Like a pause in a symphony, the women’s WTCS sits poised.
The audience has heard the crescendos that have come before and vaguely know what to expect next, but as the orchestra stirs towards another peak they cannot be sure. They know it cannot be exactly as it has been. Without Flora Duffy and Beth Potter, a new soloist will step forth to guide them to the new high. Prior to that, that came in the familiar guise of Georgia Taylor-Brown. Maybe that will return.
Or maybe it will be something entirely new.
With bated breath, the audience therefore waits. The peak is about to come but how it will look remains a mystery.
In the absence of Duffy and Potter, the winners of the past three WTCS races, there must be a new race winner and a new Series leader. Taylor-Brown is the only source of familiarity on the top of the podium, the only individual the audience knows for sure can lead the chorus.
However, after only finishing 15th at WTCS Abu Dhabi, Georgia Taylor-Brown lost her streak of eight consecutive medals in the Series. Last year she was at her best in Yokohama and a return to that form would make her the overwhelming favourite. For now, though, there is a slight hesitancy to say for sure that Taylor-Brown will lead the way.
Taylor Knibb was the winner the year prior and will be making her first WTCS appearance of the year. The question remains, however, as to whether she will be able to hit her highest notes following a stress fracture.
In 2021, Knibb was awesome, gaining the best part of 2 minutes over the main pack in a breakaway with Maya Kingma on the bike. Should she hit such levels again, it would be hard for anyone else to seize the spotlight from her. Yet, as with Taylor-Brown, there is reason to be uncertain to go with the confidence earned from her past deeds.
Of the recent performers, few shone as brightly as Sophie Coldwell. In Abu Dhabi she was nothing short of brilliant, especially in the first two disciplines. While Potter got the better of her in the end on the run, one thing that stood out was how Coldwell surged on the run to overcome Potter’s first break. She could not repeat that with Potter’s second attack but nonetheless demonstrated how rapidly her running is developing.
After being characterised as more of a swim-biker early in her career, Coldwell is becoming an all-round threat with no real weaknesses. Having not won a race yet, she has yet to prove she can deliver the compelling final solo act.
After the way she seized the day in Abu Dhabi, her time might be arriving shortly.
Maya Kingma, the silver medallist in 2021, will likely be a contender. Although she was not able to fully hit her stride in 2022, there was still plenty of evidence of her ability, not least with her breakaway at WTCS Bermuda with Flora Duffy. With her experience and prior success in Yokohama, she will be one to watch.
Alberte Kjaer Pedersen will arrive in Yokohama on the back of an exceptional 10km performance. Other than that, though, she has been limited in her racing this year due to a concussion. Therfore it is hard to fully gauge where she is at. Her running is evidently in fine fettle but her swim and bike remain under wraps. With the likes of Coldwell and Knibb in the field, those first two disciplines will be vital.
Emma Lombardi has the swimming and cycling ability to match her running and will be a dark horse for the win. A 4th place last year on her WTCS debut was an extraordinary feat and she followed it with a maiden WTCS medal in Cagliari. The Olympic distance clearly suits her and her racing style.
She finished 2022 and started 2023 with 8th places in Abu Dhabi which were also very good results. It would be foolish to write her off although given her age there will likely be a little more variance in her performances at this stage in her career. Lombardi could win but she could also finish 8th.
Naturally anyone can have an off-day but with Lombardi being so young, she can have a good day and still finish a little behind. She is still only 21 and so that consistency will come. For the time being, she has too few data points to fully project how she will perform.
With Lena Meißner withdrawing from the race, Laura Lindemann will be the leading German woman. A crash ended her day prematurely last year but Lindemann could do well. Similarly Taylor Spivey and Summer Rappaport will be confident after great performances in Abu Dhabi.
Ultimately, the race will be guided by a series of focal points.
In the swim, the likes of Bianca Seregni will realistically set the pace. Coldwell should be able to go with her while Yifan Yang is another fast swimmer that will be able to assist in stretching the field.
Once the athletes exit T1, the race will hinge upon the positions of Kingma and Knibb. If they are close and to Seregni and Coldwell, a lot of the field will wave goodbye to their chances. Otherwise, the main pack will likely hope that Knibb and Kingma tow them to the leaders.
It is also conceivable that a second pack including the likes of Knibb, Kingma and Taylor-Brown could then chase and even bridge across without the bulk of the field.
TriStats Predictions
A fresher Taylor-Brown and a return to her standard levels of excellence appear to be on the cards. Some kind of breakaway involving her, Coldwell, Knibb and Kingma (plus others) also could materialise. After her injury, Knibb might not be at full capacity yet, particularly on the run. Meanwhile Lombardi has the talent to make the breakaway but inexperience could see her miss it.
Plenty of women can win this race, but last year’s victor is probably the favourite.
- Georgia Taylor-Brown
- Sophie Coldwell
- Maya Kingma
- Emma Lombardi
- Taylor Knibb
