Gwen Jorgensen has been added to the women’s start list for the WTCS Final in Pontevedra. With her inclusion, she now has the perfect opportunity to cap what has already been a sensational month.
Her recent form has left some observers scratching their heads. Where did she come from? And more importantly, where is she going? Not since Cotton Eyed Joe was on the scene have those two question preoccupied minds like this.
Before September, Jorgensen had enjoyed a very good comeback to the sport. She nabbed a silver medal at the Huatulco World Cup. She popped an impressive run split in the repechage at WTCS Hamburg. Of the greatest importance to her medium term planning, she also stepped up on the American Mixed Team Relay.
Having been retired from triathlon for over six years, she has improved as the season has worn on. Even with that caveat, her recent form has been on a new level altogether and left some a little confused as to from where it has come.
Perhaps it should be no surprise that an Olympic champion and double world champion is quite good at the sport. Still, she was a retired athlete that became a mother in between. Anyone that honestly expected her to win consecutive World Cups this month probably should be asked what the next lottery numbers are, because it was not on most people’s vision board.
Jorgensen will therefore arrive in Pontevedra hunting a third consecutive win and the question of how far her form will go awaits. Is it crazy to say that another win could even be in the realms of possibility?
Both of her triumphs in Valencia and Karlovy Vary came over the Olympic distance. That is an important thing to note. It may be tempting to say the two races will have sapped her. Karlovy Vary is particularly brutal. Alternatively, she will now be battle-hardened and in the groove ahead of Pontevedra.
Naturally, her running prowess is what stood out in her wins. However, there were plenty of hints that something special could be in store at the WTCS Final.
The most important aspect was her swim. If we look back to her WTCS return in Cagliari, her swim is ultimately what sunk her day. After a sub-standard showing, she was subsequently lapped out of the race.
In Valencia and Karlovy Vary, she showed she had patched the vulnerability.
At both races, she was among the ten fastest women in the water. In Valencia, that put her a handful of seconds behind Jolien Vermeylen who is, on paper, one of the best swimmers in the sport. She was also right beside Mathilde Gautier, herself a tremendous swimmer.
The Valencia start list was not the biggest in the world, so Jorgensen may have escaped some of the fighting that can be expected at the Final.
Karlovy Vary, though, confirmed that her swim is firing on all cylinders. She did not keep up with the breakaway quartet. Let’s be honest, very few people keep up with Bianca Seregni in the water. In the Paris Test Event, the race with the deepest field of the season, virtually the entire field was dropped by Seregni. Only eight women conceded less than 20 seconds.
The key in Karlovy Vary is that Jorgensen was able to ride up to the front. The initial burst of pace out of T2 has been a weakness of hers this season and the intensity will be greater in Pontevedra than at the World Cup level. Yet the signs in the swim have been very promising and Jorgensen has executed her races well.
When it comes to the swim at the Final, one significant factor could be her placement on the pontoon. Jorgensen will be at the end of the start list and so will be among the last to choose her spot. If she gets a bad start, her chances could be jeopardised.
If Jorgensen nails her swim, though, and makes the right pack, her running is right where it needs to be.
To zoom out to the bigger picture, a win (or medal) in Pontevedra would be a great achievement. However, Jorgensen needs a medal if she is to lock in her place on the American Olympic team.
A top-10 would be a breakthrough, but it would not be enough. How far, then, can the Jorgensen hype train go? Can she carry her World Cup form to a Pontevedra podium?
Translating World Cup form to the WTCS is never easy. Without wishing to call anyone’s results underwhelming, there are a litany of examples to back that up.
Jorgensen will also be confronted with Beth Potter and Cassandre Beaugrand. Even in a perfect race for the American, it is hard to see her taking down those two. Realistically speaking, that puts her in a race for bronze.
On the flip side, beyond Potter and Beaugrand, the field is wide open.
To run through the absences, Flora Duffy will not be there, neither will Taylor Knibb, and both could have hurt Jorgensen in the first two disciplines. Georgia Taylor-Brown, the winner of WTCS Cagliari, is also out with an injury.
There will be plenty of dangers to Jorgensen. Sophie Coldwell won WTCS Yokohama and if she can recapture that form she will be hard to stop. Taylor Spivey was masterful in multiple breakaways earlier in the year and is a direct Olympic rival to Jorgensen. The French duo of Emma Lombardi and Leonie Periault cannot be discounted, nor can the Paris Test Event medallist, Laura Lindemann.
No one is suggesting Jorgensen is a shoo-in to medal in Pontevedra. The saner minds would be sceptical that she can in fact make it a third medal in a row.
And yet, the hype train calls all the same.
The question is, is it time to board?
