Hayden Wilde was peerless in the men’s field on his way to gold at the New Plymouth World Cup. After a difficult day at WTCS Abu Dhabi when he was let down by his equipment, he was quickly able to shake off any lingering disappointment and reaffirm his credentials as a challenger for the world title this season.
En route to victory, he logged the fastest bike and run splits of the day and at no point did he look troubled by the challenge of those around him.
Wilde’s prowess on the bike and run, though, have been known for some time. Last year he logged one of the fastest 5km splits ever in the WTCS while his Red Bull helmet is usually at the business end of bike packs.
Instead, it is his swim that will determine whether he will win the WTCS.
Wilde noted that over the winter his swim would be a focus of his; that focus was likely redoubled after the performances of the French-driven breakaways in Bermuda and Abu Dhabi last year. Moreover, the French men have given indications of a swim-led strategy this year. Vincent Luis and Dorian Coninx almost made it stick at the first WTCS race of 2023.
So, what did Wilde’s swim in New Plymouth show?
For starters, he emerged in 19th place, 20 seconds down on the lead duo of Ricardo Batista and Nicolò Strada. To be a little more generous, we could say Wilde was in joint-17th place as he was given the same swim split as Brandon Copeland and Oscar Dart.
On the plus side, Wilde was only 10 seconds behind noted strong swimmers Alessio Crociani and David Castro Fajardo. Moreover, he was only 9 seconds behind compatriot Dylan McCullough for whom the swim is a point of strength.
In terms of raw time, Wilde may have hoped to have limited his deficit a little more than he did. 20 seconds is on balance a bigger gap than he would have hoped to concede. However, the pace was evidently high given the frequent small gaps throughout the field.
Given the fast swim and that he managed to hang on to some more established swimmers, the time is not too problematic.
On the one hand, it should be noted that New Plymouth did not have WTCS level depth in the swim. On the other hand, it was a sea swim which almost always penalises “weaker” swimmers. The fact that Wilde was able to keep close in the sea to someone like Crociani who was joint-second out of the water in Abu Dhabi earlier this month is highly promising.
The bigger positive Wilde can take is his positioning. He seemed to stay out of trouble in New Plymouth and placed himself comfortably in the top third of the field.
One thing he noted after WTCS Abu Dhabi was how smooth he felt and how that was not reflected in his time. It appears that a similar thing happened in New Plymouth. Wilde looks like he got his positioning right in the swim and managed his effort almost to perfection.
His positioning is the therefore the first of two big positives to take from Wilde’s swim.
At the elite level, almost the entire field is fast in the water. Unless an athlete possesses exceptional speed, forcing the pace will be unlikely to yield great rewards. Indeed, a taxing swim effort will probably prove costly later in the race.
As a result, good positioning is imperative and being able to navigate the swim is perhaps as important as raw speed.
The second positive is his smoothness. We cannot actually view the swim in isolation. Rather, it has to be taken in tandem with T1 and the first two kilometres of the bike.
Interestingly, Wilde seems to be setting himself up as an accomplished exponent of the early stages of the bike. He is maximising the smoothness of his swim to be as fresh as possible on the bike. In doing so, he will be better able to match the crucial early surges on the bike and make the front group.
At the WTCS Final in Abu Dhabi, he nearly pulled that off. At WTCS Abu Dhabi this year, he seemed like he would have been able to do it but for a puncture. And now in New Plymouth he has done it again.
Therefore, the raw split is not the key to Wilde’s swim. His positioning and smoothness are the two primary factors that will determine his success.
He can thus take great heart from his swim in New Plymouth as it bodes well.
That being said, there is one final point to note. New Plymouth showed his approach to the swim will work over the Sprint distance. He may have to try to limit his deficit to the leaders to 15 seconds rather than 20 seconds in the WTCS, but the strategy is otherwise sound.
The question is whether it will work over the Olympic distance as the field gets stretched out further over the 1500m. Maybe in the longer race, Wilde will have to adjust things. Maybe he won’t. We will find out soon in Yokohama.
Either way, the early takeaway is that Wilde is putting his money where his mouth is in the water.
