagers scare the livin’ shit out of me”.
Seldom has that quote been more appropriate than when surveying the start lists for the World Junior Championships. This year, the men’s field in Hamburg is ridiculously deep.
Before forecasting how the race might pan out, and this goes for the women’s preview too, a massive caveat has to stated in that Juniors are liable to do anything. Someone could pop off out of nowhere and claim the win. Likewise a favourite could have an ill-timed dip. Maybe they have a big homework assignment due. You never quite know.
Nevertheless, in the men’s field there are several standouts that are the early favourites to take the win.
The obvious place to start is with the defending champion. Thomas Hansmaennel has been in majestic form this season. He claimed the gold medals at the European Junior Cups in Quarteira and Wels. The former was particularly impressive as he beat several of his closest European rivals for the gold in Hamburg.
To go with that, he won the French Junior title in impressive fashion.
However, it should also be noted that Hansmaennel won the World Junior title last year in a duathlon after the swim was cancelled. At a couple of points this season, he has shown a slight weakness in the swim. Moreover, he can sometimes be prone to an off-day, as was the case at the European Junior Cup in Caorle.
On balance, though, the young Frenchman might have the most balanced skillset of any Junior triathlete in the world. Having won last year, he will know exactly what he has to do this time around.
One name that will pose a major threat to Hansmaennel is Brad Course.
The Australian just keeps getting better and better. He kicked off his year with a 5th place at the Oceania Cup in Wanaka, which by itself would have been a promising result. He then added the Oceania Junior title to his resume.
In Port Douglas, though, he hit a new level entirely as he became the Oceania Senior champion over the Olympic distance. For good measure, he threw in a sub-30 minute 10km to seal the win. Course therefore brings unprecedented speed and strength to the start line in Hamburg.
On a more recent note, he won a silver medal at the European Cup in Holten.
Like Hansmaennel, he could be exposed a little with a fast swim, although neither are weak in the first discipline, so to speak. On the flip side, there is every chance Course takes the field’s lunch money on the bike. Given the year the Australian has had, it is hard to look beyond him.
On the note of Senior success, Mathis Beaulieu is another name to keep an eye on.
The Canadian produced a fantastic performance to win the Americas Cup in Sarasota. He then backed it up with a silver medal at the Americas Cup in Ixtapa. On the Junior front, Beaulieu also came out on top at the Americas Junior Qualification Event in Punta Cana.
He has the running speed to fight with the likes of Hansmaennel and Course while his cycling will have been sharpened by his ventures on the Senior level. Racing in Europe is also familiar to him as he won the European Junior Cup in Tiszaujvaros in 2022.
Andree Buc, the South American Junior champion, will also be in the mix. Like Beaulieu, he has had success at Americas Cup races this year, including a bronze medal in Chinchiná.
Buc finished 2nd behind Beaulieu in Punta Cana but could easily reverse that if he has a good day in Hamburg.
Pelayo González Turrez heads up an impressive Spanish team and has claimed gold medals at the European Junior Cups in Melilla and Izvorani this season. In addition, he won the World Junior Duathlon title with a display of astonishing dominance.
At the same time, Hansmaennel did get the better of González in Quarteira. Nevertheless, both Buc and González have the ability to win in Hamburg.
The five men listed above seem to be the front-runners for the title this year. That being said, they also have teammates that could challenge for the podium.
Hector Tolsa García of Spain won silver medals in Melilla and Izvorani. Nils Serre Gehri of France similarly won silver medals in Quarteira and Caorle. Then there is Jack Crome of Australia who won the European Junior Cup in Holten.
Several other names could be in the mix too.
João Nuno Batista is the World Junior silver medallist from 2021 and won a bronze medal in Quarteira. This season Batista has made appearances in the French Grand Prix which will have prepared him well for the intensity of the event in Hamburg.
Moreover Euan De Nigro won the European Junior Cup in Caorle while Zalán Hóbor recently won the Junior Cup in Tiszaujvaros.
Finally there is the American team. With Carter Stuhlmacher, Luke Anthony, Reese Vannerson and Sullivan Middaugh racing, they will present a real challenge to the rest of the field. It is hard to say which of the American men will be the biggest threat, though, as they all bring different things to the table.
All that can be said is that when the gun goes off in Hamburg, all hell will break loose.
TriStats Predictions
- Brad Course
- Thomas Hansmaennel
- Mathis Beaulieu
- Pelayo González Turrez
- Andree Buc
